Welcome to the new season of the blog! Pretty busy today (of all days!) to go too in-depth, but I promise that this will only be the start of what I'm hoping to be a better year for this blog than what became of it last year. And I couldn't think of a better day to kick the new season off since tonight is my third favorite holiday of the year.
Best Picture: Drama
12 Years a Slave; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Rush; Philomena
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave. Because even though the cultural significance and star power of Gravity does look as if it could result in a win akin to what Avatar pulled off (insofar as that it didn't leave much of an impact on the race, overall), I'm sort of feeling the 12 Years a Slave thing happening.
My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. And why shouldn't it? Not to project my own feelings onto the race, but I thought McQueen's sobering and appropriately heightened evocation of Solomon's plight faces more challenging tasks than Gravity at soliciting sympathy from its audience. And something tells me the HFPA will feel similarly.
Verdict: It's 12 Years a Slave! Which makes me so happy, considering how the night was going.
Best Picture: Musical or Comedy
American Hustle; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska; The Wolf of Wall Street
Prediction: American Hustle. I'm guessing just ever-so-slightly over The Wolf of Wall Street, because people and voting bodies have really been responding to these seriously flawed movies about seriously flawed people.
My Vote: Inside Llewyn Davis. Because even if I am overselling it after only seeing it yesterday, it definitely leaves the other nominated films that I've seen in the dust.
Verdict: American Hustle. One of the producers made some comment pertaining to the plausibility of these characters, which is incredibly mystifying since the lack of plausibility, outside of Adams and Cooper, was partly what I found disenchanting about the movie.
Best Actress: Drama
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks; Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Prediction: Blanchett. Because I'm on a bit of a risk-taking streak as of late.
My Vote: Blanchett. But I haven't seen any of the other nominees except for Bullock, so I'm probably not the best judge. Pretty great performance, even though I'm not quite as over the moon for it as everyone else.
Verdict: Blanchett wins! Surely in a squeaker over Winslet, right?!
Best Actor: Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club; Robert Redford, All is Lost
Prediction: Ejiofor. But maybe it'll be McConaughey?
My Vote: McConaughey. Though, I'll also be ecstatic if Ejiofor wins.
Verdict: McConaughey! Am I the only one who thought this speech was not only muddled, but weirdly postured, too? Like: "I need to protect my image, so I'll skimp all of the ideological criticisms and distance myself from any form of LGBT-related concerns." Noticed it even more with Leto. I guess one could possibly chalk it up to McConaughey being McConaughey.
Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, American Hustle; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Prediction: Adams. Because the combination of coattail momentum and Streep fatigue are looking more and more in her favor.
My Vote: Adams. And let's not forget that it is a pretty great performance. She easily cuts the most plausible, bruising and wry work out of the tastily rafter-playing ensemble. Streep would be a close second for me. Then Louis-Dreyfuss. Then Gerwig. Then Delpy. Could we have asked for a better lineup?
Verdict: It's Adams! Easily the best speech of the night. A nomination on Thursday would be the greatest back-to-school present I can think of at the moment. Maybe if she knocks out Dench instead of Streep?
Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Prediction: Dern. Because even if he doesn't have quite the star power his fellow nominees have, that campaign has really taken off in ways that's probably going to end in him "getting one already!" as per the narrative it's been shooting for.
My Vote: Isaac. Which is the one aspect of Llewyn Davis that I'm not worried that I've oversold.
Verdict: DiCaprio, who I actually like in The Wolf of Wall Street after being stuck in what I considered to be a pretty clear rut creatively (which includes Shutter Island and Django Unchained), and thought he was pretty sincere in his acceptance speech, but the movie as a whole has grown a little more irritating the further I get away from it, despite solid individual scenes. As for Oscar prospects, it's looking like a stronger possibility the closer we get to nominations, but it's just such a mystery to me as to where they're going to lean in this category which has a multitude of strong (and even worthy!) contenders. I'd be happier if the surprise was Isaac, but DiCaprio's fine too.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; June Squibb, Nebraska
Prediction: Nyong'o. But if they go with Jennifer "Thank God for me" Lawrence then I wouldn't be surprised.
