2014 SAG Predictions or (The Sadly Undervalued Virtue of Left-Field Choices)

It's Globe, SAG and BFCA week! The week where we turn from the critics awards, which actually offered a few surprises, to the precursors that will likely give us the same names in an attempt to predict the Oscars instead of giving thoughtful and carefully considered choices. Hooray!

Best Ensemble Cast

• Boyhood
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Foxcatcher
• Gone Girl
• Into the Woods

Other Possibilities:

The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken

Should Be Considered:

Pride. Seriously people, let's not toss this under the bus just because its box office performance wasn't great and it strays a bit from the list of films that aren't a part of the narrative.

-- On principle I'm pulling for Selma and The Grand Budapest Hotel in this category, due to how much support they need compared to the others (give or take Foxcatcher). Granted, I'm not helping matters by continuing the cycle of predicting "safe" films for major precursors, but 'tis the season. Then again, some might argue that Gone Girl isn't such a sure bet itself, but I think industry folk will really go for it, despite how ugly and divisive its story and characters are. A big plus: large, well-respected cast.

Outcome: 2/5. You mean my continuous stumping for Pride in this category didn't have any impact? While I'm happy for the Grand Budapest cast and the film itself,  I'm not sure I'd call the actual ensemble performance exemplary on the whole. It's a shame that the love didn't extend to the Best Actor field since Fiennes is pretty spectacular in it. Not surprised by the inclusion of The Imitation Game, but probably should be less shocked by The Theory of Everything's nomination and Gone Girl's miss. Even more befuddled by Into the Woods failing to show up here.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Other Possibilities:

Aniston, Cake; Blunt, Into the Woods; Cotillard, The Immigrant; Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Mbatha-Raw, Belle; Swank, The Homesman

Should Be Considered:

Marion Cotillard is gaining more notices for her devastating work in The Immigrant than I had originally anticipated given the Weinsteins' evident ambivalence towards the film. It was only barely released back in May (playing for one measly week in Nashville), and there's neither a web page or a DVD/Blu-ray release. Literally zero effort has been put into an awards campaign for Cotillard or the film, and yet, she's already taken home two critics prizes for it, as well as Two Days, One Night. IF she's nominated -- and that's a big, hesitant IF, since she hasn't even been nominated since La Vie en Rose -- it'll probably be for her almost-as-great work in Two Days, One Night, which has more buzz at the moment, but I'm just happy she's in the conversation at all. Even more under-the-radar actresses include: Essie Davis (The Babadook), Keira Knightley (Begin Again), Elizabeth Worth (Unrelated), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Beyond the Lights), and Jenny Slate (Obvious Child).

-- Not to freak out over Cotillard again, -- because I obviously can't stand talking about her! -- but if any of my predicted nominees are vulnerable at the moment (Adams, Jones, and maybe Pike), I could see her showing up for Two Days, One Night (or, you know, The Immigrant). They nominated her for Rust and Bone, so she clearly has fans. I just have this fear that these names are going to be default picks for so many members that a performance from a tiny Dardenne Brothers movie will fall by the wayside. Also: they could have a preference for Swank, Blunt, or Aniston. Anyway, what was that about this being a "weak year" for Lead Actress?

Outcome: 4/5. I love Jennifer Aniston, and I haven't seen Cake yet, but to those who have is her performance really such a steamroller that it warrants the near-instantaneous accolades that she's been receiving for it? I mostly ask this out of curiosity, since the Friends-obsessed, 12-year-old version of me is sort of freaking out at the prospect of her first Oscar nomination. Not sure if its enough to cushion the blow of another Cotillard shut-out.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• David Oyelowo – Selma 
• Eddie Redmayne  – The Theory of Everything

Other Possibilities:

Cooper, American Sniper; Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Isaac, A Most Violent Year; O'Connell, Unbroken; Spall, Mr. Turner; Tatum, Foxcatcher; Teller, Whiplash

Should Be Considered:

Macon Blair is a big component of what makes Blue Ruin such a satisfying thriller, radiating stillness and fury, while applying both to Dwight's Everyman nature. Not that he actually has a shot at getting nominated.

