Best of 2013: Visual Effects & Makeup

What do you know, twice in one day!

Best Visual Effects

• Timothy Webber, et. al. for Gravity, for its prodigious and utterly phenomenal force of power, staging every effects' painstaking detail across an array of new, authentic settings, while richly culminating the vastness of its protagonist's surroundings.

• Chris Godfrey, et. al. for The Great Gatsby, for better and worse, aiding Luhrmann's particular brand of glamour and extravagant artifice to bring Fitzgerald's world to life, using digital intervention to induce most of the fabulous locations, color schemes and party guests.

• Scott Farrar, Matt Johnson, et. al. for World War Z, for flavoring zombie warfare with bold and plausibly chaotic visual concepts (the zombies climbing the wall) and personality, keeping scenes like the airplane crash and the rooftop escape so in tune with its action rhythms.

Honorable Mentions are few and far between, since I missed a good handful of the films that usually make a play for this category (The Lone Ranger, Oblivion, Pacific Rim) and some of the ones that I did see (Elysium, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Thor: The Dark World) have some stimulating moments of CGI, but just as many bombastic or clunky ones. That being said, there was a lot to admire about the large-scale movements in Man of Steel and Iron Man 3, both of which strike me as minor entries into the Superhero genre (well, Man of Steel is a lot worse than Iron Man 3), but also happen to contain some of the genre's most sleekly executed, effects-driven passages in some time. I chose to revert back to the old rules of the Academy for this category, limiting myself to three nominees considering the scarcity of possibilities, but if the inconsistency bothers you that much, you can place those two in the last slots. Star Trek Into Darkness also has some galvanizing moments of visual extravagance, but to be honest, if I were asked I wouldn't be able to distinguish any of them from its predecessor. Meanwhile, Oz the Great and Powerful manages to avoid the garish pitfalls of its similarly conceived cinematic cousin, Alice in Wonderland, with some truly eye-catching visuals, but I thought a lot of the character designs fell flat. And on a much smaller scale, Post Tenebras Lux and John Dies at the End evoke two strong, thematically vital and singular visual ideas through CGI (the "Red Devil" and the soy sauce, respectively), and, saving Gravity, easily top any of the previously mentioned films in sheer technical ingenuity, for sure.

And those are literally all of the films that I seriously considered from what I've seen.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Ma Kalaadevi Ananda, Adruitha Lee, et. al. for 12 Years a Slave, for acing subtle gradations of scarring and labor-induced grime, leaving room for its stony illustrations of devastating, granitic and paralyzing depictions of cruelty to count for a lot.

• Lori McCoy-Bell, Evelyne Noraz, et. al. for American Hustle, for so many variations on deliciously belabored character beats, deceitfully echoed through arduously composed, era-specific styles.

• Kate Biscoe, Marie Larkin, et. al. for Behind the Candelabra, for not only nailing the prosthetic achievements drawn from the plastic surgery story arch, but for lending them such unexpected poignancy as the characters age with them, and also for the convincing look of Liberace.

• Gretchen Davis, Yvette Rivas, et. al. for Blue Jasmine, for smartly painting the casually fabulous posturing of Jasmine in the flashbacks (also the crucial handsomeness of Baldwin's character) and allowing it to slowly build to that indelible park-bench meltdown, displaying her ruined dye-job.

• Nicki Ledermann, Cassandra Saulter, et. al. for Inside Llewyn Davis, for expressing lived-in character detail with Llewyn's raggedy, slightly graying hair and understated aging lines of his face, telling mournful prior chapters to Llewyn's life all on their own.

Yes, I technically dipped into the TV world with Behind the Candelabra, but I figured I'd let it slide, considering that this is the supposed swan song of a big-time celebrity director that premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and had a theatrical release across the pond, so it's status as a "TV Movie" is arbitrary at best. Besides, not to spoil everything, but this is the only place it will be recognized.

Honorable Mentions to the makeup teams behind The Bling Ring's flashily groomed nuances; Antiviral's satirically brazen realizations of the latest lines in celebrity flues and cold sores; War Witch's haunting and mythic conjuring of maybe-hallucinated/maybe-real band of spirits; Dallas Buyer's Club's low-budget tackling of declining health (even if it could use a scene or two of visibly sick patients), Lovelace's bouncy, texturized locks and fun 70s styles in the American Hustle vein; The Broken Circle Breakdown's abstract yet character-illuminating tattoos; The Grandmaster's beautifying knack for period work, especially in regards to the always-gorgeous Tony Leung; Berberian Sound Studio's sumptuous gothic overtones; and A Hijacking's juxtaposition of weary, bureaucratic guises and increasingly decomposing maritime men.

Best of 2013: Film Editing & Sound

Three categories down, 14 more to go. This can't possibly end badly.

Best Film Editing

• Joe Walker for 12 Years a Slave, for sheer clarity of experience and emotion, the compact narrative beats and obscure passing of time heightening the urgency of Solomon's horrifying plight while allowing room for its sobering patches of hesitations and revolving evocation of a specific place in history.

• Annette Dutertre for Bastards, for weaving intricate strands of constricting narrative threads and elusive character motivations/perspectives, and for always finding new ways to keep Denis's typically elliptical style suggestive yet haunted by queasy premonitions and devastating reveals.

• Sarah Flack for The Bling Ring, for sustaining wizardly control over Coppola's dizzying rhythms, patterns, and individual panics, characteristics and connections of her privileged, seemingly consequence-free group of adolescent thieves.

• Roderick Jaynes for Inside Llewyn Davis, for deploying its deceptive, ingeniously conceived two-ply structure with the doleful, dark-circled finesse of a richly textured folk song, the chilly longueurs and daily circumstances of Llewyn's life enriching one another so gracefully.

• Roger Barton & Matt Cheese for World War Z, for making those elaborate action setpieces brutal and expansive in scope, pardoning the cobbled-together structure with palpable tension, restless pacing, and surprising stakes.

