I promise that my head is not completely stuck in the awards gutter (nor am I personally attacking you or being willfully contrarian in predicting or not predicting anyone's favorite movie, actor, director, etc. lest anyone accuse me of that), but Oscar predictions are a wonderful pastime for me, and I simply love awards season. More specifically I love the nicer parts of award season where you're not an idiot for having less than kind things to say about, oh I don't know, The Wolf of Wall Street. My main point is this: this can be fun and rewarding if we're willing to engage with one another in mature and rational terms that don't end in smug, petty reinforcements of intellectual superiority. And also I will have some less than kind things to say about The Wolf of Wall Street during my commentary (there'll be nice things, too!), so if anyone reading is terribly offended then just remember that Martin Scorsese will probably find some way to cope.
That stuff isn't really important, though. All right: I think I've finally settled on these?
Best Picture
If there are five (in order of likelihood for the purpose of how they delve out their nominations now):
12 Years a Slave; Gravity; American Hustle; Captain Phillips; Nebraska
The rest (also in order of likelihood for the same reason):
The Wolf of Wall Street; Her; Dallas Buyers Club;
Alternates:
All is Lost; August: Osage County; Before Midnight; Blue Jasmine; Lee Daniels' The Butler; Philomena; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks
I'm thinking that the PGA-nominated of my predicted ten have the best shots. Unless we consider whether the academy is really gonna rally hard for The Wolf of Wall Steet, Her and/or Dallas Buyers Club, in which case Llewyn Davis could easily grab a safer spot in #6-8, if not the top 5. Wild card: I realize Fruitvale isn't the safest pick, but I'm thinking they could ultimately be affected by the story's immediacy. Plus, there's just something about those Sundance winners.
What Actually Happened: 8/9. Man, now I really need to find a way to see Philomena. It's partially my own fault for not seeing it yet, since the film just looks so unappealing to me. A great movie seems like too much to expect, but maybe Dench will animate it enough? I'm guessing it took the crowd-pleasing slot from Banks (which I also need to see). Not exactly sure why I decided to omit Banks from my predictions in the first place other than not being able to make room for it in place of those buoyant rays of sunshine, Llewyn Davis and Fruitvale, but I guess I'm happy for calling its "snub"? Unless, of course, I end up liking it after I see it this weekend.
Also, I guess from here on out we should just keep predicting nine nominees because every year I always think they might do six or seven or eight (or *gasp* maybe even five), but they have yet to break this tradition ever since they've switched to this system of voting. I'd be fine with going back to 10. I'd be even happier with five!
Best Director
Cuaron, Gravity;
Alternates:
Chandor, All is Lost; Coens, Inside Llewyn Davis; Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Payne, Nebraska; Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street; Valle, Dallas Buyers Club
To predict Jonze over Scorsese is probably to make the presumption that the Academy will even connect that deeply with his usually offbeat style, but they often like him (and maybe also realize that Scorsese isn't totally on his game). It's good to take risks.
What Actually Happened: 3/5. The Payne crush continues! I haven't seen Her yet (also this weekend!) but on a fundamental level I was really rooting for Spike Jonze. And, honestly, I was really surprised he didn't make it with Greengrass out of the conversation. Wasn't crazy about what Scorsese was doing in Wolf, either, but I at least get what it is that they like about it, whereas Payne's images just get more and more banal to me. Only this time he slathers them with tacky banjo music rather than tacky ukulele music. Still, I'm madder about Scorsese I suppose.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle; Dallas Buyers Club; Her;
Alternates:
All is Lost; Blue Jasmine; Enough Said; Frances Ha; Fruitvale Station; Gravity; Mud; Saving Mr. Banks
I'm thinking Allen misses in both a crowded field and in a year where the talk is more around the star performance than his script. Remember when he missed for Vicky Cristina Barcelona? Speaking of '08: am I the only one crazy enough to think that Enough Said, Frances Ha, or Mud could pull off a nomination in the vein of Frozen River or In Bruges? That'd be exciting even though I don't care for Mud.
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Not much worth getting excited about, that's for sure. There have been worse nominees than Blue Jasmine (and worse that have earned Woody a nomination before, which makes me think even more that I should have predicted him), but over Llewyn Davis? Again, happy for Jonze based purely on the fact that he's Spike Jonze.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave; Before Midnight; Captain Phillips; Philomena; The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternates:
August: Osage County; The Bling Ring; Blue is the Warmest Color; Lone Survivor; The Secret Life of Walter Mitty; Short Term 12; The Spectacular Now
Not much to say other than that a Bling Ring nomination would be pretty great. If anyone's knocked out I assume it'll be Before Midnight?
