2013 SAG Live Blog/Predictions

Starting a little late, so I'll provide my predictions of and reactions to the winners as they're announced.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Nyong'o, with Lawrence in a close second.

My Vote: Nyong'o.

Verdict: Nyong'o! She's genuinely touched and bewildered.

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Leto.

My Vote: Gandolfini, just ever-so-slightly over Abdi.

Verdict:  Leto. Dedicates the award to "the Rayon's of the world" and to the late James Gandolfini! It really is a special performance. Leto's speech is sweeter and much less itchily self-conscious of people's perception of him. If only just a tad recited.

Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Prediction: Going out on a limb with Fey. Maybe one last time?

My Vote: Louis-Dreyfuss, though a write-in for Poehler would be seriously considered.

Verdict: Louis-Dreyfuss! Confuses award with Golden Globe and Oscar. Girl, if only!

Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Prediction: Baldwin, for the same reasons as Fey.

My Vote: Baldwin, both for sentimental reasons and because I prefer him to the other nominees, except for Cheadle who the jury is still out on for me, in terms of the show. Though if Burrell and Modern Family were as strong as they used to be then you would expect to see him.

Verdict: Burrell, thanking "everyone who voted for him" and and co-stars. The cuts to the cast show a lot of proud smiles. Just wish I felt that connection with the show now.

Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Prediction: The Big Bang Theory, officially, but now I'm sure it'll be Modern Family?

My Vote: 30 Rock again for sentimental reasons.

Verdict: It's Modern Family. Vergara gives the speech and thanks everyone, including her boobs. She's handily the best amongst that ensemble.

Female Actor: TV Miniseries/Movie

Prediction: I wanna say Hunter, but I think Moss?

My Vote: Hunter, because I love her.

Verdict: Mirren. Praises Moss during speech. I'm watching this thing tomorrow.

Male Actor: TV Miniseries/Movie

Prediction: Douglas in a walk.

My Vote: I think Douglas? I can never decide who is better between he and Damon.

Verdict: Douglas! It's interesting to think how the Best Actor race would've been effected if it was released theatrically.

Female Actor in a Drama Series

Prediction: Washington, unless they're still riding the Danes wave.

My Vote: Washington, because I'm pretty sure I'm gonna love her show when I get around to watching it.

Verdict: Maggie Smith. I was never aware of people's love for this show.

Male Actor in a Drama Series

Prediction: Cranston, because he doesn't need to be cast as Lex Luthor to conquer the world.

My Vote: I think I'm liking what Spacey is doing on House of Cards from what I've seen, but I can't be quite confident since there's rarely anything to cure me of my allergy, outside of L. A. Confidential and parts of American Beauty.

Verdict: Cranston, which is surprising because people are usually so underwhelmed by him.

Ensemble in a Drama Series

Prediction: Breaking Bad.

My Vote: Anything but Boardwalk would be fine.

Verdict: Breaking Bad.

Male Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: McConaughey, which should just about seal everything up.

My Vote: McConaughey, but I like the nominees I've seen (which is everyone but Whitaker) about as much.

Verdict: McConaughey, accompanied by a totally gonzo speech that ties into his overarching message to "keep livin'". My mom said he would make a great minister. LOL

Female Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Blanchett will somehow emerge victorious, I believe.

My Vote: Without Adams in the lineup, Streep is easily preferable in my eyes.

Verdict: Blanchett, acing her speech yet again. "Matthew McConaughey can talk about Neptune, but I can't get five seconds?"

Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Prediction: Fingers crossed for 12 Years a Slave, but I ultimately see American Hustle taking it.

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave, but I don't think these movies necessarily benefit from their ensembles.

Verdict: American Hustle, which doesn't instill confidence in a steady win for 12 Years a Slave. But I actually think that's a good thing.

2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Updated w/ Actual Nominees!)

