2014 Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture: Drama

• Boyhood
• The Imitation Game
• Selma
• The Theory of Everything
• Unbroken

Runners-up: Gone Girl, Interstellar, Whiplash, Wild

Oh, yeah: Foxcatcher

-- I'm dubious on Unbroken's Oscar chances, but this looks right up the HFPA's alley. I'm not sure how I'm feeling about the movie at the moment (Gump-ian schematic schmaltz? Earnest passion project? Both?), but I know I'll be in breathless anticipation to see Angie's classical, red-carpet poise. It's half the fun of the Globes!

Outcome: 4/5. I'm mostly dumbfounded that I didn't even list Foxcatcher as a runner-up. This might be enough to sustain its buzz, which has been dying down since the beginning of fall. Not as upset over me being wrong about Unbroken's nominatability as I am over the fact that Angie probably isn't going to be at the ceremony in all of her glory. That's one bit of star-fucking that I wouldn't have minded, Globes!

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy

• Big Eyes
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Hundred-Foot Journey
• Into the Woods

Runners-Up: Begin Again, Get on Up, St. Vincent, Top Five

Look at That: Pride!

-- Birdman, Budapest, and Into the Woods should slide easily into the field. The Hundred-Foot Journey and Big Eyes, meanwhile are the Musical/Comedy equivalent of how I deduced Jolie's Unbroken to be a potential threat in the Drama category. I.e. neither are going to be major Oscar contenders, but whether it comes from approval-seeking appeal to the public/industry or from votes that are vaguely inspired by semi-dated buzz, this category often manages to come up with some of the most baffling picks out of any of the categories. (With Big Eyes, think My Week With Marilyn; with The Hundred-Foot Journey, think Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.)

Outcome: 3/5. I'm sure Big Eyes and The Hundred Foot Journey weren't too far off from receiving a nomination, but honestly I'm just too elated that my beloved Pride was able to fight its way to a nomination to really care that I was wrong. A significantly improved lineup because of it, barring St. Vincent and Into the Woods, which are still sights unseen to me.

Best Director

• Ava DuVernay – Selma
• Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Angelina Jolie – Unbroken
• Richard Linklater – Boyhood
• Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Runners-up: Chazelle, Whiplash; Fincher, Gone Girl; Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Nolan, Interstellar

Faint Glimmers of Civilization: Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

-- If this prediction is correct, the headlines are going to be hilarious/maddeningly narrow-minded tomorrow! "Golden Globe Nods Announced! Insert Hysterical, Counter-productive Comment About How Crazy It Is That Two Females Were Nominated in This Category. Who Was Snubbed?!"

Outcome: 3/5. Wow! A pretty great lineup. I don't think Budapest is ever going to be my favorite Wes Anderson film, but in a lot of ways its one of his most mature directorial achievements, stretching his aesthetic to rich thematic deftness. I'm not the biggest fan of Gone Girl and even think Fincher's gifts at rhythms and scene-construction occasionally falter here, but he's certainly been lauded for worse (hi, Benjamin Button), and I do find myself thinking about it more than most movies I've seen this year.

Best Actress: Drama

• Jennifer Aniston – Cake
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Runners-up: Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Swank, The Homesman

Dark Horses: Johansson, Under the Skin; Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

-- All four of my runners-up/dark horses seem like pretty viable candidates at this point (they like Cotillard, Swank and Johansson a lot, and Woodley is a big, emerging star in a very popular film/performance), but I just can't imagine who they'd replace. I'm beginning to think that Aniston might be safer than Jones or Pike at this point, because that performance is catching on insanely fast, though I feel pretty good with all of them. I'm just ready for all of these to open, because I've only seen Gone Girl, so far. I'm aware that The Theory of Everything has been playing everywhere for the past couple of weeks, but Thanksgiving and finals have been consuming most of my free time. This weekend, for sure.

Outcome: 5/5. I should give myself kudos for the predictions, but Cotillard and Swank are so amazing in their movies that I hate to see it boil down to just these five (and maybe Adams) when the race was getting really competitive. Don't forget about them!

Best Actor: Drama

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• David Oyelowo – Selma
• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

Runners-up: Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Tatum, Foxcatcher

-- After today's SAG nomination I'm beginning to think that I'm underestimating Gyllenhaal in this category, which a lot of people seem to think he'll show up in, but I could see this being Cooper's place to shine.

Outcome: 4/5. Really thought Cooper would pop up here, but I guess Gyllenhaal's supporters were just too strong.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes
• Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
• Angelina Jolie – Maleficent
• Keira Knightley – Begin Again
• Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey

Runners-up: Slate, Obvious Child; Wallis, Annie; Byrne, Neighbors; Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights; Wigg, The Skeleton Twins

Eligible?: So confused about Julianne Moore's Maps to the Stars situation, which is apparently eligible for Globe consideration, but not Oscar?