Honorable Mentions begin with Pete Beaudreau for All is Lost and Gordon Grinberg & Alexandre Moors for Blue Caprice who are all so crucial to nurturing their films' most compelling moods and moments, steeping them in physical and psychological immersion, respectively; Adam Nielsen for A Hijacking and
Christopher Rouse for Captain Phillips, both of whom tackle thematically opposite Somali pirate films, but skillfully juggle airtight precision and emotional and political implications; Douglas Crise for Spring Breakers' most potent and hypnotic sequences, deep-sea-diving into the strange but specific world that Debie creates in his images; AJ Edwards, Keith Fraase, Shane Hazen, Christopher Roldan & Mark Yoshikawa for To the Wonder, accumulating Malick's more "minor" ideas/concepts and dilating them into a singular, restless, geographically expansive and deeply personal tale of decaying relationships, despite the occasional ineloquent passage; and Jennifer Lame for injecting Frances Ha with clever, thoughtfully assembled comedic beats and uncontainable bouts of energy that help to layer a frustrating but lovable protagonist. 

I also admired various aspects of Antiviral, Gravity, Museum Hours, The Selfish Giant, and Upstream Color's cutting, but I have to start drawing the line somewhere. Great year for this category. (I don't know who I'd choose if I included winners on these lists, honestly. All so good!)

Best Sound (Mixing & Editing)

• Steve Boedecker, Richard Hymns, et. al. for All is Lost, for keeping the film captivating and aurally trenchant as it summons everything from the tranquil but increasingly hazardous lapping water to the mundane sounds of clanking metal and flapping sails to intensify life-or-death situations.

• Joakim Sunstrom, et. al. for Berberian Sound Studio, for deliciously playing its concept to the rafters and delivering on the ambiguous taste-testing of gruesome and euphonious sounds of gushing, stabbing, screaming and gouging, alike.

• Skip Lievsay, et. al. for Inside Llewyn Davis, for allowing the soundtrack to evoke the Coens' specific vision of 1960s Greenwich Village, while also exhibiting the directing duo's flair for artful proficiency and memorable sonic motifs, and for Isaac's beginning/ending ballads.

• Benjamin Burger, Erik Branting, et. al. for Mother of George, for capturing the aural sensibilities of the local rhythms, textures and traditions of the central couple's community with tact and piquant cultural estrangement.

• Aaron Glasscock, et. al. for Spring Breakers, for transcending the film beyond its surface-level squalor and delivering a mystical synthesis of pop, electronica and internal monologues that take a life of their own.

I understand and find value in the reasons that AMPAS separates the two categories (Editing being the creation of aural elements and Mixing being the finished soundscape (i.e. music and dialogue mixed together), but I like to recognize all aspects of the sound as used in the final film with my awards.

Honorable Mentions are led by the equally essential sonic textures showcased in Gravity and World War Z, both of which feel insane to leave out of the top 5 considering how the contributions of the sound teams are partially imperative in making these films the spectacles that they are. A few rungs down on the list of expected Best Sound nominees include the constantly shapeshifting work in the fishing industry documentary, Leviathan, which is arguably more interesting than the previous honorable mentions from an aural standpoint, but, regardless, is still a wonder of odd and rigorous sensory immersion; Upstream Color which employs the same level of Carruthian mystery/profundity/indiscernibility in its aural concepts as it does in its visual concepts, enabling the film's uniquely warped consistency; and, weirdly enough, The Conjuring, along with other films of its generic ilk, are regularly excluded from recognition in this category, despite managing a number of relentless, head-swerving techniques of suggesting tension and terror. I did enjoy the "louder" aural elements of other big movies outside of Gravity and World War Z, such as Captain Phillips, Iron Man Three, Man of Steel, and Star Trek Into Darkness, but none of those quite reached the heights of the other Honorable Mentions for me. 

Best of 2013: Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips, for lending invaluable, self-effacing resonance to a film that can feel overconcerned with depicting its harrowing factual details, outfitting this stock villain role with reckless desperation, sympathetic idealism, and unpredictability.

• James Franco for Spring Breakers, for finally utilizing his stuntiness and showboating to create an indelible act of star transformation, keeping Alien electric and essential even when the film is basically handed to him, and for the pistol fellatio.

• James Gandolfini for Enough Said, for his many subtle and selfless variations on bearish modesty, moving so gracefully with the generic beats and tart-ish rhythms of the script, equal amounts of bashfulness and charm, sweetness and resentment, and romantic bliss and heartbreak.

• Peter Kazungu for Paradise: Love, for gently suggesting a limit to Munga's preservation of Teresa's ideal perception of how he should love her, while managing to retain the ambiguity of whether or not he's acting entirely out of self-interest.

• Ben Mendelsohn for The Place Beyond the Pines, for keeping Robin's fluctuation between compassion and selfishness interesting where it could just as easily tip into contrivance, the sensitivity he shows around Jason, and the intelligence and experience he exudes in planning his heists.

Honorable Mentions: F. Murray Abraham, who's haunting, wise, and intuitive in Inside Llewyn Davis, earning every second of this one-scene wonder kind of role that is usually hand-delivered to other, more overembellishing Coen collaborators; Keith Stanfield for being one of two performers to successfully navigate the dubious patchwork of Short Term 12 to an emotionally honest and carefully proportioned characterization; Alec Baldwin for lending Blue Jasmine its simplest and most plausible side character, tacitly suggesting his appeal to and frustration with the titular protagonist, their relationship emerging as the film's most thoughtfully realized; Ben Foster for bordering the line between Patrick's genuine kindness and his stalker-like creepiness in Ain't Them Bodies Saints while generously keeping the central dramatic tensions at a keenly steady simmer. Outside of the states offered three more exceptional first-time performances from amateur actors that never quite top Abdi's or Kazungu's but are still honorable mention-worthy, ranging from the lived-in, slightly self-deprecating corporate fatigue of real-life pirate negotiator Gary Skjoldmose Porter in A Hijacking, the unsettling pathos provided by War Witch's antagonist-turned-ally-turned-beloved nailed with aplomb by Serge Kanyinda, and the graciously understated naturalism of Elyes Aguis in Asghar Farhadi's otherwise overstated The Past, landing, arguably, the film's most complex and frustrating character. 

I didn't forget Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club, Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave or Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Steet, all of whom obviously attracted a large, passionate fanbase. I just couldn't get as excited about the first two when there are far more interesting aspects to their respective films, while I thought Hill gave a frankly lazy performance, riffing on and calling attention to every odious characteristic of his character, avoiding every opportunity to make them interesting or in any way of a challenge for the actor to pull off. I'd take him in 21 Jump Street everyday over either of his nominated works (though, I am a fan of his performance in Moneyball).  They'll have to settle for their Oscar wins/nominations, I suppose. Bradley Cooper I also left off intentionally, but for different reasons than the other three. Just wait around for my Lead Actor preferences!