I promise that my head is not completely stuck in the awards gutter (nor am I personally attacking you or being willfully contrarian in predicting or not predicting anyone's favorite movie, actor, director, etc. lest anyone accuse me of that), but Oscar predictions are a wonderful pastime for me, and I simply love awards season. More specifically I love the nicer parts of award season where you're not an idiot for having less than kind things to say about, oh I don't know, The Wolf of Wall Street. My main point is this: this can be fun and rewarding if we're willing to engage with one another in mature and rational terms that don't end in smug, petty reinforcements of intellectual superiority. And also I will have some less than kind things to say about The Wolf of Wall Street during my commentary (there'll be nice things, too!), so if anyone reading is terribly offended then just remember that Martin Scorsese will probably find some way to cope.

That stuff isn't really important, though. All right: I think I've finally settled on these?

Best Picture
If there are five (in order of likelihood for the purpose of how they delve out their nominations now):

12 Years a Slave; Gravity; American Hustle; Captain Phillips; Nebraska

The rest (also in order of likelihood for the same reason):

The Wolf of Wall Street; Her; Dallas Buyers Club; Inside Llewyn Davis; Fruitvale Station

Alternates:
All is Lost; August: Osage County; Before Midnight; Blue Jasmine; Lee Daniels' The Butler; Philomena; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks

I'm thinking that the PGA-nominated of my predicted ten have the best shots. Unless we consider whether the academy is really gonna rally hard for The Wolf of Wall Steet, Her and/or Dallas Buyers Club, in which case Llewyn Davis could easily grab a safer spot in #6-8, if not the top 5. Wild card: I realize Fruitvale isn't the safest pick, but I'm thinking they could ultimately be affected by the story's immediacy. Plus, there's just something about those Sundance winners.

What Actually Happened: 8/9. Man, now I really need to find a way to see Philomena. It's partially my own fault for not seeing it yet, since the film just looks so unappealing to me. A great movie seems like too much to expect, but maybe Dench will animate it enough? I'm guessing it took the crowd-pleasing slot from Banks (which I also need to see). Not exactly sure why I decided to omit Banks from my predictions in the first place other than not being able to make room for it in place of those buoyant rays of sunshine, Llewyn Davis and Fruitvale, but I guess I'm happy for calling its "snub"? Unless, of course, I end up liking it after I see it this weekend.

Also, I guess from here on out we should just keep predicting nine nominees because every year I always think they might do six or seven or eight (or *gasp* maybe even five), but they have yet to break this tradition ever since they've switched to this system of voting. I'd be fine with going back to 10. I'd be even happier with five!

Best Director
Cuaron, Gravity; Greengrass, Captain Phillips; Jonze, Her;  McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Russell, American Hustle

Alternates:
Chandor, All is Lost; Coens, Inside Llewyn Davis; Coogler, Fruitvale Station;  Payne, Nebraska; Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street; Valle, Dallas Buyers Club

To predict Jonze over Scorsese is probably to make the presumption that the Academy will even connect that deeply with his usually offbeat style, but they often like him (and maybe also realize that Scorsese isn't totally on his game). It's good to take risks.

What Actually Happened: 3/5. The Payne crush continues! I haven't seen Her yet (also this weekend!) but on a fundamental level I was really rooting for Spike Jonze. And, honestly, I was really surprised he didn't make it with Greengrass out of the conversation. Wasn't crazy about what Scorsese was doing in Wolf, either, but I at least get what it is that they like about it, whereas Payne's images just get more and more banal to me. Only this time he slathers them with tacky banjo music rather than tacky ukulele music. Still, I'm madder about Scorsese I suppose.

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle; Dallas Buyers Club; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska

Alternates:
All is Lost; Blue Jasmine; Enough Said; Frances Ha; Fruitvale Station; Gravity; Mud; Saving Mr. Banks

I'm thinking Allen misses in both a crowded field and in a year where the talk is more around the star performance than his script. Remember when he missed for Vicky Cristina Barcelona? Speaking of '08: am I the only one crazy enough to think that Enough Said, Frances Ha, or Mud could pull off a nomination in the vein of Frozen River or In Bruges? That'd be exciting even though I don't care for Mud.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Not much worth getting excited about, that's for sure. There have been worse nominees than Blue Jasmine (and worse that have earned Woody a nomination before, which makes me think even more that I should have predicted him), but over Llewyn Davis? Again, happy for Jonze based purely on the fact that he's Spike Jonze.

