2014 Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture: Drama

• Boyhood
• The Imitation Game
• Selma
• The Theory of Everything
• Unbroken

Runners-up: Gone Girl, Interstellar, Whiplash, Wild

Oh, yeah: Foxcatcher

-- I'm dubious on Unbroken's Oscar chances, but this looks right up the HFPA's alley. I'm not sure how I'm feeling about the movie at the moment (Gump-ian schematic schmaltz? Earnest passion project? Both?), but I know I'll be in breathless anticipation to see Angie's classical, red-carpet poise. It's half the fun of the Globes!

Outcome: 4/5. I'm mostly dumbfounded that I didn't even list Foxcatcher as a runner-up. This might be enough to sustain its buzz, which has been dying down since the beginning of fall. Not as upset over me being wrong about Unbroken's nominatability as I am over the fact that Angie probably isn't going to be at the ceremony in all of her glory. That's one bit of star-fucking that I wouldn't have minded, Globes!

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy

• Big Eyes
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Hundred-Foot Journey
• Into the Woods

Runners-Up: Begin Again, Get on Up, St. Vincent, Top Five

Look at That: Pride!

-- Birdman, Budapest, and Into the Woods should slide easily into the field. The Hundred-Foot Journey and Big Eyes, meanwhile are the Musical/Comedy equivalent of how I deduced Jolie's Unbroken to be a potential threat in the Drama category. I.e. neither are going to be major Oscar contenders, but whether it comes from approval-seeking appeal to the public/industry or from votes that are vaguely inspired by semi-dated buzz, this category often manages to come up with some of the most baffling picks out of any of the categories. (With Big Eyes, think My Week With Marilyn; with The Hundred-Foot Journey, think Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.)

Outcome: 3/5. I'm sure Big Eyes and The Hundred Foot Journey weren't too far off from receiving a nomination, but honestly I'm just too elated that my beloved Pride was able to fight its way to a nomination to really care that I was wrong. A significantly improved lineup because of it, barring St. Vincent and Into the Woods, which are still sights unseen to me.

Best Director

• Ava DuVernay – Selma
• Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Angelina Jolie – Unbroken
• Richard Linklater – Boyhood
• Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Runners-up: Chazelle, Whiplash; Fincher, Gone Girl; Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Nolan, Interstellar

Faint Glimmers of Civilization: Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

-- If this prediction is correct, the headlines are going to be hilarious/maddeningly narrow-minded tomorrow! "Golden Globe Nods Announced! Insert Hysterical, Counter-productive Comment About How Crazy It Is That Two Females Were Nominated in This Category. Who Was Snubbed?!"

Outcome: 3/5. Wow! A pretty great lineup. I don't think Budapest is ever going to be my favorite Wes Anderson film, but in a lot of ways its one of his most mature directorial achievements, stretching his aesthetic to rich thematic deftness. I'm not the biggest fan of Gone Girl and even think Fincher's gifts at rhythms and scene-construction occasionally falter here, but he's certainly been lauded for worse (hi, Benjamin Button), and I do find myself thinking about it more than most movies I've seen this year.

Best Actress: Drama

• Jennifer Aniston – Cake
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Runners-up: Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Swank, The Homesman

Dark Horses: Johansson, Under the Skin; Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

-- All four of my runners-up/dark horses seem like pretty viable candidates at this point (they like Cotillard, Swank and Johansson a lot, and Woodley is a big, emerging star in a very popular film/performance), but I just can't imagine who they'd replace. I'm beginning to think that Aniston might be safer than Jones or Pike at this point, because that performance is catching on insanely fast, though I feel pretty good with all of them. I'm just ready for all of these to open, because I've only seen Gone Girl, so far. I'm aware that The Theory of Everything has been playing everywhere for the past couple of weeks, but Thanksgiving and finals have been consuming most of my free time. This weekend, for sure.

Outcome: 5/5. I should give myself kudos for the predictions, but Cotillard and Swank are so amazing in their movies that I hate to see it boil down to just these five (and maybe Adams) when the race was getting really competitive. Don't forget about them!

Best Actor: Drama

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• David Oyelowo – Selma
• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

Runners-up: Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Isaac, A Most Violent Year; Tatum, Foxcatcher

-- After today's SAG nomination I'm beginning to think that I'm underestimating Gyllenhaal in this category, which a lot of people seem to think he'll show up in, but I could see this being Cooper's place to shine.