Oscar Time! Predictions and Preferences

Best Picture

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave, though I fully concede that this is all wild guesswork. Wouldn't be shocked if preferential balloting gave Gravity or American Hustle the edge.

My Vote: The complex sympathies and observations of 12 Years a Slave give it an easy boost over its fellow nominees for my money, but I actually like both Gravity and American Hustle enough that if they were to win I wouldn't be totally miserable. Either way, I think we'll have our first worthy winner since The Hurt Locker.

Best Director

Prediction: Was toying with McQueen, but I'm going with the boring pick in Cuaron...

My Vote: ...which isn't to say that it would be an undeserved win, both as a form of recognizing his career and recognizing the sheer immersive and virtuosic technical achievement of his film. But that's also not to say that I wouldn't be a Steve McQueen voter at the end of the day.

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction/My Vote: I'm, perhaps unwisely, ignoring the theory that members will finally want to reward David O. Russell in some form (to which I ask, where were these people with I Heart Huckabees?) and will instead go with my initial feeling that their love for both Spike Jonze and Sci-fi Romances of the twee-spun high-concepts variety (hi, Eternal Sunshine) will pull through in Her's favor. And I'm keeping each of my fingers crossed that this will happen, not only because of my admiration for Jonze's lovely and imaginative if a bit on-the-nose script, but because his Globe speech was sweetness and modesty personified and I'd love to see him on stage again. Such a cutie-pie, too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction/My Vote: A little part of me is considering whether The Wolf of Wall Street's adamant band of followers will want to see it rewarded here, resulting in a reverse Precious-over-Up in the Air-style upset over 12 Years a Slave (insofar as the surprise win for Wolf would not be deserved or welcomed...well, at least by me), especially considering that this is the only real place that it has a chance to upset. But unless we're overestimating how much people love 12 Years a Slave, this should be its most secure win of the night. Also, I have problems with all of the nominated scripts, 12 Years a Slave's extending to iffy dialogue and dubious writing conceits, but it handily tops its competitors in terms of emotional investment and wise choices in construction.

Best Actress

Prediction: As welcome as I'd be to the idea of this category being Amy Adams and Cate Blanchett neck-and-neck for the win (or even more bliss-inducing would be a year where Adele Exarchopoulos is the full-on favorite to win, but that's neither here nor there), I just don't see any outcome that doesn't involve the latter emerging victorious after sweeping nearly every precursor with nary a complaint from anyone. In the unlikely chance that she doesn't win, will there be any sort of way for me to avoid the people claiming that the Dylan Farrow scandal is what ruined it for her? I. just. can. not.

My Vote: I'm totally ready for Cate Blanchett to Sandra Bullock or Daniel Day-Lewis her way to the sweetest and most endearing speech of the night again, winning for a performance that I like/love a lot, but would not have voted for personally. At heart, I'll really be rooting for Amy Adams to pull off an upset, who, as I implied above, was showing potential to do just that when American Hustle was really gaining steam, but ultimately peaked a little too late. Her shifty and delirious rapport with what makes Sydney so desirable to both Irving and Richie, along with the challenging task of evoking her own shapeshifting ideas of what her "real" feelings towards them are through the multiple facades she bears throughout the film provides Hustle a palpable core, even when the movie is focused on the surface levels of the con. Streep is also quite good in August: Osage County and would be a close runner-up.

Best Actor

Prediction/My Vote: Another category with murmurings of a possible Wolf of Wall Street upset by way of Leonardo DiCaprio's highly entertaining if just short of illuminating performance. While I don't mean this as a slight against DiCaprio since this is his first performance since The Departed where I found the hype to be completely justified, but I'm finding it hard to get totally excited about the "It's his time!" chantings when Matthew McConaughey so nimbly sifts a fully-fleshed and multi-shaded protagonist in Ron Woodruff through his freshly twisted movie-star persona while subtly tracking and concealing Ron's possible emotional and ideological renovations and avoiding any stilted or calculated perceptions of him as a character or character type. I think the novelty of his total career transformation alone will keep him as the one to beat, let alone the precursor support and momentum.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction/My Vote: The only category that presents itself with much of a challenge in predicting. On the one hand, we have to ask if we really think that a movie with this much support from the acting branch will actually go home without an acting Oscar (if not Oscarless, altogether), while on the other hand, we should also ask if we really expect Jennifer Lawrence to win two years in a row, so soon after we were asking if she had to win for that performance. I do think that the Bale inclusion speaks volumes about how much they loved it, but I think systematically speaking that the Academy knows that a second win for Lawrence would be bad for her career, while a win for the career-blossoming Lupita Nyong'o can only be a positive thing at this point (and in Lawrence's defense, she's trying her hardest to keep people from voting for her). My thinking/hope is that the indelible textures of Nyong'o's performance and the slight advantage in momentum will work in her favor.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Jared Leto, who probably would've won the BAFTA if he were actually nominated, which is my roundabout way of saying that he isn't losing.

My Vote: But oh, if only this race had a fraction of the mystery that Supporting Actress has, I'd actually be really excited to see how this race would turn out since, barring Jonah Hill, this is a pretty great lineup. To elaborate on my feelings towards Hill, I thought he hammers home the fact that his character is Fucking Disgusting a little too hard for me to find any form of plausibility behind his affectation. And I say this as a genuine fan of Hill, finding his performances in 21 Jump Street and his previously nominated work in Moneyball to be his simplest and best performances. Leto would probably take fourth place in my rankings, mainly due to the fact that I feel the need to revisit his film and test out the justified concerns of ideology and tastefulness, despite liking his performance overall, particularly in regards to how much he adds to the tacitness of Rayon and Ron's relationship. 12 Years a Slave's script lets Fassbender down on occasion when it reduces Epps down to a device through which we see just how evil slave owners were instead of an actual character, but the performance's best moments also come from the most visible acts of menace and malevolence, leaving just enough open for us to see how even he feels about his treatment towards his "property". For me, though, the clear MVPs of the category are Barkhad Abdi and Bradley Cooper, both of whom are arguably leads but totally walk away as the most memorable and potent elements of Captain Phillips and American Hustle, respectively (in movies that are full of memorable and potent elements, at that), regardless of category placement. I'll have more to say on these two when I reveal my dream ballot in the coming weeks.

