Best of 2014: Sounds and Cuts

If you were as upset about the lack of Edge of Tomorrow in Tuesday's Visual Effects lineup as I was, then you're gonna want to take a look at the latest batch of nominees I've written up. Spoiler alert: more Under the Skin love, as well! The nominees for Best Film Editing: (after the jump)

Best of 2014: Visual Effects

This is never one of the first categories presented at the Oscars, but each year it remains one of the few that I can easily close the books on early-ish in the season, in terms of having to scout viable contenders. So, since it's very doubtful that the likes of Still Alice, Mr. Turner, or A Most Violent Year will be serious threats in this field, then I can safely give you my nominees for Best Visual Effects!

2014 SAG Predictions: Their Choices and Mine

The Screen Actors Guild will broadcast their annual ceremony in just a few short hours, so naturally my mind is on the acting race, despite last night's big PGA surprise that has miraculously transitioned the wide-open Best Picture field to a two-or-three-film open and shut case. As always, I plan to watch, but not have as much fun as I do with the perpetual intoxication of the Golden Globes. What can I say?

But that doesn't mean I won't take a stab at predictions, especially since tonight could potentially clear up or complicate the acting categories. So:

Female Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Julianne Moore.

But: Wouldn't it be hilarious/brilliant if Jennifer Aniston won?

Male Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Michael Keaton.

But: People love Eddie Redmayne in his movie.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Patricia Arquette.

But: ....I've got nothing. Who could beat her? Who wouldn't want to see her give another acceptance speech written on and then torn from a spiral notebook, while still vibrating with more class than anyone this season?

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: J.K. Simmons.

But: Maybe one voting body is finally ready to recognize Ethan Hawke??? (Unlikely, but I can dream!)

Ensemble Cast

Prediction: Birdman.

But: Boyhood still exists.

And as a bonus, I'm kicking off my own superlatives with my picks for Best Ensemble Cast, to continue the theme of acting awards. As you can tell by the image to the left, I included Birdman in my lineup like SAG did, and easily think it's the best of their lineup. My only hope is that they don't make the same embarrassing snafu that the BFCA made when it won for its ensemble category. Especially embarrassing since Andrea Riseborough is one of the film's unsung heroes.

The nominees are... (after the jump)

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Update (1/13/15): All predictions have been posted and finalized, with the exception of the Short Film categories, which I never predict.

Update (1/15/15): Updated with reactions to the actual nominees. I did much better than I expected to, ultimately, but to witness the continuance of the Academy's longstanding tradition of caring solely about white, male artists who make movies about white, male people has been more unfortunate than being wrong about any of my predictions.

Best Picture

Ranking these in order of likelihood, since we don't know how many nominees there will be.

1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

5. Selma
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Gone Girl

8. Foxcatcher

If there are 10:

9. Whiplash

10. American Sniper

Alternates: Interstellar; Into the Woods; Mr. Turner; Nightcrawler; Unbroken; 

-- I don't think Foxcatcher is as dead as some people think. Potential surprise in Director?

Outcome: 6/8. Well, at least I was on to something about Best Director, and the movie not being dead in general. At least Selma was nominated here, but still very disheartening. I'm not surprised by Whiplash getting in over Gone Girl, but am about American Sniper catching on as fast as it did.

Best Director: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Ava DuVernay, Selma; Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman; Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Alternates: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash; Clint Eastwood; American Sniper; David Fincher; Gone Girl; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

-- I haven't seen The Imitation Game yet, but the probable Tyldum nomination even seems unnecessary to me. Glad there's room for Anderson, but hope he isn't kicked out by Chazelle or Eastwood. I'm even more fearful of this happening to DuVernay.

Outcome: 4/5. Sort of cool to see the lone director slot back, but where is DuVernay?! Depressingly typical of voters' boy's club mentality when it comes to this category. What would've been even more depressing is if it were Chazelle or Eastwood to take her place.

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Sniper; Gone Girl; The Imitation Game; The Theory of Everything; Whiplash

Alternates: Inherent Vice; Still Alice; Wild

-- I'm a little more skeptical about Whiplash showing up than most are, and wonder how the last-minute categorization loop will really effect it, but it clearly has fans and enough potential coattail momentum via Simmons that it shouldn't be counted out. American Sniper seems safe here, considering the scarcity of contenders.