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave; Before Midnight; Captain Phillips; Philomena; The Wolf of Wall Street

Alternates:
August: Osage County; The Bling Ring; Blue is the Warmest Color; Lone Survivor; The Secret Life of Walter Mitty; Short Term 12; The Spectacular Now

Not much to say other than that a Bling Ring nomination would be pretty great. If anyone's knocked out I assume it'll be Before Midnight?

What Actually Happened: 5/5. Wasn't crazy about Before Midnight a second time, but I'm happy for these guys!

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Adams, American Hustle; Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Bullock, Gravity; Dench, Philomena; Thompson; Saving Mr. Banks

Alternates:
Delpy, Before Midnight; Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color; Garcia, Gloria; Gerwig, Frances Ha; Larson, Short Term 12; Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said; Streep, August: Osage County

Yes, I'm going with Adams over Streep, but if they really want to shake things up with that fifth spot then Exarchopoulos, Delpy, Gerwig and Larson seem kind of plausible to me. I just wish it wasn't at Streep's expense this time. Why wasn't it this hard with The Iron Lady?

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Streep! I know there were so many first-timers that could have really benefited from that probable fifth slot, but I actually think she's genuinely fantastic in it. Which is surprising since she's usually just so dreadful! Also sad for Emma Thompson, even though I haven't seen Banks yet. I promise this weekend!

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Dern, Nebraska; DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Hanks, Captain Phillips; McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Alternates:
Bale, American Hustle; Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jackman, Prisoners; Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Phoenix, Her; Redford, All is Lost; Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

I'd love for Isaac to pull off a surprise, but DiCaprio's looking more likely. And....I think he would be a worthy contender, too! Maybe Hanks is out instead of Redford?

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Whoa! I like Christian Bale and everything, but I thought he was easily the weakest of Hustle's cast. Did we really have to waste Hanks on him?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Lawrence, American Hustle; Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Squibb, Nebraska

Alternates:
Diaz, Fruitvale Station; Johansson, Her; Paulson, 12 Years a Slave; Roberts, August: Osage County; Robie, The Wolf of Wall Street; Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color; Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Getting some serious "snub" vibes from this category. I'm not sure if Roberts is quite the done deal that people think she is, and Winfrey's losing a lot of steam, whereas Hawkins looks to have an easier shot at riding her co-stars coattails than Roberts, while Spencer could make it in if they really go for Fruitvale.

What Actually Happened: Called the Winfrey snub! So so so so so so so so so so happy for Hawkins, especially after missing for Happy-Go-Lucky. Adds a lot to that relationship with Blanchett. Sort of sad that the Spencer prediction didn't amount to much since Roberts' nomination is egregious category fraud.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Abdi, Captain Phillips; Cooper, American Hustle; Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Gandolfini, Enough Said; Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Alternates:
Bruhl, Rush; Forte, Nebraska; Franco, Spring Breakers; Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks; Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; McConaughey, Mud; Renner, American Hustle

Along with Gandolfini, I also think Hanks has a shot, despite moribund buzz.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Well, what happened was this: the Academy actually felt the need to recognize Hill a second time for smugly playing up every appalling and/or "shocking" aspect of his character, while missing the last chance to nominate James Gandolfini for finding a multitude of layers in his characters' tenderness and finding ways to humanize and complicate all of Albert's flaws and charms. This might be the nomination I'm most outraged by.

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2; Ernest & Celestine; Frozen; Monsters University; The Wind Rises

Alternates:
Full list of eligible contenders. The Croods probably has the best chance at dethroning one of these, I think. Or maybe something like A Letter to Momo?

What Actually Happened: 4/5. The Croods made it in as I thought it very well could've, but over Pixar no less? Do I need to watch this?

Best Documentary
20 Feet From Stardom; The Act of Killing; Blackfish; Life According to Sam; Stories We Tell

Alternates:
Cutie and the Boxer; God Loves Uganda; The Square.... and Dirty Wars! Full list of eligible contenders.