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: Disney will likely garner it's well-earned first win in this category with Frozen, which makes me happy even if it isn't my preference.

My Vote: I just saw it yesterday, but The Wind Rises managed to top its stellar group of fellow nominees that I managed to see (yes, The Croods is surprisingly good, too!). Miyazaki's quietly touching and appropriately melancholic swan song is sentimental and blunt at times, but it circulates an ode to creativity and imagination while chasing thornier ideas about the worlds (whether real or fantasized) that its subject inhabits. Go see it now that it's playing everywhere.

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction/My Vote: I never would've predicted how much people would get into The Great Beauty. I liked it fine, finding the narrative and flash-chic embellishments to prove more affecting as it went, but otherwise I was not able to get that into it, and struggled to see the fervor that a lot of people who's opinions I respect feel towards it. At least it's better than The Hunt. (Sorry Mads Mikkelson)

Best Documentary

Prediction: 20 Feet From Stardom, for it's accessibility and arrangement of tuneful, crowd-pleasing confessionals that is looking like a Searching for Sugar Man situation where they ignore heavier subjects like The Square or Dirty Wars for something more wafer-y.

My Vote: Confession: I've actually only seen my predicted winner and Joshua Oppenheimer's The Act of Killing, which, if you've seen my Top 10 list, you know I'm gonna be rooting for it. I had every intention of catching The Square since it has the most likely chance at spoiling, but in terms of a brazen, stomach-churning relationship with its subject, I can't imagine much will top Killing zt the end of the day.

Best Cinematography

Prediction/My Vote: I know we're all over the idea of CGI-heavy movies being the instant favorite to win this category with this being the fifth year in a row that such a feat could occur (the past winners being, for the sake of example: Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception, and Avatar), and yes, Emmanuel Lubezki should very well have won for his past (and even better) endeavors, but I'm finding myself hard-pressed to not only come up with a defense against his probable win for Gravity, but also to come up with one for this work being any less consequential because of the technology utilized. The ways that Lubezki manages to work within the CGI with light and movement are the easy highlights of Gravity and are what make it the physical as well as the emotional ride that it is.

Best Costume Design

Prediction/My Vote: The ways that American Hustle and The Great Gatsby's costumes loudly call attention to themselves with classy and flashy digs left behind and tossed-off, respectively, either one could viably take this, but I'm giving Hustle the slight edge since I'm feeling skeptical that it will walk home empty-handed.

Best Film Editing

Prediction/My Vote: This is a bit of a tough call, considering that 1. We don't have a clear idea on who the Best Picture winner is going to be this year (which is usually their go-to pick), and 2. We also don't know if this will be an instance where they decide to go with what was "Most Edited" (hi, Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), in which case they would go with Gravity continuing its large haul in the technical categories, whether it takes Best Picture or not. But since I'm going with 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture, I'm going out on a limb with a win here, as well.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Prediction/My Vote: Haven't seen The Lone Ranger yet, but with all of the hoopla regarding its budgetary constraints and considering its the only Best Picture nominee in the field (seriously, where is American Hustle?), I think Dallas Buyers Club will ultimately take it.

Best Production Design

Prediction: Another hair-pulling decision as to whether I should go with 12 Years a Slave or Gravity. Maybe Gravity won't fully sweep, but I feel that the much-lauded authenticity of its spaceships and all of those indelible crumbling surfaces that play into all of Bullock's challenging exterior obstacles will give it the win.

My Vote: As much as I like Gravity's production design, I'm still just too ecstatic that all of Her's bold primary colors that merge into a muted, unfussy, and completely plausible portrait of the future was even able to earn a nomination here to root for any other contender.

Best Original Score

Prediction: The fact that Gravity is the most heavily-scored and relies on said score the most to attain each of its compact thrills should easily give it the win here.

My Vote: Throwing some more love towards Her's way, who's mood is lent such intimate delicacy from Arcade Fire's score.

Best Original Song 

Prediction: "Let it Go", which is so catchy, even though I have trouble reading whether the movie plays this moment of isolation as a good thing. These sure are three great songs though, plus U2's hastily-assembled "Oridinary Love".

My Vote: I like "Let it Go" a lot, but "The Moon Song" is ukulele heaven to my ears and only just edges it out as my favorite. I'm not crazy about either as used in the film, though.

Best Sound Editing/Best Sound Mixing

Prediction/My Vote: Gravity releases a vertiginous arsenal of claustrophobic transference and ingenious manipulations of silence and music and should win both categories for that reason.

Best Visual Effects

Prediction/My Vote: I hate to be predictable, but Gravity is pretty spectacular on these grounds alone.

Have fun, everyone!

2013 SAG Live Blog/Predictions

Starting a little late, so I'll provide my predictions of and reactions to the winners as they're announced.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Nyong'o, with Lawrence in a close second.

My Vote: Nyong'o.

Verdict: Nyong'o! She's genuinely touched and bewildered.

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Leto.

My Vote: Gandolfini, just ever-so-slightly over Abdi.

Verdict:  Leto. Dedicates the award to "the Rayon's of the world" and to the late James Gandolfini! It really is a special performance. Leto's speech is sweeter and much less itchily self-conscious of people's perception of him. If only just a tad recited.

Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Prediction: Going out on a limb with Fey. Maybe one last time?

My Vote: Louis-Dreyfuss, though a write-in for Poehler would be seriously considered.

Verdict: Louis-Dreyfuss! Confuses award with Golden Globe and Oscar. Girl, if only!

Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Prediction: Baldwin, for the same reasons as Fey.

My Vote: Baldwin, both for sentimental reasons and because I prefer him to the other nominees, except for Cheadle who the jury is still out on for me, in terms of the show. Though if Burrell and Modern Family were as strong as they used to be then you would expect to see him.

Verdict: Burrell, thanking "everyone who voted for him" and and co-stars. The cuts to the cast show a lot of proud smiles. Just wish I felt that connection with the show now.

Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Prediction: The Big Bang Theory, officially, but now I'm sure it'll be Modern Family?

My Vote: 30 Rock again for sentimental reasons.

Verdict: It's Modern Family. Vergara gives the speech and thanks everyone, including her boobs. She's handily the best amongst that ensemble.

Female Actor: TV Miniseries/Movie

Prediction: I wanna say Hunter, but I think Moss?

My Vote: Hunter, because I love her.

Verdict: Mirren. Praises Moss during speech. I'm watching this thing tomorrow.

Male Actor: TV Miniseries/Movie

Prediction: Douglas in a walk.

My Vote: I think Douglas? I can never decide who is better between he and Damon.

Verdict: Douglas! It's interesting to think how the Best Actor race would've been effected if it was released theatrically.

Female Actor in a Drama Series

Prediction: Washington, unless they're still riding the Danes wave.

My Vote: Washington, because I'm pretty sure I'm gonna love her show when I get around to watching it.

Verdict: Maggie Smith. I was never aware of people's love for this show.

Male Actor in a Drama Series

Prediction: Cranston, because he doesn't need to be cast as Lex Luthor to conquer the world.

My Vote: I think I'm liking what Spacey is doing on House of Cards from what I've seen, but I can't be quite confident since there's rarely anything to cure me of my allergy, outside of L. A. Confidential and parts of American Beauty.

Verdict: Cranston, which is surprising because people are usually so underwhelmed by him.

Ensemble in a Drama Series

Prediction: Breaking Bad.

My Vote: Anything but Boardwalk would be fine.

Verdict: Breaking Bad.

Male Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: McConaughey, which should just about seal everything up.

My Vote: McConaughey, but I like the nominees I've seen (which is everyone but Whitaker) about as much.

Verdict: McConaughey, accompanied by a totally gonzo speech that ties into his overarching message to "keep livin'". My mom said he would make a great minister. LOL

Female Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Blanchett will somehow emerge victorious, I believe.

My Vote: Without Adams in the lineup, Streep is easily preferable in my eyes.

Verdict: Blanchett, acing her speech yet again. "Matthew McConaughey can talk about Neptune, but I can't get five seconds?"

Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Prediction: Fingers crossed for 12 Years a Slave, but I ultimately see American Hustle taking it.

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave, but I don't think these movies necessarily benefit from their ensembles.

Verdict: American Hustle, which doesn't instill confidence in a steady win for 12 Years a Slave. But I actually think that's a good thing.

2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Updated w/ Actual Nominees!)

I promise that my head is not completely stuck in the awards gutter (nor am I personally attacking you or being willfully contrarian in predicting or not predicting anyone's favorite movie, actor, director, etc. lest anyone accuse me of that), but Oscar predictions are a wonderful pastime for me, and I simply love awards season. More specifically I love the nicer parts of award season where you're not an idiot for having less than kind things to say about, oh I don't know, The Wolf of Wall Street. My main point is this: this can be fun and rewarding if we're willing to engage with one another in mature and rational terms that don't end in smug, petty reinforcements of intellectual superiority. And also I will have some less than kind things to say about The Wolf of Wall Street during my commentary (there'll be nice things, too!), so if anyone reading is terribly offended then just remember that Martin Scorsese will probably find some way to cope.

That stuff isn't really important, though. All right: I think I've finally settled on these?

Best Picture
If there are five (in order of likelihood for the purpose of how they delve out their nominations now):

12 Years a Slave; Gravity; American Hustle; Captain Phillips; Nebraska

The rest (also in order of likelihood for the same reason):

The Wolf of Wall Street; Her; Dallas Buyers Club; Inside Llewyn Davis; Fruitvale Station

Alternates:
All is Lost; August: Osage County; Before Midnight; Blue Jasmine; Lee Daniels' The Butler; Philomena; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks

I'm thinking that the PGA-nominated of my predicted ten have the best shots. Unless we consider whether the academy is really gonna rally hard for The Wolf of Wall Steet, Her and/or Dallas Buyers Club, in which case Llewyn Davis could easily grab a safer spot in #6-8, if not the top 5. Wild card: I realize Fruitvale isn't the safest pick, but I'm thinking they could ultimately be affected by the story's immediacy. Plus, there's just something about those Sundance winners.

What Actually Happened: 8/9. Man, now I really need to find a way to see Philomena. It's partially my own fault for not seeing it yet, since the film just looks so unappealing to me. A great movie seems like too much to expect, but maybe Dench will animate it enough? I'm guessing it took the crowd-pleasing slot from Banks (which I also need to see). Not exactly sure why I decided to omit Banks from my predictions in the first place other than not being able to make room for it in place of those buoyant rays of sunshine, Llewyn Davis and Fruitvale, but I guess I'm happy for calling its "snub"? Unless, of course, I end up liking it after I see it this weekend.

Also, I guess from here on out we should just keep predicting nine nominees because every year I always think they might do six or seven or eight (or *gasp* maybe even five), but they have yet to break this tradition ever since they've switched to this system of voting. I'd be fine with going back to 10. I'd be even happier with five!

Best Director
Cuaron, Gravity; Greengrass, Captain Phillips; Jonze, Her;  McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Russell, American Hustle

Alternates:
Chandor, All is Lost; Coens, Inside Llewyn Davis; Coogler, Fruitvale Station;  Payne, Nebraska; Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street; Valle, Dallas Buyers Club

To predict Jonze over Scorsese is probably to make the presumption that the Academy will even connect that deeply with his usually offbeat style, but they often like him (and maybe also realize that Scorsese isn't totally on his game). It's good to take risks.

What Actually Happened: 3/5. The Payne crush continues! I haven't seen Her yet (also this weekend!) but on a fundamental level I was really rooting for Spike Jonze. And, honestly, I was really surprised he didn't make it with Greengrass out of the conversation. Wasn't crazy about what Scorsese was doing in Wolf, either, but I at least get what it is that they like about it, whereas Payne's images just get more and more banal to me. Only this time he slathers them with tacky banjo music rather than tacky ukulele music. Still, I'm madder about Scorsese I suppose.