Outcome: 4/5. Interesting that between the two non-biographical adaptations of novels which both have potentially risky barriers to overcome in adapting their source material to film, it was P.T.A.'s hazy, hallucinogenic trip that triumphed over Gillian Flynn's tamer, calculating Gone Girl. Perhaps even more interesting is that it took her omission for both screenplay categories to contain all-male nominees. Just something to think about.

Best Original Screenplay: Birdman; Boyhood; The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mr. Turner; Selma

Alternates: Foxcatcher; Ida; A Most Violent Year; Nightcrawler; St. Vincent

-- The folks in the screenwriting branch clearly love Mike Leigh, though he does have a little more competition than usual this year. Selma might have arrived a little too late, but I think it piqued at just the right time for them to fully embrace it. Ida could be this year's A Separation.

Outcome: 3/5. Weird assumptions people have been making all morning: 1. The academy is in hate with Gyllenhaal and Nightcrawler, due to their purposeful "snubs"; 2. The quality of both is something that should be inherently recognized and evident to everyone; 3. A lone Screenplay nomination isn't something to be proud of, especially when its a movie that's this vexed and provoking.

Best Actress: Jennifer Aniston, Cake; Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Alternates: Amy Adams, Big Eyes; Emily Blunt, Into the Woods; Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Hilary Swank, The Homesman

-- Weirdly, I find Jones and Witherspoon more vulnerable than Aniston at this point. But: Cotillard never thrives at nomination-time (especially when she's fantastic in two movies); Adams has the opposite problem that Cotillard has, but has hardly been the steamroller that we thought she would be this season; and Blunt will have to rely solely on the coattails of Into the Woods if they happen to go crazy for it, but even so, it isn't the type of performance that screams to be nominated. So, in other words, they're probably safe.

Outcome: 4/5. I love Aniston in general, and am really looking forward to seeing Cake, but today's biggest silver lining has to be Marion Cotillard showing up here. My ideal nomination would've been for The Immigrant, but it's still great to see her nominated for equally outstanding work.

Best Actor: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton, Birdman; David Oyelowo, Selma; Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Alternates: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper; Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

-- Some might consider it unreasonable of me to predict Carell over Gyllenhaal, but there it is. I'm unreasonable. Hoping Fiennes replaces....Cumberbatch? Not getting my hopes up, though. (Also, no, I'm not even hearing the foolishness of them passing over Oyelowo!)

Outcome: 4/5. And with Cotillard's silver lining comes the most crushing omission of all. I'm certain Cooper and Cumberbatch both do fine jobs (especially Cooper; mostly just trying to be nice about Cumberbatch, since that movie looks so undesirable), but Oyelowo is so special in Selma, and an Oscar nomination would've only advanced his already-impressive career. Meanwhile Cooper would have to settle with his two consecutive Oscar nominations while Cumberbatch deals with the various franchises he's already attached to and the near-rabid fanbase he's had since Sherlock.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game; Rene Russo, Nightcrawler; Emma Stone, Birdman; Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Alternates: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Laura Dern, Wild; Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

-- Replaced Russo with Chastain, but maybe it could be Streep? I'm not even crazy about Swinton in Snowpiercer, but that would be something.

Outcome: 4/5. Ooh Laura Dern's here! Hi, Laura Dern! If there's one Nightcrawler "snub" I feel sad about, it's Russo. But still: good for Dern.

Best Suporting Actor: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood; Edward Norton, Birdman; Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Alternates: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Robert Duvall, The Judge; Chris Pine, Into the Woods; Tom Wilkinson, Selma

-- Dear Academy, 

Please DON'T commit category fraud with Carell. Even if it does mean you that you won't have to vote for Duvall. Just go with Brolin or Wilkinson, we'll be fine. Also: ignore the naysayers who claim that Hawke is just playing himself. This category needs more generous performers like him that actually support their ensemble.

Outcome: 4/5. Well, I guess I have to watch The Judge now. 

Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6; How to Train Your Dragon 2; The LEGO Movie; Song of the Sea; The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Alternates: The Book of Life; The Boxtrolls

-- Weirdly uninvested in this category this year. Can't even muster enthusiasm to watch How to Train Your Dragon 2. Loved the first one, it's been out on DVD for months, but nothing will do. Just vote for Big Hero 6 and I'll be happy.

Outcome: 4/5. Missed my chance to see The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, but it will be on DVD soon, as will The Boxtrolls, which I also didn't see. So weird about The LEGO Movie.

Best Documentary: Citizenfour; Last Days in Vietnam; Life Itself; The Overnighters; Virunga

Alternates: The Case Against 8; Finding Vivian Maier; Keep on Keepin' On; The Kill Team ....and The Salt of the Earth!