Eagerly crossing my fingers for The Act of Killing and Stories We Tell. I really want to see God Loves Uganda, which seems like a terrific companion piece to Call Me Kuchu for obvious reasons.

What Actually Happened: 2/5. Ouch!

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown; The Great Beauty; The Hunt; Omar; Two Lives

Alternates:
A Day in the Life of an Iron Picker; The Grandmaster; The Missing Picture; The Notebook

The Grandmaster might make it. Of the finalists on the shortlist I'm anticipating The Missing Picture the most. Liked The Great Beauty, but don't really get the love behind The Broken Circle Breakdown beyond its female lead. And the tattoos, of course!

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Happy for The Missing Picture, based solely on the fact that I'm interested in seeing it.

Best Cinematography
12 Years a Slave; All is Lost; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis; Prisoners

Alternates:
American Hustle; Captain Phillips; The Grandmaster; The Great Gatsby; Her; Nebraska; To the Wonder; The Wolf of Wall Street

I'm thinking they really go for All is Lost in the technical categories, but maybe they'll be enticed by The Grandmaster? To the Wonder would be pretty great on a personal note.

What Actually Happened: 3/5. "What to choose? 12 Years a Slave was impressively lit and emotionally enveloping, but Nebraska was shot in B&W so obviously...."

Best Costume Design
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; The Great Gatsby; The Invisible Woman; Lee Daniels' The Butler

Alternates:
Dallas Buyers Club; The Grandmaster; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; Inside Llewyn Davis; Rush; Saving Mr. Banks; The Wolf of Wall Street'

Really pulling for an Inside Llewyn Davis nomination. Hustle and Gatsby are my favorites amongst my predictions.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Good day for The Grandmaster and it didn't even make the Foreign Language lineup!

Best Film Editing
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Captain Phillips; Gravity; The Wolf of Wall Street

Alternates:
All is Lost; Dallas Buyers Club; Fruitvale Station; Lee Daniels' The Butler; Nebraska; Philomena; Prisoners; Rush

I'm not ready for this Wolf of Wall Street nomination. I understand that it was a little more challenging for Thelma Schoonmaker to shape the footage in any sort of cohesive way, considering all of those uninspired shots and self-serving improvisations. All of that aside though, I've been so puzzled by the passes the film's received for how utterly flabby and repetitive its representation is. I know this isn't the most original criticism in the world and that it's reductive by it's very principle, but I felt every second of that three-hour running time and I was pretty much feeling the listlessness by the 28th coke-fueled orgy. Other than Wolf, I would probably be fine with these nominees, give or take American Hustle, which has similar pacing issues, but emerged with far more interesting results, I thought.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. A blessing: The Wolf of Wall Street wasn't nominated! An inquiry: Just how close was Valle to making that Director lineup I wonder. Nebraska not showing up here isn't all too surprising, but the Payne nomination and this much support for Dallas Buyers Club is making me wonder.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
American Hustle; Dallas Buyers Club; Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Alternates:
The Great Gatsby; Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; The Lone Ranger

The comb over aside, Adams's curls deserve their own honorary Oscar. I'm fully expecting to at least be wrong about Dallas Buyers Club. I'm terrible with this category.

What Actually Happened: 2/3. Ooh, no Hustle. Not gonna lie, I was kind of expecting that one to walk away with the whole thing. Or maybe I'm just projecting my own bewitched feelings towards Adams' hairdo.

Best Original Score
12 Years a Slave; The Book Thief; Gravity; Philomena; Saving Mr. Banks

Alternates:
All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Her; The Invisible Woman; Man of Steel; Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Oz the Great and Powerful; Prisoners; Rush

It might be strange that I'm going with Banks and The Book Thief over All is Lost and Her since the former I'm not quite as confident about and the latter was basically laughed out of existence, where All is Lost and Her, have much more support and genuine love behind them in terms of their scores. But I'm thinking they won't be able to resist Williams or Newman.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. The best thing about not being a strict Oscar completist is that I am never going to see The Book Thief, and by extension also sparing myself of what I can only assume is another phone-in from Williams.