Outcome: 4/5. Really thought Cooper would pop up here, but I guess Gyllenhaal's supporters were just too strong.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes
• Emily Blunt – Into the Woods
• Angelina Jolie – Maleficent
• Keira Knightley – Begin Again
• Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey

Runners-up: Slate, Obvious Child; Wallis, Annie; Byrne, Neighbors; Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights; Wigg, The Skeleton Twins

Eligible?: So confused about Julianne Moore's Maps to the Stars situation, which is apparently eligible for Globe consideration, but not Oscar?

-- I have to mimic The Atlantic's Joe Reid in saying that if there were only one prediction that I would put money on, it would have to be Emily Blunt showing up for Into the Woods. The Globes love her! She's in a musical! It's hers for the taking! I think the verdict on Maleficent's ambiguous category placement is Comedy, so Jolie also seems like a safe bet since they love her as much as Blunt. I think she's genuinely very good in the movie, so it wouldn't be as egregious star-fucking as, say, The Tourist. Fingers crossed for Jenny Slate or Rose Byrne, pound-for-pound the best comedic performances of the year.

Outcome: 3/5. Well, that answers my question about Moore, who I'm always happy for, but I still don't get how this is eligible since the film isn't coming out this year. Halle Berry had the same thing happen to her with Frankie & Alice, which didn't even come out until this year. Too bad for Knightley. So good in Begin Again.

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy

• Chadwick Boseman – Get on Up
• Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Bill Murray – St. Vincent
• Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice

Runners-up: Corden, Into the Woods; Hader, The Skeleton Twins; Lithgow, Love is Strange; Rock, Top Five; Ruffalo, Begin Again

Very Well: Waltz, Big Eyes (predicted in Supporting)

-- I feel good with these five, predictions-wise, though any of these five, give or take Lithgow, might have a legitimate shot. Keaton will win it in a walk.

Outcome: 4/5. I figured the studios had placed Waltz in the Supporting category, considering that's where they're campaigning him. Even if I had known, I probably would have predicted him to take Phoenix's place, not Boseman's.

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
• Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Runners-up: Dern, Wild; Kendrick, Into the Woods; Russo, Nightcrawler; Watts, St. Vincent

-- Unless Watts shows up again, I don't see any surprises in this category, unfortunately. Dern or Kendrick wouldn't shock me, but if they go for Jake, then maybe Russo could find a way in this time?

Outcome: 5/5. Our Oscar lineup?

Best Supporting Actor

• Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
• Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma

Runners-up: Brolin, Inherent Vice; Duvall, The Judge; Hawke, Boyhood; Miyavi, Unbroken; Pine, Into the Woods

Or (Gulp): Depp, Into the Woods

-- Using the predictions I used for SAG, assuming that Selma has a firmer foundation from the voting block, and that Big Eyes will pique their interest. Hope Hawke finds a way in again (don't want to jinx it).  I wish (I Wish...) I were kidding about Depp, but who can tell with this group, you know?

Outcome: 3/5. Same nominees, different day. Who keeps voting for Duvall, anyway? Reeeeaaaallly don't want to watch The Judge.

Best Screenplay

• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Boyhood
• Gone Girl
• The Imitation Game
• Selma

Runners-up: Big Eyes, The Grand Budapest Hotel, A Most Violent Year, Unbroken, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Outcome: 4/5. Well, if Anderson is safe anywhere at the Oscars, it'll be this category.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Force Majure
• Ida
• Mommy
• Two Days, One Night
• Wild Tales

Runners-up: Beloved Sister, Leviathan, Norte, the End of History, Winter Sleep

Oh, And: Gett: The Trial of Vivianne Amsalem, Tangerines

-- Unsure as to where The Tale of the Princess Kaguya stands in terms of eligibility. Could be a threat a la The Wind Rises, last year. If there's any lengthy, existentially-charged film getting in, it's probably going to be Winter Sleep instead of Norte, sadly. Only because I love Norte. I haven't seen Winter Sleep yet.

Outcome: 2/5. Assumed wrongly that Mommy and Two Days, One Night would be more HFPA's speed than Leviathan. Excited to see Gett.