-- Wish National Gallery could be here, but not the least bit surprised it didn't make the finalists list.

Outcome: 3/5. Feeling a little sad for Steve James, who seemingly can't catch a break in this category, but I'm glad for Citizenfour, not that there was ever any doubt it would be nominated.

Best Foreign Language Film: Force Majeure (Sweden); Ida (Poland); Leviathan (Russia); The Liberator (Venezuela); Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alternates: Accused (The Netherlands); Corn Island (Georgia); Tangerines (Estonia); Timbuktu (Mauritania)

-- Ida is a clear lock. Force Majeure and Wild Tales shouldn't have trouble. Could easily see Tangerines and Timbuktu replacing Leviathan and The Liberator.

Outcome: 3/5. Only miffed that Force Majeure missed because it was the only one I had seen aside from Ida. So excited about Timbuktu. If anyone gets a chance they should watch Abderrahmane Sissako's last feature, Bamako. Here I'll help.

Best Cinematography: Birdman; The Grand Budapest Hotel; Ida; Interstellar; Mr. Turner

Alternates: The Homesman; A Most Violent Year; Selma; Unbroken

-- Rare of them to "snub" Deakins, but I'm feeling Unbroken only shows up in Sound. If that.

Outcome: 4/5. Hooray for Ida! I haven't seen Unbroken yet, but I definitely don't want them to give Deakins "his due" if that means Birdman loses.

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel; Into the Woods; Maleficent; Mr. Turner; Selma

Alternates: Big Eyes; Exodus: Gods and Kings; The Imitation Game; The Theory of Everything ....and Inherent Vice!

-- Fingers crossed they finally recognize an Anderson film in this category! The rest seem pretty standard for this branch, no?

Outcome: 4/5. I got not one Anderson film, but two! Really didn't see Inherent Vice coming.

Best Film Editing: Boyhood; Gone Girl; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Selma

Alternates: Birdman; Nightcrawler; The Theory of Everything; Whiplash ....and American Sniper

-- I can see voters thinking: "But there were only, like, ten cuts in the whole movie," re: Birdman, so more Budapest love.

Outcome: 3/5. Strange. Fincher's movies usually show up here. Oh well. Do we think Whiplash would've made a top five?

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Foxcatcher; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Theory of Everything

Alternates: The Amazing Spider-Man 2; Guardians of the Galaxy; Maleficent; Noah

-- Terrible at predicting this category. Just terrible.

Outcome: 2/3. Did much better than usual! Surprised they didn't take the Redmayne-transformation hook that the studio was pushing, but I see why they would go for Guardians, instead.

Best Original Score: Gone Girl; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Interstellar; The Theory of Everything

Alternates: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; The Homesman; Unbroken ....and Mr. Turner!

-- Globe nods. Minus Birdman, plus Budapest, I think.

Outcome: 4/5. God, I can't wait to see Mr. Turner. One of my favorite elements of Gone Girl was its score, so it's a shame it wasn't nominated. Thrilled for Budapest and Interstellar!

Best Original Song: Begin Again, "Lost Stars"; Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me, "Not Going to Miss You"; The LEGO Movie, "Everything is Awesome"; Muppets Most Wanted, "Something So Right"; Selma, "Glory"

Alternates: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, "The Last Goodbye"; Muppets Most Wanted, "I'll Get You What You Want"; Noah, "Mercy Is" ....and Beyond the Lights!

-- I'm leaving out "Big Eyes", because that song is poisonous and corrodes everything in its path. Hopefully the Academy doesn't take a note from the HFPA and nominates Begin Again, instead.

Outcome: 4/5. Even without my favorite Muppets Most Wanted song in the lineup, this is still one of the best batches of nominees this category has had in a long time. Love the Beyond the Lights song, and I'm obviously over the moon for "Lost Stars".

Best Production Design: Birdman; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Interstellar; Into the Woods

Alternates: Exodus: Gods and Kings; The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; Maleficent; Mr. Turner; Noah; Snowpiercer

-- They love fantasy-tinged, CGI-enhanced forests in this category, so perhaps I shouldn't underestimate Maleficent. If they actually watched Snowpiercer, then I could totally see it win a nomination. Again, they seem to never go for Anderson in this category, but Budapest is really catching on, it seems.

