Gird your loins! After a full week of being snowed in, it's finally Oscar night! Let's not keep Ellar waiting.
Will Win: So within the span of a couple of weeks, Boyhood has lost its frontrunner status to Birdman after reaping all the major guilds. As statistics show, when a film takes top prizes from PGA, DGA, and SAG then its chances are pretty favorable in the Best Picture race. The last time this didn't pan out was when Apollo 13 lost to Braveheart in '95, so that and the widespread support are in Birdman's favor. However, likely because of the preferential ballot these past couple of years have shown them to go slightly off the beaten path in terms of adhering to precursor support (not in terms of favoring white/male = default mentality). So maybe Boyhood has a shot? It does have fans, in which case preferential balloting will help, and it's managed to attain the least amount of controversy while voting occurred, so color me unconvinced that the race is completely locked up.
Should Win: I think Birdman and Boyhood would be unique and gratifying winners, and that both are now being met with vehement outrage is completely mystifying to me. That being said, I don't think either would get my vote with American Sniper and Selma in the mix. I understand that I'm not "supposed" to have more than one favorite, let alone like these two movies in particular at the same time, but whatever their differences, both are grippingly steeped in a complex cultural labyrinth of agonies and confrontations, offering no easy answers to their quandaries or easy ways for us to engage with them. If forced, I'd probably give Sniper the slight edge, but I couldn't begin to begrudge either winning.
Will Win: I think Richard Linklater wins for the sheer conceptual ingenuity and commitment, even if Birdman ultimately wins Picture. I could be wrong, of course.
Should Win:
Will Win: Well, it's about damn time if you ask me. Julianne Moore will finally win an Oscar this year after gifting us with one of the most fascinating and pleasurable acting careers in my lifetime.
Should Win: I'm all about Marion Cotillard in this category, who isn't even nominated for the best performance she's given this year (love you, The Immigrant), though I'm not as upset that she'll likely be losing to Moore this year, since a) she's won before, and b) this is a case where it's more of a career Oscar, and I think that's a very good thing, considering the career in question. I'm honestly just happy that Cotillard was nominated at all!
Will Win: I would love to believe the "a win for Birdman is a win for Michael Keaton" narrative that a lot of prognosticators are trying to swing, but even if things do go well for the movie, I still see Eddie Redmayne taking this. I don't mean to knock Redmayne who I really like in The Theory of Everything, but they love mimicry and brilliant men who overcome adversity in this category, and I think the "Keaton is Riggan" aspect might hurt his case more than it will help, a la Mickey Rourke.
Should Win: This one is tougher since everyone, with the exception of Cumberbatch, is doing strong work here. I think Keaton gets my vote with the sincerest of apologies to Bradley Cooper. As much as his chances could be potentially hindered by the meta-ness of the character, Keaton never allows the film to fall back on a vain or simplified idea of who he is as an actor and brandishes Riggan with bruised self-deception and unflinching caginess that resonates fully in each scene (and with any one of his screen partners!).
Will Win: Patricia Arquette has basically had this sewn up since summertime, and the support has only been building in the past few months, with strong precursor support, dwindling enthusiasm/cases being made for her fellow nominees, and for "wishing there were more" (not knocking that line-reading at all, but it does work as an "Oscar scene"), she should have this in the bag.
Should Win: I kind of like the nominees this year, and feel that the only reason people are being snippier than usual towards the lineup is due to the relative ease with which the actresses were nominated. I think Emma Stone nails her big monologue and her scenes with Edward Norton, Arquette goes a long way in grounding Boyhood with sympathy and a world outside of the titular boy's view, Laura Dern gives the dubious patchwork of Wild warmth, and Meryl Streep....has her moments. Keira Knightley, meanwhile, already on a roll with Begin Again, finds relaxed movie star gumption and integrity in The Imitation Game's drabbest role, and in my eyes is the most deserving of this category. She makes Joan's attachment to Alan a product of their mutual detachment from the world around them and never as another feeble attempt for the script to inspect his sexuality.