Best Original Song
"Let it Go" from Frozen; "Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby; "The Moon Song" from Her; "In the Middle of the Night" from Lee Daniels' The Butler; "So You Know What it's Like" from Short Term 12

Alternates:
I just can not with this category. Here's the full list of eligible contenders. (Nominees: Alone Yet Not Alone, Despicable Me 2, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

What Actually Happened: 2/5. Not  sure I even want to know what Alone Yet Not Alone is. Sort of thought the Mandela song was just gonna be a Globe thing.

Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave; The Great Gatsby; Her; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Saving Mr. Banks

Alternates:
American Hustle; The Grandmaster; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis; Lee Daniels' The Butler; The Lone Ranger; Oz the Great and Powerful; The Wolf of Wall Street

Note: Gravity is at #6 in my predictions. I just don't feel confident that they'll go quite so.... minimalist. I don't mean minimal so much in terms of scope, obviously, but in terms of abundance or variations on a handful of sets. It's really good work, though, and I'll simply be thrilled if it makes it.

What Actually Happened: 3/5. Continuing my trumpeting of the yet-to-be-seen-by-me Her because it's just so refreshing to see a film and set design of this ilk make it in this category.

Best Sound Editing
All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Iron Man 3; Rush

Alternates:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Man of Steel; Star Trek Into Darkness; World War Z

What Actually Happened: 3/5. Iron Men are usually so prominent in this category. You'd think with all of those best of the trilogy claims it'd at least get a little more than Visual Effects. I will probably see Lone Survivor eventually.

Best Sound Mixing
12 Years a Slave; All is Lost; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Inside Llewyn Davis

Alternates:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3; The Lone Ranger; Lone Survivor; Man of Steel; Pacific Rim; Rush; The Wolf of Wall Street; World War Z

What Actually Happened: 3/5. The Hobbit and Lone Survivor fuck me again! Hooray Inside Llewyn Davis!

Best Visual Effects
Gravity; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3; Pacific Rim; Star Trek Into Darkness

Alternates:
Elysium; The Lone Ranger; Oblivion; Thor: The Dark World; World War Z

I know, I know, Gravity is a pretty big gambit here, but I just have a feeling for these things. I'd be happy if World War Z were to show up.

What Actually Happened: 4/5. Honestly not that surprised by Pacific Rim missing out, but I was thinking Elysium would take its spot instead of Lone Ranger.

Golden Globe Predictions (Updated w/ Winners!)

Welcome to the new season of the blog! Pretty busy today (of all days!) to go too in-depth, but I promise that this will only be the start of what I'm hoping to be a better year for this blog than what became of it last year. And I couldn't think of a better day to kick the new season off since tonight is my third favorite holiday of the year.

Best Picture: Drama
12 Years a Slave; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Rush; Philomena

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave. Because even though the cultural significance and star power of Gravity does look as if it could result in a win akin to what Avatar pulled off (insofar as that it didn't leave much of an impact on the race, overall), I'm sort of feeling the 12 Years a Slave thing happening.

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. And why shouldn't it? Not to project my own feelings onto the race, but I thought McQueen's sobering and appropriately heightened evocation of Solomon's plight faces more challenging tasks than Gravity at soliciting sympathy from its audience. And something tells me the HFPA will feel similarly.

Verdict: It's 12 Years a Slave! Which makes me so happy, considering how the night was going.

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy
American Hustle; Her; Inside Llewyn Davis; Nebraska; The Wolf of Wall Street

Prediction: American Hustle. I'm guessing just ever-so-slightly over The Wolf of Wall Street, because people and voting bodies have really been responding to these seriously flawed movies about seriously flawed people.

My Vote: Inside Llewyn Davis. Because even if I am overselling it after only seeing it yesterday, it definitely leaves the other nominated films that I've seen in the dust.

Verdict: American Hustle. One of the producers made some comment pertaining to the plausibility of these characters, which is incredibly mystifying since the lack of plausibility, outside of Adams and Cooper, was partly what I found disenchanting about the movie.