Outcome: 4/5. Hm. Not much of a surprise for Birdman to miss here, but that would've been pretty neat.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper; Birdman; Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Fury; Transformers: Age of Extinction

Alternates: Godzilla; Gone Girl; Guardians of the Galaxy; Interstellar; Unbroken ....and The Hobbit

-- Hard to gauge how enthusiastic people are over American Sniper right now, but I can see it showing up here, at the very least.

Outcome: 2/5. Wow, they finally ignored a Transformers movie in this category! Almost made it one year without a Hobbit movie!

Best Sound Mixing: Birdman; Fury; The Grand Budapest Hotel; Guardians of the Galaxy; Into the Woods

Alternates: American Sniper; Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Gone Girl; Interstellar; Transformers: Age of Extinction; Unbroken ....and Whiplash

-- Probably going to regret putting Budapest here, but there it is. Great work; plus they also like Best Picture nominees in this category. I could see them doing Imitation Game, though.

Outcome: 2/5. Odd that they didn't go for Fury in either of these categories. I was actually beginning to think it might actually win one of them. I'm sure going with Budapest here will be the biggest laugh I get, give or take predicting Josh Brolin in Sup. Actor, but at least I tried to be unique!

Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Godzilla; Guardians of the Galaxy; Interstellar; Maleficent

Alternates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier; The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; Night at the Museum: The Secret of the Tomb; Transformers: Age of Extinction; X-Men: Days of Future Past

-- Just realized all of my Alternates have colons in their titles. Perhaps its unwise to go against any of these?

Outcome: 3/5. No Godzilla?!

2014 Globe Winner Predictions

It's been a month since my last post, and they were my prediction for the actual nominees, which I did decently well on. Likely won't have half the luck tonight, but here's what I think will win.

Best Picture: Drama

Prediction: I know some are predicting an upset in which the tides turn for Boyhood's "consensus" frontrunner status, but if that happens anywhere it'll be with PGA or DGA a la The Social Network and The King's Speech.

My Vote: Selma by a mile, though I quite like all of the nominees, barring The Imitation Game, which I haven't seen yet.

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy

Prediction: I could actually see The Grand Budapest Hotel surprising, though I'm gonna go with Birdman just to be on the safe side.

My Vote: Pride, if you can believe it. I just love movies about "London-based activists" who shake things up with all their magical, activist-like qualities and things.

Best Director

Prediction: I think Richard Linklater takes it regardless of potential surprises.

My Vote: Ava DuVernay, but everyone, give or take Fincher, excites me in this category.

Best Actress: Drama

Prediction: I'm guessing this is where Moore officially begins her Crazy Heart-like march to her first Oscar. And if there's anyone out there who deserves it it's her.

My Vote: Still Alice and Cake have only had one-week qualifying runs (a.k.a. the bane of my existence) and still haven't shown their faces to the public. So with that being said, I guess I'm a Reese Witherspoon voter, less for satisfying the larger emotions of the script than for how moving and alert she is to the reticence of Cheryl's internal journey.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy

Prediction: I think Julianne Moore might just Winslet her way to two Globes in one night. It's not like they'll never have another opportunity to give Emily Blunt her second Globe.

My Vote: I'm dying to see Moore in Maps to the Stars, but since we have to wait a while on that, then I think Blunt would be my choice.

Best Actor: Drama

Prediction: Eddie Redmayne, who also seems like a threat to win the Oscar. Steve Carell or David Oyelowo would be nice surprises

My Vote: Oyelowo in a squeaker over Carell. Carell has more interesting barriers to overcome in evoking character from his director's occasionally overbearing atmosphere and the bizarre eccentricities written into his character, but Oyelowo constructs a whole interior life from MLK's legendary figure, while remaining generous to each peripheral character's stories. Remarkable achievement.

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy

Prediction: Michael Keaton.

My Vote: Keaton, because he's rangy and terrific in a daunting, hubristic, tonally complex part, while showing surprising adeptness working within a colorful ensemble of characters.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Patricia Arquette, because I'm feeling particularly dangerous today.

My Vote: Emma Stone, though I like Arquette very much and thought Meryl Streep had her moments in Into the Woods. Still need to see  The Imitation Game and A Most Violent Year.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: J.K. Simmons, because do I need to even explain at this point?

My Vote: Ethan Hawke, who not only emerges as the best of the four other nominees, but the best thing about Boyhood in general. Where some people see his performance as essentially "playing himself," I see it as a wise, unshowy approach that is key to delving into Mason Sr.'s dubious affability, working off of his own star persona in smarter and more revealing ways than Norton or Simmons do.

Best Screenplay

Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel, which would be its sole win of the night. Seems right.