Best Animated Feature

• Big Hero 6
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• The LEGO Movie
• Penguins of Madagascar
• The Tale of the Princes Kaguya

Runners-up: The Book of Life, The Boxtrolls, Rio 2

-- I must have taken some bad-mood pills before I watched The LEGO Movie the first time, because having rewatched it recently, it vastly improved, and is an utter delight throughout. Go figure! The only other animated film I've seen this year is Big Hero 6, which is just as delightful and also quite touching. In a time where movies about superheroes are becoming increasingly taxing and derivative of one another in hollow stakes, postures, and concepts, it was so refreshing to see an emotionally mature take on an inherently well-intentioned being "gearing up" to take down the ideologically corrupt plot of a psychopath. I sincerely hope it doesn't miss out in this uncommonly competitive year for this category. Also? So. Effing. Huggable.

Outcome: 3/5. I really wanted to see The Book of Life and The Boxtrolls. 

2014 SAG Predictions or (The Sadly Undervalued Virtue of Left-Field Choices)

It's Globe, SAG and BFCA week! The week where we turn from the critics awards, which actually offered a few surprises, to the precursors that will likely give us the same names in an attempt to predict the Oscars instead of giving thoughtful and carefully considered choices. Hooray!

Best Ensemble Cast

• Boyhood
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Foxcatcher
• Gone Girl
• Into the Woods

Other Possibilities:

The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken

Should Be Considered:

Pride. Seriously people, let's not toss this under the bus just because its box office performance wasn't great and it strays a bit from the list of films that aren't a part of the narrative.

-- On principle I'm pulling for Selma and The Grand Budapest Hotel in this category, due to how much support they need compared to the others (give or take Foxcatcher). Granted, I'm not helping matters by continuing the cycle of predicting "safe" films for major precursors, but 'tis the season. Then again, some might argue that Gone Girl isn't such a sure bet itself, but I think industry folk will really go for it, despite how ugly and divisive its story and characters are. A big plus: large, well-respected cast.

Outcome: 2/5. You mean my continuous stumping for Pride in this category didn't have any impact? While I'm happy for the Grand Budapest cast and the film itself,  I'm not sure I'd call the actual ensemble performance exemplary on the whole. It's a shame that the love didn't extend to the Best Actor field since Fiennes is pretty spectacular in it. Not surprised by the inclusion of The Imitation Game, but probably should be less shocked by The Theory of Everything's nomination and Gone Girl's miss. Even more befuddled by Into the Woods failing to show up here.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore – Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Other Possibilities:

Aniston, Cake; Blunt, Into the Woods; Cotillard, The Immigrant; Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Mbatha-Raw, Belle; Swank, The Homesman

Should Be Considered:

Marion Cotillard is gaining more notices for her devastating work in The Immigrant than I had originally anticipated given the Weinsteins' evident ambivalence towards the film. It was only barely released back in May (playing for one measly week in Nashville), and there's neither a web page or a DVD/Blu-ray release. Literally zero effort has been put into an awards campaign for Cotillard or the film, and yet, she's already taken home two critics prizes for it, as well as Two Days, One Night. IF she's nominated -- and that's a big, hesitant IF, since she hasn't even been nominated since La Vie en Rose -- it'll probably be for her almost-as-great work in Two Days, One Night, which has more buzz at the moment, but I'm just happy she's in the conversation at all. Even more under-the-radar actresses include: Essie Davis (The Babadook), Keira Knightley (Begin Again), Elizabeth Worth (Unrelated), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Beyond the Lights), and Jenny Slate (Obvious Child).

-- Not to freak out over Cotillard again, -- because I obviously can't stand talking about her! -- but if any of my predicted nominees are vulnerable at the moment (Adams, Jones, and maybe Pike), I could see her showing up for Two Days, One Night (or, you know, The Immigrant). They nominated her for Rust and Bone, so she clearly has fans. I just have this fear that these names are going to be default picks for so many members that a performance from a tiny Dardenne Brothers movie will fall by the wayside. Also: they could have a preference for Swank, Blunt, or Aniston. Anyway, what was that about this being a "weak year" for Lead Actress?

Outcome: 4/5. I love Jennifer Aniston, and I haven't seen Cake yet, but to those who have is her performance really such a steamroller that it warrants the near-instantaneous accolades that she's been receiving for it? I mostly ask this out of curiosity, since the Friends-obsessed, 12-year-old version of me is sort of freaking out at the prospect of her first Oscar nomination. Not sure if its enough to cushion the blow of another Cotillard shut-out.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• Michael Keaton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• David Oyelowo – Selma 
• Eddie Redmayne  – The Theory of Everything

Other Possibilities:

Cooper, American Sniper; Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Isaac, A Most Violent Year; O'Connell, Unbroken; Spall, Mr. Turner; Tatum, Foxcatcher; Teller, Whiplash

Should Be Considered:

Macon Blair is a big component of what makes Blue Ruin such a satisfying thriller, radiating stillness and fury, while applying both to Dwight's Everyman nature. Not that he actually has a shot at getting nominated.

