Best Picture
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave, though I fully concede that this is all wild guesswork. Wouldn't be shocked if preferential balloting gave Gravity or American Hustle the edge.
My Vote: The complex sympathies and observations of 12 Years a Slave give it an easy boost over its fellow nominees for my money, but I actually like both Gravity and American Hustle enough that if they were to win I wouldn't be totally miserable. Either way, I think we'll have our first worthy winner since The Hurt Locker.
Best Director
Prediction: Was toying with McQueen, but I'm going with the boring pick in Cuaron...
My Vote: ...which isn't to say that it would be an undeserved win, both as a form of recognizing his career and recognizing the sheer immersive and virtuosic technical achievement of his film. But that's also not to say that I wouldn't be a Steve McQueen voter at the end of the day.
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction/My Vote: I'm, perhaps unwisely, ignoring the theory that members will finally want to reward David O. Russell in some form (to which I ask, where were these people with I Heart Huckabees?) and will instead go with my initial feeling that their love for both Spike Jonze and Sci-fi Romances of the twee-spun high-concepts variety (hi, Eternal Sunshine) will pull through in Her's favor. And I'm keeping each of my fingers crossed that this will happen, not only because of my admiration for Jonze's lovely and imaginative if a bit on-the-nose script, but because his Globe speech was sweetness and modesty personified and I'd love to see him on stage again. Such a cutie-pie, too.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction/My Vote: A little part of me is considering whether The Wolf of Wall Street's adamant band of followers will want to see it rewarded here, resulting in a reverse Precious-over-Up in the Air-style upset over 12 Years a Slave (insofar as the surprise win for Wolf would not be deserved or welcomed...well, at least by me), especially considering that this is the only real place that it has a chance to upset. But unless we're overestimating how much people love 12 Years a Slave, this should be its most secure win of the night. Also, I have problems with all of the nominated scripts, 12 Years a Slave's extending to iffy dialogue and dubious writing conceits, but it handily tops its competitors in terms of emotional investment and wise choices in construction.
Best Actress
Prediction: As welcome as I'd be to the idea of this category being Amy Adams and Cate Blanchett neck-and-neck for the win (or even more bliss-inducing would be a year where Adele Exarchopoulos is the full-on favorite to win, but that's neither here nor there), I just don't see any outcome that doesn't involve the latter emerging victorious after sweeping nearly every precursor with nary a complaint from anyone. In the unlikely chance that she doesn't win, will there be any sort of way for me to avoid the people claiming that the Dylan Farrow scandal is what ruined it for her? I. just. can. not.
My Vote: I'm totally ready for Cate Blanchett to Sandra Bullock or Daniel Day-Lewis her way to the sweetest and most endearing speech of the night again, winning for a performance that I like/love a lot, but would not have voted for personally. At heart, I'll really be rooting for Amy Adams to pull off an upset, who, as I implied above, was showing potential to do just that when American Hustle was really gaining steam, but ultimately peaked a little too late. Her shifty and delirious rapport with what makes Sydney so desirable to both Irving and Richie, along with the challenging task of evoking her own shapeshifting ideas of what her "real" feelings towards them are through the multiple facades she bears throughout the film provides Hustle a palpable core, even when the movie is focused on the surface levels of the con. Streep is also quite good in August: Osage County and would be a close runner-up.
Best Actor
Prediction/My Vote: Another category with murmurings of a possible Wolf of Wall Street upset by way of Leonardo DiCaprio's highly entertaining if just short of illuminating performance. While I don't mean this as a slight against DiCaprio since this is his first performance since The Departed where I found the hype to be completely justified, but I'm finding it hard to get totally excited about the "It's his time!" chantings when Matthew McConaughey so nimbly sifts a fully-fleshed and multi-shaded protagonist in Ron Woodruff through his freshly twisted movie-star persona while subtly tracking and concealing Ron's possible emotional and ideological renovations and avoiding any stilted or calculated perceptions of him as a character or character type. I think the novelty of his total career transformation alone will keep him as the one to beat, let alone the precursor support and momentum.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction/My Vote: The only category that presents itself with much of a challenge in predicting. On the one hand, we have to ask if we really think that a movie with this much support from the acting branch will actually go home without an acting Oscar (if not Oscarless, altogether), while on the other hand, we should also ask if we really expect Jennifer Lawrence to win two years in a row, so soon after we were asking if she had to win for that performance. I do think that the Bale inclusion speaks volumes about how much they loved it, but I think systematically speaking that the Academy knows that a second win for Lawrence would be bad for her career, while a win for the career-blossoming Lupita Nyong'o can only be a positive thing at this point (and in Lawrence's defense, she's trying her hardest to keep people from voting for her). My thinking/hope is that the indelible textures of Nyong'o's performance and the slight advantage in momentum will work in her favor.
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Jared Leto, who probably would've won the BAFTA if he were actually nominated, which is my roundabout way of saying that he isn't losing.