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle; Dallas Buyers Club; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska

Alternates:
All is Lost; Blue Jasmine; Enough Said; Frances Ha; Fruitvale Station; Gravity; Mud; Saving Mr. Banks

I'm thinking Allen misses in both a crowded field and in a year where the talk is more around the star performance than his script. Remember when he missed for Vicky Cristina Barcelona? Speaking of '08: am I the only one crazy enough to think that Enough Said, Frances Ha, or Mud could pull off a nomination in the vein of Frozen River or In Bruges? That'd be exciting even though I don't care for Mud.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Not much worth getting excited about, that's for sure. There have been worse nominees than Blue Jasmine (and worse that have earned Woody a nomination before, which makes me think even more that I should have predicted him), but over Llewyn Davis? Again, happy for Jonze based purely on the fact that he's Spike Jonze.

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave; Before Midnight; Captain Phillips; Philomena; The Wolf of Wall Street

Alternates:
August: Osage County; The Bling Ring; Blue is the Warmest Color; Lone Survivor; The Secret Life of Walter Mitty; Short Term 12; The Spectacular Now

Not much to say other than that a Bling Ring nomination would be pretty great. If anyone's knocked out I assume it'll be Before Midnight?

What Actually Happened: 5/5. Wasn't crazy about Before Midnight a second time, but I'm happy for these guys!

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Adams, American Hustle; Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Bullock, Gravity; Dench, Philomena; Thompson; Saving Mr. Banks

Alternates:
Delpy, Before Midnight; Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color; Garcia, Gloria; Gerwig, Frances Ha; Larson, Short Term 12; Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said; Streep, August: Osage County

Yes, I'm going with Adams over Streep, but if they really want to shake things up with that fifth spot then Exarchopoulos, Delpy, Gerwig and Larson seem kind of plausible to me. I just wish it wasn't at Streep's expense this time. Why wasn't it this hard with The Iron Lady?

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Streep! I know there were so many first-timers that could have really benefited from that probable fifth slot, but I actually think she's genuinely fantastic in it. Which is surprising since she's usually just so dreadful! Also sad for Emma Thompson, even though I haven't seen Banks yet. I promise this weekend!

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Dern, Nebraska; DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Hanks, Captain Phillips; McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Alternates:
Bale, American Hustle; Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jackman, Prisoners; Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Phoenix, Her; Redford, All is Lost; Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

I'd love for Isaac to pull off a surprise, but DiCaprio's looking more likely. And....I think he would be a worthy contender, too! Maybe Hanks is out instead of Redford?

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Whoa! I like Christian Bale and everything, but I thought he was easily the weakest of Hustle's cast. Did we really have to waste Hanks on him?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Lawrence, American Hustle; Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Squibb, Nebraska

Alternates:
Diaz, Fruitvale Station; Johansson, Her; Paulson, 12 Years a Slave; Roberts, August: Osage County; Robie, The Wolf of Wall Street; Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color; Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Getting some serious "snub" vibes from this category. I'm not sure if Roberts is quite the done deal that people think she is, and Winfrey's losing a lot of steam, whereas Hawkins looks to have an easier shot at riding her co-stars coattails than Roberts, while Spencer could make it in if they really go for Fruitvale.

What Actually Happened: Called the Winfrey snub! So so so so so so so so so so happy for Hawkins, especially after missing for Happy-Go-Lucky. Adds a lot to that relationship with Blanchett. Sort of sad that the Spencer prediction didn't amount to much since Roberts' nomination is egregious category fraud.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Abdi, Captain Phillips; Cooper, American Hustle; Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Gandolfini, Enough Said; Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Alternates:
Bruhl, Rush; Forte, Nebraska; Franco, Spring Breakers; Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks; Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; McConaughey, Mud; Renner, American Hustle

Along with Gandolfini, I also think Hanks has a shot, despite moribund buzz.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Well, what happened was this: the Academy actually felt the need to recognize Hill a second time for smugly playing up every appalling and/or "shocking" aspect of his character, while missing the last chance to nominate James Gandolfini for finding a multitude of layers in his characters' tenderness and finding ways to humanize and complicate all of Albert's flaws and charms. This might be the nomination I'm most outraged by.

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2; Ernest & Celestine; Frozen; Monsters University; The Wind Rises

Alternates:
Full list of eligible contenders. The Croods probably has the best chance at dethroning one of these, I think. Or maybe something like A Letter to Momo?

What Actually Happened: 4/5. The Croods made it in as I thought it very well could've, but over Pixar no less? Do I need to watch this?

Best Documentary
20 Feet From Stardom; The Act of Killing; Blackfish; Life According to Sam; Stories We Tell

Alternates:
Cutie and the Boxer; God Loves Uganda; The Square.... and Dirty Wars! Full list of eligible contenders.

Eagerly crossing my fingers for The Act of Killing and Stories We Tell. I really want to see God Loves Uganda, which seems like a terrific companion piece to Call Me Kuchu for obvious reasons.

What Actually Happened: 2/5. Ouch!

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown; The Great Beauty; The Hunt; Omar; Two Lives

Alternates:
A Day in the Life of an Iron Picker; The Grandmaster; The Missing Picture; The Notebook

The Grandmaster might make it. Of the finalists on the shortlist I'm anticipating The Missing Picture the most. Liked The Great Beauty, but don't really get the love behind The Broken Circle Breakdown beyond its female lead. And the tattoos, of course!

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Happy for The Missing Picture, based solely on the fact that I'm interested in seeing it.

Best Cinematography
12 Years a Slave; All is Lost; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis; Prisoners

Alternates:
American Hustle; Captain Phillips; The Grandmaster; The Great Gatsby; Her; Nebraska; To the Wonder; The Wolf of Wall Street

I'm thinking they really go for All is Lost in the technical categories, but maybe they'll be enticed by The Grandmaster? To the Wonder would be pretty great on a personal note.

What Actually Happened: 3/5. "What to choose? 12 Years a Slave was impressively lit and emotionally enveloping, but Nebraska was shot in B&W so obviously...."

Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; The Great Gatsby; The Invisible Woman; Lee Daniels' The Butler

Alternates:
Dallas Buyers Club; The Grandmaster; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; Inside Llewyn Davis; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks; The Wolf of Wall Street'

Really pulling for an Inside Llewyn Davis nomination. Hustle and Gatsby are my favorites amongst my predictions.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Good day for The Grandmaster and it didn't even make the Foreign Language lineup!