My Vote: Nyong'o. But if I'm partial to Julia "Eat the fish, bitch" Roberts on principle then don't be surprised.
Verdict: Lawrence. I'm cool on the performance at most (though I at least think it's better than what Squibb is doing), but I'm really not looking forward to the vicious backlash waiting for her if she wins a second Oscar. Especially since we're both Louisville natives.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Daniel Bruhl, Rush; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Prediction: Leto. Because the universal acclaim, momentum, deglam and already-easy level of sympathy for the character are aligning in his favor.
My Vote: Abdi. Because even though I consider it a lead performance, I still couldn't be happier that he's nominated for such polished, expressive work for a debut.
Verdict: Leto, greeting us with discomfitingly bro-y "Brazillian wax" jokes that ring so false to the sensitive work he's accepting the award for and as a shameless tactic to not be associated with anything "gay". Maybe the next few times will be the charm?
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron; Paul Greengrass; Steve McQueen; Russell; Payne
Prediction: Cuaron. Because if they want to reward Gravity anywhere it'll be here.
My Vote: McQueen. For keeping the harsh, unrelenting truths of history rightly out in the open, even when he gets in his own way occasionally.
Verdict: Cuaron! The various clips of Gravity I saw tonight reminded me even more of what great work he's doing. Thinking he's probably our frontrunner, whether it translates into Best Picture or not.
Best Screenplay
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Her; Nebraska; Philomena
Prediction: American Hustle. Though I could easily see 12 Years a Slave
My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. Because it should be obvious at this point.
Verdict: Her, which I'm so excited to see and am simply thrilled for Spike Jonze on principle. Such a sweetheart! And I probably won't tire of looking at him this season.
Best Animated Film
The Croods; Despicable Me 2; Frozen
Prediction: Frozen. Because I honestly can't imagine anyone saying: "Yeah, Frozen was pretty cute, but OMG Despicable Me 2!"
My Vote: Frozen. Because it's the only one I've seen, and the only one I will see.
Verdict: Girl, you know it's Frozen.
Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color; The Great Beauty; The Hunt; The Past; The Wind Rises
Prediction: Blue is the Warmest Color. Or maybe The Hunt?
My Vote: The Great Beauty. Because even in its clunkiest embellishments I still found the whole to be riskier and more potent than the only other nominee that I have seen (The Past). I must see Blue is the Warmest Color, which played the Belcourt at the worst possible time for me.
Verdict: The Great Beauty, which surprises me honestly, since it's the most challenging of the nominees and doesn't have quite the hooks that The Hunt or Blue is the Warmest Color have. Maybe The Great Beauty has more support than I initially thought?
Best Orginal Score
Prediction: Gravity. Because people don't seem to think it gets in the way of much of Cuaron's technical ambition.
My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. Because I'm not huge on any of the others, and even if it does take a lot of its notes from prior Zimmer scores, it's still incredibly affecting
Verdict: All is Lost, which never really rang quite as prepossessing for me as the technical engineering. It had a few nice touches from what I can remember, though.
Best Original Song
Prediction: Frozen for "Let it Go". But who knows with this category.
My Vote: "Please Mr. Kennedy", if only for Adam Driver's "Outer. Space."
Verdict: On second thought, this category maybe wasn't as up-in-the-air as I initially claimed because of course they would give it to Bono (for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom). Reader, I saw Mandela on Wednesday, and I bolted as the credits were beginning, because it was pretty heinous and nowhere close to making any sort of dramatic connection out of its two and a half hour running time. And along with being a totally limp account of Nelson's ideological significance on an entire culture, it gives the short end of the stick to Winnie as well, skirting all complexities of her political involvement that it brings up in the last act, reducing her arch to vagina-phobic visual motifs. Did we really need that shot of her hopelessly sitting alone in a bed???? Pretty embarrassing. But my main point is: I didn't even listen to the song. Is it better than the film, at least?
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