My Vote: Probably Budapest, but Birdman and Boyhood both impress in this field.

Best Original Score

Prediction: The Theory of Everything, but I could see a Birdman win.

My Vote: Interstellar, but I generally like all of these scores, except for The Imitation Game, which I'm not very familiar with. Birdman's my second choice.

Best Original Song

Prediction: "Glory"

My Vote: Anything but "Big Eyes"!

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: The LEGO Movie

My Vote: I've only seen 40% of the nominees, but I like Big Hero 6 a lot.

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: Ida

My Vote: I've only seen Ida and Force Majeure, and I easily prefer the former to the latter. Excited to see the other nominees, especially Leviathan.

2014 Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture: Drama

• Boyhood
• The Imitation Game
• Selma
• The Theory of Everything
• Unbroken

Runners-up: Gone Girl, Interstellar, Whiplash, Wild

Oh, yeah: Foxcatcher

-- I'm dubious on Unbroken's Oscar chances, but this looks right up the HFPA's alley. I'm not sure how I'm feeling about the movie at the moment (Gump-ian schematic schmaltz? Earnest passion project? Both?), but I know I'll be in breathless anticipation to see Angie's classical, red-carpet poise. It's half the fun of the Globes!

Outcome: 4/5. I'm mostly dumbfounded that I didn't even list Foxcatcher as a runner-up. This might be enough to sustain its buzz, which has been dying down since the beginning of fall. Not as upset over me being wrong about Unbroken's nominatability as I am over the fact that Angie probably isn't going to be at the ceremony in all of her glory. That's one bit of star-fucking that I wouldn't have minded, Globes!

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy

• Big Eyes
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Hundred-Foot Journey
• Into the Woods

Runners-Up: Begin Again, Get on Up, St. Vincent, Top Five

Look at That: Pride!

-- Birdman, Budapest, and Into the Woods should slide easily into the field. The Hundred-Foot Journey and Big Eyes, meanwhile are the Musical/Comedy equivalent of how I deduced Jolie's Unbroken to be a potential threat in the Drama category. I.e. neither are going to be major Oscar contenders, but whether it comes from approval-seeking appeal to the public/industry or from votes that are vaguely inspired by semi-dated buzz, this category often manages to come up with some of the most baffling picks out of any of the categories. (With Big Eyes, think My Week With Marilyn; with The Hundred-Foot Journey, think Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.)

Outcome: 3/5. I'm sure Big Eyes and The Hundred Foot Journey weren't too far off from receiving a nomination, but honestly I'm just too elated that my beloved Pride was able to fight its way to a nomination to really care that I was wrong. A significantly improved lineup because of it, barring St. Vincent and Into the Woods, which are still sights unseen to me.

Best Director

• Ava DuVernay – Selma
• Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Angelina Jolie – Unbroken
• Richard Linklater – Boyhood
• Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Runners-up: Chazelle, Whiplash; Fincher, Gone Girl; Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Nolan, Interstellar

Faint Glimmers of Civilization: Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

-- If this prediction is correct, the headlines are going to be hilarious/maddeningly narrow-minded tomorrow! "Golden Globe Nods Announced! Insert Hysterical, Counter-productive Comment About How Crazy It Is That Two Females Were Nominated in This Category. Who Was Snubbed?!"

Outcome: 3/5. Wow! A pretty great lineup. I don't think Budapest is ever going to be my favorite Wes Anderson film, but in a lot of ways its one of his most mature directorial achievements, stretching his aesthetic to rich thematic deftness. I'm not the biggest fan of Gone Girl and even think Fincher's gifts at rhythms and scene-construction occasionally falter here, but he's certainly been lauded for worse (hi, Benjamin Button), and I do find myself thinking about it more than most movies I've seen this year.

Best Actress: Drama

• Jennifer Aniston – Cake
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Runners-up: Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Swank, The Homesman

Dark Horses: Johansson, Under the Skin; Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

-- All four of my runners-up/dark horses seem like pretty viable candidates at this point (they like Cotillard, Swank and Johansson a lot, and Woodley is a big, emerging star in a very popular film/performance), but I just can't imagine who they'd replace. I'm beginning to think that Aniston might be safer than Jones or Pike at this point, because that performance is catching on insanely fast, though I feel pretty good with all of them. I'm just ready for all of these to open, because I've only seen Gone Girl, so far. I'm aware that The Theory of Everything has been playing everywhere for the past couple of weeks, but Thanksgiving and finals have been consuming most of my free time. This weekend, for sure.