Best Film Editing
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Captain Phillips; Gravity; The Wolf of Wall Street

Alternates:
All is Lost; Dallas Buyers Club; Fruitvale Station; Lee Daniels' The Butler; Nebraska; Philomena; Prisoners; Rush

I'm not ready for this Wolf of Wall Street nomination. I understand that it was a little more challenging for Thelma Schoonmaker to shape the footage in any sort of cohesive way, considering all of those uninspired shots and self-serving improvisations. All of that aside though, I've been so puzzled by the passes the film's received for how utterly flabby and repetitive its representation is. I know this isn't the most original criticism in the world and that it's reductive by it's very principle, but I felt every second of that three-hour running time and I was pretty much feeling the listlessness by the 28th coke-fueled orgy. Other than Wolf, I would probably be fine with these nominees, give or take American Hustle, which has similar pacing issues, but emerged with far more interesting results, I thought.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. A blessing: The Wolf of Wall Street wasn't nominated! An inquiry: Just how close was Valle to making that Director lineup I wonder. Nebraska not showing up here isn't all too surprising, but the Payne nomination and this much support for Dallas Buyers Club is making me wonder.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
American Hustle; Dallas Buyers Club; Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Alternates:
The Great Gatsby; Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; The Lone Ranger

The comb over aside, Adams's curls deserve their own honorary Oscar. I'm fully expecting to at least be wrong about Dallas Buyers Club. I'm terrible with this category.

What Actually Happened: 2/3. Ooh, no Hustle. Not gonna lie, I was kind of expecting that one to walk away with the whole thing. Or maybe I'm just projecting my own bewitched feelings towards Adams' hairdo.

Best Original Score
12 Years a Slave; The Book Thief; Gravity; Philomena; Saving Mr. Banks

Alternates:
All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Her; The Invisible Woman; Man of Steel; Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Oz the Great and Powerful; Prisoners; Rush

It might be strange that I'm going with Banks and The Book Thief over All is Lost and Her since the former I'm not quite as confident about and the latter was basically laughed out of existence, where All is Lost and Her, have much more support and genuine love behind them in terms of their scores. But I'm thinking they won't be able to resist Williams or Newman.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. The best thing about not being a strict Oscar completist is that I am never going to see The Book Thief, and by extension also sparing myself of what I can only assume is another phone-in from Williams.

Best Original Song
"Let it Go" from Frozen; "Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby; "The Moon Song" from Her; "In the Middle of the Night" from Lee Daniels' The Butler; "So You Know What it's Like" from Short Term 12

Alternates:
I just can not with this category. Here's the full list of eligible contenders. (Nominees: Alone Yet Not Alone, Despicable Me 2, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

What Actually Happened: 2/5. Not  sure I even want to know what Alone Yet Not Alone is. Sort of thought the Mandela song was just gonna be a Globe thing.

Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave; The Great Gatsby; Her; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Saving Mr. Banks

Alternates:
American Hustle; The Grandmaster; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis; Lee Daniels' The Butler; The Lone Ranger; Oz the Great and Powerful; The Wolf of Wall Street

Note: Gravity is at #6 in my predictions. I just don't feel confident that they'll go quite so.... minimalist. I don't mean minimal so much in terms of scope, obviously, but in terms of abundance or variations on a handful of sets. It's really good work, though, and I'll simply be thrilled if it makes it.

What Actually Happened: 3/5. Continuing my trumpeting of the yet-to-be-seen-by-me Her because it's just so refreshing to see a film and set design of this ilk make it in this category.

Best Sound Editing
All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Iron Man 3; Rush

Alternates:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Man of Steel; Star Trek Into Darkness; World War Z

What Actually Happened: 3/5. Iron Men are usually so prominent in this category. You'd think with all of those best of the trilogy claims it'd at least get a little more than Visual Effects. I will probably see Lone Survivor eventually.

Best Sound Mixing
12 Years a Slave; All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis

Alternates:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Man of Steel; Pacific Rim; Rush; The Wolf of Wall Street; World War Z

What Actually Happened: 3/5. The Hobbit and Lone Survivor fuck me again! Hooray Inside Llewyn Davis!

Best Visual Effects
Gravity; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3; Pacific Rim; Star Trek Into Darkness

Alternates:
Elysium; The Lone Ranger; Oblivion; Thor: The Dark World; World War Z

I know, I know, Gravity is a pretty big gambit here, but I just have a feeling for these things. I'd be happy if World War Z were to show up.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Honestly not that surprised by Pacific Rim missing out, but I was thinking Elysium would take its spot instead of Lone Ranger.

Golden Globe Predictions (Updated w/ Winners!)

Welcome to the new season of the blog! Pretty busy today (of all days!) to go too in-depth, but I promise that this will only be the start of what I'm hoping to be a better year for this blog than what became of it last year. And I couldn't think of a better day to kick the new season off since tonight is my third favorite holiday of the year.

Best Picture: Drama
12 Years a Slave; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Rush; Philomena

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave. Because even though the cultural significance and star power of Gravity does look as if it could result in a win akin to what Avatar pulled off (insofar as that it didn't leave much of an impact on the race, overall), I'm sort of feeling the 12 Years a Slave thing happening.

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. And why shouldn't it? Not to project my own feelings onto the race, but I thought McQueen's sobering and appropriately heightened evocation of Solomon's plight faces more challenging tasks than Gravity at soliciting sympathy from its audience. And something tells me the HFPA will feel similarly.

Verdict: It's 12 Years a Slave! Which makes me so happy, considering how the night was going.

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy
American Hustle; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska; The Wolf of Wall Street

Prediction: American Hustle. I'm guessing just ever-so-slightly over The Wolf of Wall Street, because people and voting bodies have really been responding to these seriously flawed movies about seriously flawed people.

My Vote: Inside Llewyn Davis. Because even if I am overselling it after only seeing it yesterday, it definitely leaves the other nominated films that I've seen in the dust.

Verdict: American Hustle. One of the producers made some comment pertaining to the plausibility of these characters, which is incredibly mystifying since the lack of plausibility, outside of Adams and Cooper, was partly what I found disenchanting about the movie.

Best Actress: Drama
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks; Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Prediction: Blanchett. Because I'm on a bit of a risk-taking streak as of late.