-- I could realistically see Ralph Fiennes surprising in this category, especially if they actually nominate the film in Best Ensemble (my main reason for rooting for it there). I might even prefer him to Michael Keaton. Gyllenhaal and Teller are the only other serious contenders that I've actually seen so far, and I really don't see them upsetting here, so all I can really do is speculate. I know Foxcatcher's awards future is still uncertain at this point, but even if it doesn't pan out in terms of Oscar, I feel like the film will probably be admired here. I'm super excited for Selma and David Oyelowo in general, and hope that his unknown status doesn't get in the way. I'm more excited about The Theory of Everything/Redmayne than I was earlier in the fall, but my enthusiasm for Imitation Game/Cumberbatch has only gotten lower.

Outcome: 4/5. I think Jake is quite impressive in Nightcrawler, and as my future husband I'm obviously happy that he's being recognized for such unnerving work. That being said, if anyone had to unseat Oyelowo, I really wish it could have been Ralph Fiennes, who also needs the support that this nomination has brought Gyllenhaal. Speaking of Oyelowo, I don't think his or the film's omission hurt either of their Oscar chances. I'm guessing this is more of an instance where voters just didn't see the film in time.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year 
• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game 
• Emma Stone – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods 

Other Possibilities:

Coon, Gone Girl; Dern, Wild; Dickens, Gone Girl; Kendrick, Into the Woods; Russo, Nightcrawler; Stewart, Still Alice; Watts, Birdman

Whadd'ya know: Watts, St. Vincent

Should Be Considered:

LAFCA absolutely did the right thing handing Best Supporting Actress to Agata Kulesza for Ida, even though it probably would've been Arquette had they not categorized her as a Lead. Kulesza straddles the categorical line herself, but remains generous and understated throughout her characterization as not to overshadow her even more muted screen partner. The movie is now available on Netflix Instant, so you should definitely watch it.

-- This will be an easy get for Arquette and Stone. Streep is very likely, as usual. I love Jessica Chastain, but her placement here just seems so weirdly confounding, especially since she was only recently pushed to this category at the last second. Maybe it'll make more sense when I actually see the movie. Knightley's looking vulnerale-ish, but she should find a way in, since it's basically only these five names that are being talked about. My biggest hope: Kim Dickens in Gone Girl. My favorite performance from that film!

Outcome: 4/5. I guess I need to see St. Vincent now, too? Nothing about the film or Watts' role seem appealing to me, but I have heard a couple of defenses of her performance this morning. Must-see factor never registered a month ago, but it's still showing in one theater near me, so maybe I can work it in.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

• Edward Norton – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
• Christoph Waltz – Big Eyes
• Tom Wilkinson – Selma

Other Possibilities:

Brolin, Inherent Vice; Duvall, The Judge; Hawke, Boyhood; Perry, Gone Girl; Pine, Into the Woods

Should Be Considered:

Not that he will be considered in any capacity, but as it turns out Tom Hiddleston was charming our pants off long before we knew him as Loki in Joanna Hogg's brilliant and much-delayed debut feature, Unrelated. Shot while he was in his mid-20s, Hiddleston plays the listless but alluringly jovial Oakley, who gives the film's protagonist a good time, while convincing us of his concern for and reluctance to connect with her. Seek this out!

-- I truly hope I'm wrong about Ethan Hawke missing here, since, to me, he's hands-down the MVP of Boyhood. AND: I easily prefer him to Norton or Simmons. Waltz is again being campaigned in the Supporting category for a lead role, and with two spots up for grabs and an industry that loves him.... It's just a hunch. And I really hope I'm wrong.

Outcome: 3/5. Yay, Ethan Hawke! With Supporting Actor being as quiet as it is, this is probably a good sign for his Oscar chances. Norton, Ruffalo, and Simmons should get in easily, but that leaves one wide-open slot, which Duvall could easily take if campaigning for Wilkinson doesn't take off. I DO NOT want to see The Judge. Let's hope this is akin to Armie Hammer's nomination for J. Edgar.