Will Win: J.K. Simmons will win for reasons that I would argue have even been obvious since Whiplash's Sundance premiere. Besides the fact that he's swept virtually every precursors prize, the larger-than-life presence of the character as written and performed is the type of work that amasses immediate attention in this category. The fact that he's already been widely respected in the industry as a character actor and has never received a prior nomination will only help his case.
Should Win: Ethan Hawke is far and away my favorite in this category, which has not been a popular thing to say these past few months. With all the love Boyhood has been receiving (of which I have happily contributed), I'm genuinely surprised by how little of it has pooled into his performance. To varying degrees, I like everyone in this category except for Robert Duvall, but Hawke is the only one here that I would say genuinely supports his ensemble without having a single scene handed to him, nor, for that matter, a scene that obviously broadcasts how iffy an influence he may be on his children.
Will Win: I'm gonna go with...The Grand Budapest Hotel? I think?! If it's a grand slam for Birdman or Boyhood then we could see either of them here, but I have a feeling that they might finally want to show Wes Anderson some love, and this could be the only place to do it.
Should Win: I might go with The Grand Budapest Hotel here as well, but I've found a lot to love about Birdman and Boyhood, too, especially on repeat viewings.
Will Win: This is probably going to fly in my face, and it could just be wishful thinking, but I'm hoping Whiplash pulls a Precious and triumphs over the expected, less desirable outcome (Up in the Air in 2009's case and The Imitation Game this year).
Should Win: I should clarify that of the scripts that have an actual prayer at winning, Whiplash would easily be preferable to The Imitation Game. I can't say, however, that I would be much happier with Whiplash as a standalone win, considering I have quite a few reservations in regards to its script. You would think that my preference would easily be American Sniper in this category (and you would almost be right), but oddly enough I think Inherent Vice would actually be the one to get my vote. I'm in the weird camp of people who don't think you necessarily need a great script in order to have a great movie, so even though I do think American Sniper is often smart in structure and sequencing, I would probably point to the way the film is edited or performed if I were pointing out aspects that I admired most about it. In regards to Inherent Vice, I'm still not sure where I fall on the film itself, but the script is attempting something fresh in tone, narrative, and device that the direction sort of fumbles. I could change my mind, but it's doing something that I think more scripts should attempt.
Will Win: I really want to say Big Hero 6 or The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, but I'm afraid it will be the adventurous yet familiar How to Train Your Dragon 2.
Should Win: I love both Big Hero 6 and The Tale of the Princess Kaguya so much that I don't really want to pick a favorite, but I guess I'll be the snobby contrarian and go with the arthouse pick, Kaguya.
Will Win: Citizenfour has the precursor support, but it also has arguably the most urgent topic of the nominees that I could really see galvanizing the voters into going for it. I'm sticking with it as my prediction, but I have been wondering whether a similar argument could be made for Virunga's equally urgent subject matter or the emotional appeal of Finding Vivian Maier, which could pull off a win in the vein of Searching for Sugar Man (less serious, more satisfying).
Should Win: I like all of the nominees that I've seen (still need to see The Salt of the Earth), but I'm firmly on Team Citizenfour, which I know has caught fire for feeling like strings of footage, but it's such a riveting, transportive exposé.
Will Win: I'm going with Ida, because it's only gotten stronger as a contender in these past few months, and everyone is gaga for it....
Should Win: ....myself included! Granted it's the only nominee I've had the chance to see so far, because I still have to wait two more weeks until Leviathan plays anywhere near me, and Tangerines, Timbuktu and Wild Tales have either not opened or are just now beginning to show in theaters. I still think Ida would be a worthy, deeply affecting winner, though.
Will Win: Yet another surprising toughie. On the one hand, it should seem obvious that Birdman would be the winner, but on the other, they've passed over Lubezki before, and he did win just last year. I could see them being struck by Mr. Turner, but the fact that Birdman is the strongest and showiest Best Picture candidate will really help it glide to victory, I think.
Should Win: Well, I never did see Unbroken, which I feel bad about because one should support female filmmakers, but I haven't heard many kind words. Not even for the cinematography. I also haven't seen Mr. Turner, but not out of disinterest, I assure you. It strangely hasn't come to Tennessee yet. Are they really waiting until after the Oscars? Forgive the small rant, but I will never understand Sony Pictures Classics' insistence on releasing movies so late in the year, and being even slower and less favorable to monetary value in terms of roll-out. Anyway, my vote goes to Birdman, because Lubezki is doing typically genius work.