My Vote: Blanchett. But I haven't seen any of the other nominees except for Bullock, so I'm probably not the best judge. Pretty great performance, even though I'm not quite as over the moon for it as everyone else.

Verdict: Blanchett wins! Surely in a squeaker over Winslet, right?!

Best Actor: Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club; Robert Redford, All is Lost

Prediction: Ejiofor. But maybe it'll be McConaughey?

My Vote: McConaughey. Though, I'll also be ecstatic if Ejiofor wins.

Verdict: McConaughey! Am I the only one who thought this speech was not only muddled, but weirdly postured, too? Like: "I need to protect my image, so I'll skimp all of the ideological criticisms and distance myself from any form of LGBT-related concerns." Noticed it even more with Leto. I guess one could possibly chalk it up to McConaughey being McConaughey.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, American Hustle; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Prediction: Adams. Because the combination of coattail momentum and Streep fatigue are looking more and more in her favor.

My Vote: Adams. And let's not forget that it is a pretty great performance. She easily cuts the most plausible, bruising and wry work out of the tastily rafter-playing ensemble. Streep would be a close second for me. Then Louis-Dreyfuss. Then Gerwig. Then Delpy. Could we have asked for a better lineup?

Verdict: It's Adams! Easily the best speech of the night. A nomination on Thursday would be the greatest back-to-school present I can think of at the moment. Maybe if she knocks out Dench instead of Streep?

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Prediction: Dern. Because even if he doesn't have quite the star power his fellow nominees have, that campaign has really taken off in ways that's probably going to end in him "getting one already!" as per the narrative it's been shooting for.

My Vote: Isaac. Which is the one aspect of Llewyn Davis that I'm not worried that I've oversold.

Verdict: DiCaprio, who I actually like in The Wolf of Wall Street after being stuck in what I considered to be a pretty clear rut creatively (which includes Shutter Island and Django Unchained), and thought he was pretty sincere in his acceptance speech, but the movie as a whole has grown a little more irritating the further I get away from it, despite solid individual scenes. As for Oscar prospects, it's looking like a stronger possibility the closer we get to nominations, but it's just such a mystery to me as to where they're going to lean in this category which has a multitude of strong (and even worthy!) contenders. I'd be happier if the surprise was Isaac, but DiCaprio's fine too.

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; June Squibb, Nebraska

Prediction: Nyong'o. But if they go with Jennifer "Thank God for me" Lawrence then I wouldn't be surprised.

My Vote: Nyong'o. But if I'm partial to Julia "Eat the fish, bitch" Roberts on principle then don't be surprised.

Verdict: Lawrence. I'm cool on the performance at most (though I at least think it's better than what Squibb is doing), but I'm really not looking forward to the vicious backlash waiting for her if she wins a second Oscar. Especially since we're both Louisville natives.

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Daniel Bruhl, Rush; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Prediction: Leto. Because the universal acclaim, momentum, deglam and already-easy level of sympathy  for the character are aligning in his favor.

My Vote: Abdi. Because even though I consider it a lead performance, I still couldn't be happier that he's nominated for such polished, expressive work for a debut.

Verdict: Leto, greeting us with discomfitingly bro-y "Brazillian wax" jokes that ring so false to the sensitive work he's accepting the award for and as a shameless tactic to not be associated with anything "gay". Maybe the next few times will be the charm?

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron; Paul Greengrass; Steve McQueen; Russell; Payne

Prediction: Cuaron. Because if they want to reward Gravity anywhere it'll be here.

My Vote: McQueen. For keeping the harsh, unrelenting truths of history rightly out in the open, even when he gets in his own way occasionally.

Verdict: Cuaron! The various clips of Gravity I saw tonight reminded me even more of what great work he's doing. Thinking he's probably our frontrunner, whether it translates into Best Picture or not.

Best Screenplay
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Her; Nebraska; Philomena

Prediction: American Hustle. Though I could easily see 12 Years a Slave

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. Because it should be obvious at this point.

Verdict: Her, which I'm so excited to see and am simply thrilled for Spike Jonze on principle. Such a sweetheart! And I probably won't tire of looking at him this season.

Best Animated Film
The Croods; Despicable Me 2; Frozen

Prediction: Frozen. Because I honestly can't imagine anyone saying: "Yeah, Frozen was pretty cute, but OMG Despicable Me 2!"

My Vote: Frozen. Because it's the only one I've seen, and the only one I will see.

Verdict: Girl, you know it's Frozen.

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color; The Great Beauty; The Hunt; The Past; The Wind Rises

Prediction: Blue is the Warmest Color. Or maybe The Hunt?

My Vote: The Great Beauty. Because even in its clunkiest embellishments I still found the whole to be riskier and more potent than the only other nominee that I have seen (The Past). I must see Blue is the Warmest Color, which played the Belcourt at the worst possible time for me.

Verdict: The Great Beauty, which surprises me honestly, since it's the most challenging of the nominees and doesn't have quite the hooks that The Hunt or Blue is the Warmest Color have. Maybe The Great Beauty has more support than I initially thought?

Best Orginal Score

Prediction: Gravity. Because people don't seem to think it gets in the way of much of Cuaron's technical ambition.

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. Because I'm not huge on any of the others, and even if it does take a lot of its notes from prior Zimmer scores, it's still incredibly affecting

Verdict: All is Lost, which never really rang quite as prepossessing for me as the technical engineering. It had a few nice touches from what I can remember, though.

Best Original Song

Prediction: Frozen for "Let it Go". But who knows with this category.

My Vote: "Please Mr. Kennedy", if only for Adam Driver's "Outer. Space."

Verdict: On second thought, this category maybe wasn't as up-in-the-air as I initially claimed because of course they would give it to Bono (for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom). Reader, I saw Mandela on Wednesday, and I bolted as the credits were beginning, because it was pretty heinous and nowhere close to making any sort of dramatic connection out of its two and a half hour running time. And along with being a totally limp account of Nelson's ideological significance on an entire culture, it gives the short end of the stick to Winnie as well, skirting all complexities of her political involvement that it brings up in the last act, reducing her arch to vagina-phobic visual motifs. Did we really need that shot of her hopelessly sitting alone in a bed???? Pretty embarrassing. But my main point is: I didn't even listen to the song. Is it better than the film, at least?