-- I have to mimic The Atlantic's Joe Reid in saying that if there were only one prediction that I would put money on, it would have to be Emily Blunt showing up for Into the Woods. The Globes love her! She's in a musical! It's hers for the taking! I think the verdict on Maleficent's ambiguous category placement is Comedy, so Jolie also seems like a safe bet since they love her as much as Blunt. I think she's genuinely very good in the movie, so it wouldn't be as egregious star-fucking as, say, The Tourist. Fingers crossed for Jenny Slate or Rose Byrne, pound-for-pound the best comedic performances of the year.

Outcome: 3/5. Well, that answers my question about Moore, who I'm always happy for, but I still don't get how this is eligible since the film isn't coming out this year. Halle Berry had the same thing happen to her with Frankie & Alice, which didn't even come out until this year. Too bad for Knightley. So good in Begin Again.

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy

• Chadwick Boseman – Get on Up
• Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Bill Murray – St. Vincent
• Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice

Runners-up: Corden, Into the Woods; Hader, The Skeleton Twins; Lithgow, Love is Strange; Rock, Top Five; Ruffalo, Begin Again

Very Well: Waltz, Big Eyes (predicted in Supporting)

-- I feel good with these five, predictions-wise, though any of these five, give or take Lithgow, might have a legitimate shot. Keaton will win it in a walk.

Outcome: 4/5. I figured the studios had placed Waltz in the Supporting category, considering that's where they're campaigning him. Even if I had known, I probably would have predicted him to take Phoenix's place, not Boseman's.

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Runners-up: Dern, Wild; Kendrick, Into the Woods; Russo, Nightcrawler; Watts, St. Vincent

-- Unless Watts shows up again, I don't see any surprises in this category, unfortunately. Dern or Kendrick wouldn't shock me, but if they go for Jake, then maybe Russo could find a way in this time?

Outcome: 5/5. Our Oscar lineup?

Best Supporting Actor

• Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
• Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma

Runners-up: Brolin, Inherent Vice; Duvall, The Judge; Hawke, Boyhood; Miyavi, Unbroken; Pine, Into the Woods

Or (Gulp): Depp, Into the Woods

-- Using the predictions I used for SAG, assuming that Selma has a firmer foundation from the voting block, and that Big Eyes will pique their interest. Hope Hawke finds a way in again (don't want to jinx it).  I wish (I Wish...) I were kidding about Depp, but who can tell with this group, you know?

Outcome: 3/5. Same nominees, different day. Who keeps voting for Duvall, anyway? Reeeeaaaallly don't want to watch The Judge.

Best Screenplay

• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Boyhood
• Gone Girl
• The Imitation Game
• Selma

Runners-up: Big Eyes, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, Unbroken, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Outcome: 4/5. Well, if Anderson is safe anywhere at the Oscars, it'll be this category.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Force Majure
• Ida
• Mommy
• Two Days, One Night
• Wild Tales

Runners-up: Beloved Sister, Leviathan, Norte, the End of History, Winter Sleep

Oh, And: Gett: The Trial of Vivianne Amsalem, Tangerines

-- Unsure as to where The Tale of the Princess Kaguya stands in terms of eligibility. Could be a threat a la The Wind Rises, last year. If there's any lengthy, existentially-charged film getting in, it's probably going to be Winter Sleep instead of Norte, sadly. Only because I love Norte. I haven't seen Winter Sleep yet.

Outcome: 2/5. Assumed wrongly that Mommy and Two Days, One Night would be more HFPA's speed than Leviathan. Excited to see Gett.

Best Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• The LEGO Movie
• Penguins of Madagascar
• The Tale of the Princes Kaguya

Runners-up: The Book of Life, The Boxtrolls, Rio 2

-- I must have taken some bad-mood pills before I watched The LEGO Movie the first time, because having rewatched it recently, it vastly improved, and is an utter delight throughout. Go figure! The only other animated film I've seen this year is Big Hero 6, which is just as delightful and also quite touching. In a time where movies about superheroes are becoming increasingly taxing and derivative of one another in hollow stakes, postures, and concepts, it was so refreshing to see an emotionally mature take on an inherently well-intentioned being "gearing up" to take down the ideologically corrupt plot of a psychopath. I sincerely hope it doesn't miss out in this uncommonly competitive year for this category. Also? So. Effing. Huggable.

Outcome: 3/5. I really wanted to see The Book of Life and The Boxtrolls.