-- I could realistically see Ralph Fiennes surprising in this category, especially if they actually nominate the film in Best Ensemble (my main reason for rooting for it there). I might even prefer him to Michael Keaton. Gyllenhaal and Teller are the only other serious contenders that I've actually seen so far, and I really don't see them upsetting here, so all I can really do is speculate. I know Foxcatcher's awards future is still uncertain at this point, but even if it doesn't pan out in terms of Oscar, I feel like the film will probably be admired here. I'm super excited for Selma and David Oyelowo in general, and hope that his unknown status doesn't get in the way. I'm more excited about The Theory of Everything/Redmayne than I was earlier in the fall, but my enthusiasm for Imitation Game/Cumberbatch has only gotten lower.

Outcome: 4/5. I think Jake is quite impressive in Nightcrawler, and as my future husband I'm obviously happy that he's being recognized for such unnerving work. That being said, if anyone had to unseat Oyelowo, I really wish it could have been Ralph Fiennes, who also needs the support that this nomination has brought Gyllenhaal. Speaking of Oyelowo, I don't think his or the film's omission hurt either of their Oscar chances. I'm guessing this is more of an instance where voters just didn't see the film in time.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year 
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game 
• Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods 

Other Possibilities:

Coon, Gone Girl; Dern, Wild; Dickens, Gone Girl; Kendrick, Into the Woods; Russo, Nightcrawler; Stewart, Still Alice; Watts, Birdman

Whadd'ya know: Watts, St. Vincent

Should Be Considered:

LAFCA absolutely did the right thing handing Best Supporting Actress to Agata Kulesza for Ida, even though it probably would've been Arquette had they not categorized her as a Lead. Kulesza straddles the categorical line herself, but remains generous and understated throughout her characterization as not to overshadow her even more muted screen partner. The movie is now available on Netflix Instant, so you should definitely watch it.

-- This will be an easy get for Arquette and Stone. Streep is very likely, as usual. I love Jessica Chastain, but her placement here just seems so weirdly confounding, especially since she was only recently pushed to this category at the last second. Maybe it'll make more sense when I actually see the movie. Knightley's looking vulnerale-ish, but she should find a way in, since it's basically only these five names that are being talked about. My biggest hope: Kim Dickens in Gone Girl. My favorite performance from that film!

Outcome: 4/5. I guess I need to see St. Vincent now, too? Nothing about the film or Watts' role seem appealing to me, but I have heard a couple of defenses of her performance this morning. Must-see factor never registered a month ago, but it's still showing in one theater near me, so maybe I can work it in.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
• Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma

Other Possibilities:

Brolin, Inherent Vice; Duvall, The Judge; Hawke, Boyhood; Perry, Gone Girl; Pine, Into the Woods

Should Be Considered:

Not that he will be considered in any capacity, but as it turns out Tom Hiddleston was charming our pants off long before we knew him as Loki in Joanna Hogg's brilliant and much-delayed debut feature, Unrelated. Shot while he was in his mid-20s, Hiddleston plays the listless but alluringly jovial Oakley, who gives the film's protagonist a good time, while convincing us of his concern for and reluctance to connect with her. Seek this out!

-- I truly hope I'm wrong about Ethan Hawke missing here, since, to me, he's hands-down the MVP of Boyhood. AND: I easily prefer him to Norton or Simmons. Waltz is again being campaigned in the Supporting category for a lead role, and with two spots up for grabs and an industry that loves him.... It's just a hunch. And I really hope I'm wrong.

Outcome: 3/5. Yay, Ethan Hawke! With Supporting Actor being as quiet as it is, this is probably a good sign for his Oscar chances. Norton, Ruffalo, and Simmons should get in easily, but that leaves one wide-open slot, which Duvall could easily take if campaigning for Wilkinson doesn't take off. I DO NOT want to see The Judge. Let's hope this is akin to Armie Hammer's nomination for J. Edgar.