My Vote: But oh, if only this race had a fraction of the mystery that Supporting Actress has, I'd actually be really excited to see how this race would turn out since, barring Jonah Hill, this is a pretty great lineup. To elaborate on my feelings towards Hill, I thought he hammers home the fact that his character is Fucking Disgusting a little too hard for me to find any form of plausibility behind his affectation. And I say this as a genuine fan of Hill, finding his performances in 21 Jump Street and his previously nominated work in Moneyball to be his simplest and best performances. Leto would probably take fourth place in my rankings, mainly due to the fact that I feel the need to revisit his film and test out the justified concerns of ideology and tastefulness, despite liking his performance overall, particularly in regards to how much he adds to the tacitness of Rayon and Ron's relationship. 12 Years a Slave's script lets Fassbender down on occasion when it reduces Epps down to a device through which we see just how evil slave owners were instead of an actual character, but the performance's best moments also come from the most visible acts of menace and malevolence, leaving just enough open for us to see how even he feels about his treatment towards his "property". For me, though, the clear MVPs of the category are Barkhad Abdi and Bradley Cooper, both of whom are arguably leads but totally walk away as the most memorable and potent elements of Captain Phillips and American Hustle, respectively (in movies that are full of memorable and potent elements, at that), regardless of category placement. I'll have more to say on these two when I reveal my dream ballot in the coming weeks.
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Disney will likely garner it's well-earned first win in this category with Frozen, which makes me happy even if it isn't my preference.
My Vote: I just saw it yesterday, but The Wind Rises managed to top its stellar group of fellow nominees that I managed to see (yes, The Croods is surprisingly good, too!). Miyazaki's quietly touching and appropriately melancholic swan song is sentimental and blunt at times, but it circulates an ode to creativity and imagination while chasing thornier ideas about the worlds (whether real or fantasized) that its subject inhabits. Go see it now that it's playing everywhere.
Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction/My Vote: I never would've predicted how much people would get into The Great Beauty. I liked it fine, finding the narrative and flash-chic embellishments to prove more affecting as it went, but otherwise I was not able to get that into it, and struggled to see the fervor that a lot of people who's opinions I respect feel towards it. At least it's better than The Hunt. (Sorry Mads Mikkelson)
Best Documentary
Prediction: 20 Feet From Stardom, for it's accessibility and arrangement of tuneful, crowd-pleasing confessionals that is looking like a Searching for Sugar Man situation where they ignore heavier subjects like The Square or Dirty Wars for something more wafer-y.
My Vote: Confession: I've actually only seen my predicted winner and Joshua Oppenheimer's The Act of Killing, which, if you've seen my Top 10 list, you know I'm gonna be rooting for it. I had every intention of catching The Square since it has the most likely chance at spoiling, but in terms of a brazen, stomach-churning relationship with its subject, I can't imagine much will top Killing zt the end of the day.
Best Cinematography
Prediction/My Vote: I know we're all over the idea of CGI-heavy movies being the instant favorite to win this category with this being the fifth year in a row that such a feat could occur (the past winners being, for the sake of example: Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception, and Avatar), and yes, Emmanuel Lubezki should very well have won for his past (and even better) endeavors, but I'm finding myself hard-pressed to not only come up with a defense against his probable win for Gravity, but also to come up with one for this work being any less consequential because of the technology utilized. The ways that Lubezki manages to work within the CGI with light and movement are the easy highlights of Gravity and are what make it the physical as well as the emotional ride that it is.
Best Costume Design
Prediction/My Vote: The ways that American Hustle and The Great Gatsby's costumes loudly call attention to themselves with classy and flashy digs left behind and tossed-off, respectively, either one could viably take this, but I'm giving Hustle the slight edge since I'm feeling skeptical that it will walk home empty-handed.
Best Film Editing
Prediction/My Vote: This is a bit of a tough call, considering that 1. We don't have a clear idea on who the Best Picture winner is going to be this year (which is usually their go-to pick), and 2. We also don't know if this will be an instance where they decide to go with what was "Most Edited" (hi, Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), in which case they would go with Gravity continuing its large haul in the technical categories, whether it takes Best Picture or not. But since I'm going with 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture, I'm going out on a limb with a win here, as well.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Prediction/My Vote: Haven't seen The Lone Ranger yet, but with all of the hoopla regarding its budgetary constraints and considering its the only Best Picture nominee in the field (seriously, where is American Hustle?), I think Dallas Buyers Club will ultimately take it.
Best Production Design
Prediction: Another hair-pulling decision as to whether I should go with 12 Years a Slave or Gravity. Maybe Gravity won't fully sweep, but I feel that the much-lauded authenticity of its spaceships and all of those indelible crumbling surfaces that play into all of Bullock's challenging exterior obstacles will give it the win.
My Vote: As much as I like Gravity's production design, I'm still just too ecstatic that all of Her's bold primary colors that merge into a muted, unfussy, and completely plausible portrait of the future was even able to earn a nomination here to root for any other contender.
Best Original Score
Prediction: The fact that Gravity is the most heavily-scored and relies on said score the most to attain each of its compact thrills should easily give it the win here.
My Vote: Throwing some more love towards Her's way, who's mood is lent such intimate delicacy from Arcade Fire's score.
Best Original Song
Prediction: "Let it Go", which is so catchy, even though I have trouble reading whether the movie plays this moment of isolation as a good thing. These sure are three great songs though, plus U2's hastily-assembled "Oridinary Love".
My Vote: I like "Let it Go" a lot, but "The Moon Song" is ukulele heaven to my ears and only just edges it out as my favorite. I'm not crazy about either as used in the film, though.
Best Sound Editing/Best Sound Mixing
Prediction/My Vote: Gravity releases a vertiginous arsenal of claustrophobic transference and ingenious manipulations of silence and music and should win both categories for that reason.
Best Visual Effects
Prediction/My Vote: I hate to be predictable, but Gravity is pretty spectacular on these grounds alone.
Have fun, everyone!
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