It's been a month since my last post, and they were my prediction for the actual nominees, which I did decently well on. Likely won't have half the luck tonight, but here's what I think will win.
Best Picture: Drama
Prediction: I know some are predicting an upset in which the tides turn for Boyhood's "consensus" frontrunner status, but if that happens anywhere it'll be with PGA or DGA a la The Social Network and The King's Speech.
My Vote: Selma by a mile, though I quite like all of the nominees, barring The Imitation Game, which I haven't seen yet.
Best Picture: Musical or Comedy
Prediction: I could actually see The Grand Budapest Hotel surprising, though I'm gonna go with Birdman just to be on the safe side.
My Vote: Pride, if you can believe it. I just love movies about "London-based activists" who shake things up with all their magical, activist-like qualities and things.
Best Director
Prediction: I think Richard Linklater takes it regardless of potential surprises.
My Vote: Ava DuVernay, but everyone, give or take Fincher, excites me in this category.
Best Actress: Drama
Prediction: I'm guessing this is where Moore officially begins her Crazy Heart-like march to her first Oscar. And if there's anyone out there who deserves it it's her.
My Vote: Still Alice and Cake have only had one-week qualifying runs (a.k.a. the bane of my existence) and still haven't shown their faces to the public. So with that being said, I guess I'm a Reese Witherspoon voter, less for satisfying the larger emotions of the script than for how moving and alert she is to the reticence of Cheryl's internal journey.
Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Prediction: I think Julianne Moore might just Winslet her way to two Globes in one night. It's not like they'll never have another opportunity to give Emily Blunt her second Globe.
My Vote: I'm dying to see Moore in Maps to the Stars, but since we have to wait a while on that, then I think Blunt would be my choice.
Best Actor: Drama
Prediction: Eddie Redmayne, who also seems like a threat to win the Oscar. Steve Carell or David Oyelowo would be nice surprises
My Vote: Oyelowo in a squeaker over Carell. Carell has more interesting barriers to overcome in evoking character from his director's occasionally overbearing atmosphere and the bizarre eccentricities written into his character, but Oyelowo constructs a whole interior life from MLK's legendary figure, while remaining generous to each peripheral character's stories. Remarkable achievement.
Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Prediction: Michael Keaton.
My Vote: Keaton, because he's rangy and terrific in a daunting, hubristic, tonally complex part, while showing surprising adeptness working within a colorful ensemble of characters.
Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Patricia Arquette, because I'm feeling particularly dangerous today.
My Vote: Emma Stone, though I like Arquette very much and thought Meryl Streep had her moments in Into the Woods. Still need to see The Imitation Game and A Most Violent Year.
Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: J.K. Simmons, because do I need to even explain at this point?
My Vote: Ethan Hawke, who not only emerges as the best of the four other nominees, but the best thing about Boyhood in general. Where some people see his performance as essentially "playing himself," I see it as a wise, unshowy approach that is key to delving into Mason Sr.'s dubious affability, working off of his own star persona in smarter and more revealing ways than Norton or Simmons do.
Best Screenplay
Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel, which would be its sole win of the night. Seems right.
My Vote: Probably Budapest, but Birdman and Boyhood both impress in this field.
Best Original Score
Prediction: The Theory of Everything, but I could see a Birdman win.
My Vote: Interstellar, but I generally like all of these scores, except for The Imitation Game, which I'm not very familiar with. Birdman's my second choice.
Best Original Song
Prediction: "Glory"
My Vote: Anything but "Big Eyes"!
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: The LEGO Movie
My Vote: I've only seen 40% of the nominees, but I like Big Hero 6 a lot.
Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: Ida
My Vote: I've only seen Ida and Force Majeure, and I easily prefer the former to the latter. Excited to see the other nominees, especially Leviathan.
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