What Actually Happened: 5/5. Wasn't crazy about Before Midnight a second time, but I'm happy for these guys!
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Adams, American Hustle; Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Bullock, Gravity; Dench, Philomena;
Alternates:
Delpy, Before Midnight; Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color; Garcia, Gloria; Gerwig, Frances Ha; Larson, Short Term 12; Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said; Streep, August: Osage County
Yes, I'm going with Adams over Streep, but if they really want to shake things up with that fifth spot then Exarchopoulos, Delpy, Gerwig and Larson seem kind of plausible to me. I just wish it wasn't at Streep's expense this time. Why wasn't it this hard with The Iron Lady?
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Streep! I know there were so many first-timers that could have really benefited from that probable fifth slot, but I actually think she's genuinely fantastic in it. Which is surprising since she's usually just so dreadful! Also sad for Emma Thompson, even though I haven't seen Banks yet. I promise this weekend!
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Dern, Nebraska; DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave;
Alternates:
Bale, American Hustle; Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jackman, Prisoners; Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Phoenix, Her; Redford, All is Lost; Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
I'd love for Isaac to pull off a surprise, but DiCaprio's looking more likely. And....I think he would be a worthy contender, too! Maybe Hanks is out instead of Redford?
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Whoa! I like Christian Bale and everything, but I thought he was easily the weakest of Hustle's cast. Did we really have to waste Hanks on him?
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Lawrence, American Hustle; Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave;
Alternates:
Diaz, Fruitvale Station; Johansson, Her; Paulson, 12 Years a Slave; Roberts, August: Osage County; Robie, The Wolf of Wall Street; Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color; Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Getting some serious "snub" vibes from this category. I'm not sure if Roberts is quite the done deal that people think she is, and Winfrey's losing a lot of steam, whereas Hawkins looks to have an easier shot at riding her co-stars coattails than Roberts, while Spencer could make it in if they really go for Fruitvale.
What Actually Happened: Called the Winfrey snub! So so so so so so so so so so happy for Hawkins, especially after missing for Happy-Go-Lucky. Adds a lot to that relationship with Blanchett. Sort of sad that the Spencer prediction didn't amount to much since Roberts' nomination is egregious category fraud.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Abdi, Captain Phillips; Cooper, American Hustle; Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave;
Alternates:
Bruhl, Rush; Forte, Nebraska; Franco, Spring Breakers; Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks; Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; McConaughey, Mud; Renner, American Hustle
Along with Gandolfini, I also think Hanks has a shot, despite moribund buzz.
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Well, what happened was this: the Academy actually felt the need to recognize Hill a second time for smugly playing up every appalling and/or "shocking" aspect of his character, while missing the last chance to nominate James Gandolfini for finding a multitude of layers in his characters' tenderness and finding ways to humanize and complicate all of Albert's flaws and charms. This might be the nomination I'm most outraged by.
Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2; Ernest & Celestine; Frozen;
Alternates:
Full list of eligible contenders. The Croods probably has the best chance at dethroning one of these, I think. Or maybe something like A Letter to Momo?
What Actually Happened: 4/5. The Croods made it in as I thought it very well could've, but over Pixar no less? Do I need to watch this?
Best Documentary
20 Feet From Stardom; The Act of Killing;
Alternates:
Cutie and the Boxer; God Loves Uganda; The Square.... and Dirty Wars! Full list of eligible contenders.
Eagerly crossing my fingers for The Act of Killing and Stories We Tell. I really want to see God Loves Uganda, which seems like a terrific companion piece to Call Me Kuchu for obvious reasons.
What Actually Happened: 2/5. Ouch!
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown; The Great Beauty; The Hunt; Omar;
Alternates:
A Day in the Life of an Iron Picker; The Grandmaster; The Missing Picture; The Notebook
The Grandmaster might make it. Of the finalists on the shortlist I'm anticipating The Missing Picture the most. Liked The Great Beauty, but don't really get the love behind The Broken Circle Breakdown beyond its female lead. And the tattoos, of course!
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Happy for The Missing Picture, based solely on the fact that I'm interested in seeing it.
Best Cinematography
Alternates:
American Hustle; Captain Phillips; The Grandmaster; The Great Gatsby; Her; Nebraska; To the Wonder; The Wolf of Wall Street
I'm thinking they really go for All is Lost in the technical categories, but maybe they'll be enticed by The Grandmaster? To the Wonder would be pretty great on a personal note.
What Actually Happened: 3/5. "What to choose? 12 Years a Slave was impressively lit and emotionally enveloping, but Nebraska was shot in B&W so obviously...."
Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; The Great Gatsby; The Invisible Woman; Lee Daniels' The Butler
Alternates:
Dallas Buyers Club; The Grandmaster; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; Inside Llewyn Davis; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks; The Wolf of Wall Street'
Really pulling for an Inside Llewyn Davis nomination. Hustle and Gatsby are my favorites amongst my predictions.
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Good day for The Grandmaster and it didn't even make the Foreign Language lineup!
Best Film Editing
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Captain Phillips; Gravity;
Alternates:
All is Lost; Dallas Buyers Club; Fruitvale Station; Lee Daniels' The Butler; Nebraska; Philomena; Prisoners; Rush
I'm not ready for this Wolf of Wall Street nomination. I understand that it was a little more challenging for Thelma Schoonmaker to shape the footage in any sort of cohesive way, considering all of those uninspired shots and self-serving improvisations. All of that aside though, I've been so puzzled by the passes the film's received for how utterly flabby and repetitive its representation is. I know this isn't the most original criticism in the world and that it's reductive by it's very principle, but I felt every second of that three-hour running time and I was pretty much feeling the listlessness by the 28th coke-fueled orgy. Other than Wolf, I would probably be fine with these nominees, give or take American Hustle, which has similar pacing issues, but emerged with far more interesting results, I thought.
What Actually Happened: 4/5. A blessing: The Wolf of Wall Street wasn't nominated! An inquiry: Just how close was Valle to making that Director lineup I wonder. Nebraska not showing up here isn't all too surprising, but the Payne nomination and this much support for Dallas Buyers Club is making me wonder.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Alternates:
The Great Gatsby; Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; The Lone Ranger
The comb over aside, Adams's curls deserve their own honorary Oscar. I'm fully expecting to at least be wrong about Dallas Buyers Club. I'm terrible with this category.
What Actually Happened: 2/3. Ooh, no Hustle. Not gonna lie, I was kind of expecting that one to walk away with the whole thing. Or maybe I'm just projecting my own bewitched feelings towards Adams' hairdo.
Best Original Score
Alternates:
All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Her; The Invisible Woman; Man of Steel; Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Oz the Great and Powerful; Prisoners; Rush
It might be strange that I'm going with Banks and The Book Thief over All is Lost and Her since the former I'm not quite as confident about and the latter was basically laughed out of existence, where All is Lost and Her, have much more support and genuine love behind them in terms of their scores. But I'm thinking they won't be able to resist Williams or Newman.
What Actually Happened: 4/5. The best thing about not being a strict Oscar completist is that I am never going to see The Book Thief, and by extension also sparing myself of what I can only assume is another phone-in from Williams.
Best Original Song
"Let it Go" from Frozen;
Alternates:
I just can not with this category. Here's the full list of eligible contenders. (Nominees:
What Actually Happened: 2/5. Not sure I even want to know what Alone Yet Not Alone is. Sort of thought the Mandela song was just gonna be a Globe thing.
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave; The Great Gatsby; Her;
Alternates:
American Hustle; The Grandmaster; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis; Lee Daniels' The Butler; The Lone Ranger; Oz the Great and Powerful; The Wolf of Wall Street
Note: Gravity is at #6 in my predictions. I just don't feel confident that they'll go quite so.... minimalist. I don't mean minimal so much in terms of scope, obviously, but in terms of abundance or variations on a handful of sets. It's really good work, though, and I'll simply be thrilled if it makes it.
What Actually Happened: 3/5. Continuing my trumpeting of the yet-to-be-seen-by-me Her because it's just so refreshing to see a film and set design of this ilk make it in this category.
Best Sound Editing
All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Gravity;
Alternates:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Man of Steel; Star Trek Into Darkness; World War Z
What Actually Happened: 3/5. Iron Men are usually so prominent in this category. You'd think with all of those best of the trilogy claims it'd at least get a little more than Visual Effects. I will probably see Lone Survivor eventually.
Best Sound Mixing
Alternates:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Man of Steel; Pacific Rim; Rush; The Wolf of Wall Street; World War Z
What Actually Happened: 3/5. The Hobbit and Lone Survivor fuck me again! Hooray Inside Llewyn Davis!
Best Visual Effects
Gravity; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3;
Alternates:
Elysium; The Lone Ranger; Oblivion; Thor: The Dark World; World War Z
I know, I know, Gravity is a pretty big gambit here, but I just have a feeling for these things. I'd be happy if World War Z were to show up.
What Actually Happened: 4/5. Honestly not that surprised by Pacific Rim missing out, but I was thinking Elysium would take its spot instead of Lone Ranger.
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