Outcome: 5/5. I should give myself kudos for the predictions, but Cotillard and Swank are so amazing in their movies that I hate to see it boil down to just these five (and maybe Adams) when the race was getting really competitive. Don't forget about them!

Best Actor: Drama

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• David Oyelowo – Selma
• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

Runners-up: Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Tatum, Foxcatcher

-- After today's SAG nomination I'm beginning to think that I'm underestimating Gyllenhaal in this category, which a lot of people seem to think he'll show up in, but I could see this being Cooper's place to shine.

Outcome: 4/5. Really thought Cooper would pop up here, but I guess Gyllenhaal's supporters were just too strong.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes
• Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
• Angelina Jolie – Maleficent
• Keira Knightley – Begin Again
• Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey

Runners-up: Slate, Obvious Child; Wallis, Annie; Byrne, Neighbors; Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights; Wigg, The Skeleton Twins

Eligible?: So confused about Julianne Moore's Maps to the Stars situation, which is apparently eligible for Globe consideration, but not Oscar?

-- I have to mimic The Atlantic's Joe Reid in saying that if there were only one prediction that I would put money on, it would have to be Emily Blunt showing up for Into the Woods. The Globes love her! She's in a musical! It's hers for the taking! I think the verdict on Maleficent's ambiguous category placement is Comedy, so Jolie also seems like a safe bet since they love her as much as Blunt. I think she's genuinely very good in the movie, so it wouldn't be as egregious star-fucking as, say, The Tourist. Fingers crossed for Jenny Slate or Rose Byrne, pound-for-pound the best comedic performances of the year.

Outcome: 3/5. Well, that answers my question about Moore, who I'm always happy for, but I still don't get how this is eligible since the film isn't coming out this year. Halle Berry had the same thing happen to her with Frankie & Alice, which didn't even come out until this year. Too bad for Knightley. So good in Begin Again.

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy

• Chadwick Boseman – Get on Up
• Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Bill Murray – St. Vincent
• Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice

Runners-up: Corden, Into the Woods; Hader, The Skeleton Twins; Lithgow, Love is Strange; Rock, Top Five; Ruffalo, Begin Again

Very Well: Waltz, Big Eyes (predicted in Supporting)

-- I feel good with these five, predictions-wise, though any of these five, give or take Lithgow, might have a legitimate shot. Keaton will win it in a walk.

Outcome: 4/5. I figured the studios had placed Waltz in the Supporting category, considering that's where they're campaigning him. Even if I had known, I probably would have predicted him to take Phoenix's place, not Boseman's.

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Runners-up: Dern, Wild; Kendrick, Into the Woods; Russo, Nightcrawler; Watts, St. Vincent

-- Unless Watts shows up again, I don't see any surprises in this category, unfortunately. Dern or Kendrick wouldn't shock me, but if they go for Jake, then maybe Russo could find a way in this time?

Outcome: 5/5. Our Oscar lineup?

Best Supporting Actor

• Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
• Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma

Runners-up: Brolin, Inherent Vice; Duvall, The Judge; Hawke, Boyhood; Miyavi, Unbroken; Pine, Into the Woods

Or (Gulp): Depp, Into the Woods

-- Using the predictions I used for SAG, assuming that Selma has a firmer foundation from the voting block, and that Big Eyes will pique their interest. Hope Hawke finds a way in again (don't want to jinx it).  I wish (I Wish...) I were kidding about Depp, but who can tell with this group, you know?

Outcome: 3/5. Same nominees, different day. Who keeps voting for Duvall, anyway? Reeeeaaaallly don't want to watch The Judge.

Best Screenplay

• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Boyhood
• Gone Girl
• The Imitation Game
• Selma

Runners-up: Big Eyes, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, Unbroken, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Outcome: 4/5. Well, if Anderson is safe anywhere at the Oscars, it'll be this category.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Force Majure
• Ida
• Mommy
• Two Days, One Night
• Wild Tales

Runners-up: Beloved Sister, Leviathan, Norte, the End of History, Winter Sleep

Oh, And: Gett: The Trial of Vivianne Amsalem, Tangerines

-- Unsure as to where The Tale of the Princess Kaguya stands in terms of eligibility. Could be a threat a la The Wind Rises, last year. If there's any lengthy, existentially-charged film getting in, it's probably going to be Winter Sleep instead of Norte, sadly. Only because I love Norte. I haven't seen Winter Sleep yet.