Will Win: I think The Grand Budapest Hotel wins in both cases. With the evident love in the major categories, I have a feeling that the technicals will it eat up. Unless they somehow manage to go with Into the Woods in both cases, but I think with Budapest they can still go with Best = Most, and not go with gaudiness for once!
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, with more regrets of not having the chance to see Mr. Turner yet.
Will Win: Well well, the last time there was a likely Best Picture winner to not receive an Editing nomination was the year that Ordinary People won. Of course, Birdman missed here due to the film appearing to have very few cuts, but assuming it is the Best Picture frontrunner, then this leaves us with a number of possibilities, since its often the default winner here. Whiplash is the showiest (again: most = best), and American Sniper owes a lot of the success of its character density and battle sequences to the editing, so I'm very tempted to choose either of them. But I ultimately think Boyhood will be able to work with the hook of editing so much footage over such a long period of time, and making it feel so cohesive while doing so.
Should Win: American Sniper for the reasons listed above.
Best Makeup & HairstylingWill Win: I'm struggling between The Grand Budapest Hotel and Guardians of the Galaxy, since both required an abundance of effort on each actor. I think Tilda Swinton in old-lady makeup might be enough to upend the varying alien pigmentation, so Budapest it is.
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, but I'm even more enthusiastic about the dapper, mustachioed hotel managers and lobby boys than I am Tilda's old lady.
Will Win: The Theory of Everything has one of the most prominent scores of the nominees, as well as the the most pleasant-sounding, so I'm guessing this is our winner? (Especially since they so often line up with the Globes here, lately.)
Should Win: It's a damn shame that Alexandre Desplat has yet to be recognized after multiple nominations and years of pristine, multi-faceted work. And it's an even bigger shame that he's likely to be passed over again for one of his best works to date in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Honestly, even The Imitation Game's proficient, but pacifying score would suffice.
Will Win: I have a pretty strong vibe that they'll want to reward Selma somewhere, and since this is the only place to do it...
Should Win: I don't know what the music branch has been doing, but with last year's solid lineup and this year's stellar one, they're becoming less and less dead to me (even with the "Alone Yet Not Alone" snafu still so fresh in everyone's memory from last year). I adore "Grateful" and "Lost Stars" the most of the nominees, and absolutely love the way they're used in their films (Beyond the Lights and Begin Again, respectfully), even as the former is an end-credits song. It's close, but "Lost Stars" would probably get my vote for being vital to plot and character, while also impressing in its many forms.
Will Win: I see American Sniper taking this, since this sound category in particular favors the aural conveyance of loud battle sequences and gun fights....
Should Win: ....especially when the sounds emitted from battles and weaponry contain such a rich variance of detail and dread.
Best Sound MixingWill Win: I'm gonna go with Whiplash, since people already love the flashiness, and it's going to grab a lot of voters' attention who are watching it for the first time.
Should Win: Of the four nominees that I've seen Birdman would probably get my vote just above American Sniper, because the dizzying ambience is excitingly communicated through its soundscape.
Will Win: I could see cases being made for either Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, or Interstellar. Guardians is the biggest hit of the nominees, Interstellar is the Biggest of the nominees, but I think they'll want to recognize the mo-cap of Apes.
Should Win: I think I like Interstellar the most.
Recap
Best Picture
Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: American Sniper
Best Director
Will Win: Richard Linklater
Should Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu
Best Actress
Will Win: Julianne Moore
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Best Actor
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Should Win: Michael Keaton
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Should Win: Keira Knightley
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Should Win: Ethan Hawke
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Inherent Vice
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Should Win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Best Documentary
Will Win: Citizenfour
Should Win: Citizenfour
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Ida
Should Win: Ida (by default)
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Birdman
Should Win: Birdman
Best Costume Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: American Sniper
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score
Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song
Will Win: "Glory" from Selma
Should Win: "Lost Stars" from Begin Again
Best Production Design
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: American Sniper
Should Win: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Birdman
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Interstellar
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