Outcome: 2/5. Assumed wrongly that Mommy and Two Days, One Night would be more HFPA's speed than Leviathan. Excited to see Gett.

Best Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• The LEGO Movie
• Penguins of Madagascar
• The Tale of the Princes Kaguya

Runners-up: The Book of Life, The Boxtrolls, Rio 2

-- I must have taken some bad-mood pills before I watched The LEGO Movie the first time, because having rewatched it recently, it vastly improved, and is an utter delight throughout. Go figure! The only other animated film I've seen this year is Big Hero 6, which is just as delightful and also quite touching. In a time where movies about superheroes are becoming increasingly taxing and derivative of one another in hollow stakes, postures, and concepts, it was so refreshing to see an emotionally mature take on an inherently well-intentioned being "gearing up" to take down the ideologically corrupt plot of a psychopath. I sincerely hope it doesn't miss out in this uncommonly competitive year for this category. Also? So. Effing. Huggable.

Outcome: 3/5. I really wanted to see The Book of Life and The Boxtrolls. 

2014 SAG Predictions or (The Sadly Undervalued Virtue of Left-Field Choices)

It's Globe, SAG and BFCA week! The week where we turn from the critics awards, which actually offered a few surprises, to the precursors that will likely give us the same names in an attempt to predict the Oscars instead of giving thoughtful and carefully considered choices. Hooray!

Best Ensemble Cast

• Boyhood
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Foxcatcher
• Gone Girl
• Into the Woods

Other Possibilities:

The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken

Should Be Considered:

Pride. Seriously people, let's not toss this under the bus just because its box office performance wasn't great and it strays a bit from the list of films that aren't a part of the narrative.

-- On principle I'm pulling for Selma and The Grand Budapest Hotel in this category, due to how much support they need compared to the others (give or take Foxcatcher). Granted, I'm not helping matters by continuing the cycle of predicting "safe" films for major precursors, but 'tis the season. Then again, some might argue that Gone Girl isn't such a sure bet itself, but I think industry folk will really go for it, despite how ugly and divisive its story and characters are. A big plus: large, well-respected cast.

Outcome: 2/5. You mean my continuous stumping for Pride in this category didn't have any impact? While I'm happy for the Grand Budapest cast and the film itself,  I'm not sure I'd call the actual ensemble performance exemplary on the whole. It's a shame that the love didn't extend to the Best Actor field since Fiennes is pretty spectacular in it. Not surprised by the inclusion of The Imitation Game, but probably should be less shocked by The Theory of Everything's nomination and Gone Girl's miss. Even more befuddled by Into the Woods failing to show up here.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Other Possibilities:

Aniston, Cake; Blunt, Into the Woods; Cotillard, The Immigrant; Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Mbatha-Raw, Belle; Swank, The Homesman

Should Be Considered:

Marion Cotillard is gaining more notices for her devastating work in The Immigrant than I had originally anticipated given the Weinsteins' evident ambivalence towards the film. It was only barely released back in May (playing for one measly week in Nashville), and there's neither a web page or a DVD/Blu-ray release. Literally zero effort has been put into an awards campaign for Cotillard or the film, and yet, she's already taken home two critics prizes for it, as well as Two Days, One Night. IF she's nominated -- and that's a big, hesitant IF, since she hasn't even been nominated since La Vie en Rose -- it'll probably be for her almost-as-great work in Two Days, One Night, which has more buzz at the moment, but I'm just happy she's in the conversation at all. Even more under-the-radar actresses include: Essie Davis (The Babadook), Keira Knightley (Begin Again), Elizabeth Worth (Unrelated), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Beyond the Lights), and Jenny Slate (Obvious Child).

-- Not to freak out over Cotillard again, -- because I obviously can't stand talking about her! -- but if any of my predicted nominees are vulnerable at the moment (Adams, Jones, and maybe Pike), I could see her showing up for Two Days, One Night (or, you know, The Immigrant). They nominated her for Rust and Bone, so she clearly has fans. I just have this fear that these names are going to be default picks for so many members that a performance from a tiny Dardenne Brothers movie will fall by the wayside. Also: they could have a preference for Swank, Blunt, or Aniston. Anyway, what was that about this being a "weak year" for Lead Actress?

Outcome: 4/5. I love Jennifer Aniston, and I haven't seen Cake yet, but to those who have is her performance really such a steamroller that it warrants the near-instantaneous accolades that she's been receiving for it? I mostly ask this out of curiosity, since the Friends-obsessed, 12-year-old version of me is sort of freaking out at the prospect of her first Oscar nomination. Not sure if its enough to cushion the blow of another Cotillard shut-out.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• David Oyelowo – Selma 
• Eddie Redmayne  – The Theory of Everything

Other Possibilities:

Cooper, American Sniper; Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Isaac, A Most Violent Year; O'Connell, Unbroken; Spall, Mr. Turner; Tatum, Foxcatcher; Teller, Whiplash

Should Be Considered:

Macon Blair is a big component of what makes Blue Ruin such a satisfying thriller, radiating stillness and fury, while applying both to Dwight's Everyman nature. Not that he actually has a shot at getting nominated.

-- I could realistically see Ralph Fiennes surprising in this category, especially if they actually nominate the film in Best Ensemble (my main reason for rooting for it there). I might even prefer him to Michael Keaton. Gyllenhaal and Teller are the only other serious contenders that I've actually seen so far, and I really don't see them upsetting here, so all I can really do is speculate. I know Foxcatcher's awards future is still uncertain at this point, but even if it doesn't pan out in terms of Oscar, I feel like the film will probably be admired here. I'm super excited for Selma and David Oyelowo in general, and hope that his unknown status doesn't get in the way. I'm more excited about The Theory of Everything/Redmayne than I was earlier in the fall, but my enthusiasm for Imitation Game/Cumberbatch has only gotten lower.

Outcome: 4/5. I think Jake is quite impressive in Nightcrawler, and as my future husband I'm obviously happy that he's being recognized for such unnerving work. That being said, if anyone had to unseat Oyelowo, I really wish it could have been Ralph Fiennes, who also needs the support that this nomination has brought Gyllenhaal. Speaking of Oyelowo, I don't think his or the film's omission hurt either of their Oscar chances. I'm guessing this is more of an instance where voters just didn't see the film in time.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year 
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game 
• Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods 

Other Possibilities:

Coon, Gone Girl; Dern, Wild; Dickens, Gone Girl; Kendrick, Into the Woods; Russo, Nightcrawler; Stewart, Still Alice; Watts, Birdman

Whadd'ya know: Watts, St. Vincent

Should Be Considered:

LAFCA absolutely did the right thing handing Best Supporting Actress to Agata Kulesza for Ida, even though it probably would've been Arquette had they not categorized her as a Lead. Kulesza straddles the categorical line herself, but remains generous and understated throughout her characterization as not to overshadow her even more muted screen partner. The movie is now available on Netflix Instant, so you should definitely watch it.

-- This will be an easy get for Arquette and Stone. Streep is very likely, as usual. I love Jessica Chastain, but her placement here just seems so weirdly confounding, especially since she was only recently pushed to this category at the last second. Maybe it'll make more sense when I actually see the movie. Knightley's looking vulnerale-ish, but she should find a way in, since it's basically only these five names that are being talked about. My biggest hope: Kim Dickens in Gone Girl. My favorite performance from that film!

Outcome: 4/5. I guess I need to see St. Vincent now, too? Nothing about the film or Watts' role seem appealing to me, but I have heard a couple of defenses of her performance this morning. Must-see factor never registered a month ago, but it's still showing in one theater near me, so maybe I can work it in.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
• Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma

Other Possibilities:

Brolin, Inherent Vice; Duvall, The Judge; Hawke, Boyhood; Perry, Gone Girl; Pine, Into the Woods

Should Be Considered:

Not that he will be considered in any capacity, but as it turns out Tom Hiddleston was charming our pants off long before we knew him as Loki in Joanna Hogg's brilliant and much-delayed debut feature, Unrelated. Shot while he was in his mid-20s, Hiddleston plays the listless but alluringly jovial Oakley, who gives the film's protagonist a good time, while convincing us of his concern for and reluctance to connect with her. Seek this out!

-- I truly hope I'm wrong about Ethan Hawke missing here, since, to me, he's hands-down the MVP of Boyhood. AND: I easily prefer him to Norton or Simmons. Waltz is again being campaigned in the Supporting category for a lead role, and with two spots up for grabs and an industry that loves him.... It's just a hunch. And I really hope I'm wrong.

Outcome: 3/5. Yay, Ethan Hawke! With Supporting Actor being as quiet as it is, this is probably a good sign for his Oscar chances. Norton, Ruffalo, and Simmons should get in easily, but that leaves one wide-open slot, which Duvall could easily take if campaigning for Wilkinson doesn't take off. I DO NOT want to see The Judge. Let's hope this is akin to Armie Hammer's nomination for J. Edgar.