Best Actress: Drama
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks; Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Prediction: Blanchett. Because I'm on a bit of a risk-taking streak as of late.

My Vote: Blanchett. But I haven't seen any of the other nominees except for Bullock, so I'm probably not the best judge. Pretty great performance, even though I'm not quite as over the moon for it as everyone else.

Verdict: Blanchett wins! Surely in a squeaker over Winslet, right?!

Best Actor: Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club; Robert Redford, All is Lost

Prediction: Ejiofor. But maybe it'll be McConaughey?

My Vote: McConaughey. Though, I'll also be ecstatic if Ejiofor wins.

Verdict: McConaughey! Am I the only one who thought this speech was not only muddled, but weirdly postured, too? Like: "I need to protect my image, so I'll skimp all of the ideological criticisms and distance myself from any form of LGBT-related concerns." Noticed it even more with Leto. I guess one could possibly chalk it up to McConaughey being McConaughey.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, American Hustle; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Prediction: Adams. Because the combination of coattail momentum and Streep fatigue are looking more and more in her favor.

My Vote: Adams. And let's not forget that it is a pretty great performance. She easily cuts the most plausible, bruising and wry work out of the tastily rafter-playing ensemble. Streep would be a close second for me. Then Louis-Dreyfuss. Then Gerwig. Then Delpy. Could we have asked for a better lineup?

Verdict: It's Adams! Easily the best speech of the night. A nomination on Thursday would be the greatest back-to-school present I can think of at the moment. Maybe if she knocks out Dench instead of Streep?

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Prediction: Dern. Because even if he doesn't have quite the star power his fellow nominees have, that campaign has really taken off in ways that's probably going to end in him "getting one already!" as per the narrative it's been shooting for.

My Vote: Isaac. Which is the one aspect of Llewyn Davis that I'm not worried that I've oversold.

Verdict: DiCaprio, who I actually like in The Wolf of Wall Street after being stuck in what I considered to be a pretty clear rut creatively (which includes Shutter Island and Django Unchained), and thought he was pretty sincere in his acceptance speech, but the movie as a whole has grown a little more irritating the further I get away from it, despite solid individual scenes. As for Oscar prospects, it's looking like a stronger possibility the closer we get to nominations, but it's just such a mystery to me as to where they're going to lean in this category which has a multitude of strong (and even worthy!) contenders. I'd be happier if the surprise was Isaac, but DiCaprio's fine too.

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts, August: Osage County; June Squibb, Nebraska

Prediction: Nyong'o. But if they go with Jennifer "Thank God for me" Lawrence then I wouldn't be surprised.

My Vote: Nyong'o. But if I'm partial to Julia "Eat the fish, bitch" Roberts on principle then don't be surprised.

Verdict: Lawrence. I'm cool on the performance at most (though I at least think it's better than what Squibb is doing), but I'm really not looking forward to the vicious backlash waiting for her if she wins a second Oscar. Especially since we're both Louisville natives.

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Daniel Bruhl, Rush; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Prediction: Leto. Because the universal acclaim, momentum, deglam and already-easy level of sympathy  for the character are aligning in his favor.

My Vote: Abdi. Because even though I consider it a lead performance, I still couldn't be happier that he's nominated for such polished, expressive work for a debut.

Verdict: Leto, greeting us with discomfitingly bro-y "Brazillian wax" jokes that ring so false to the sensitive work he's accepting the award for and as a shameless tactic to not be associated with anything "gay". Maybe the next few times will be the charm?

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron; Paul Greengrass; Steve McQueen; Russell; Payne

Prediction: Cuaron. Because if they want to reward Gravity anywhere it'll be here.

My Vote: McQueen. For keeping the harsh, unrelenting truths of history rightly out in the open, even when he gets in his own way occasionally.

Verdict: Cuaron! The various clips of Gravity I saw tonight reminded me even more of what great work he's doing. Thinking he's probably our frontrunner, whether it translates into Best Picture or not.

Best Screenplay
12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Her; Nebraska; Philomena

Prediction: American Hustle. Though I could easily see 12 Years a Slave

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. Because it should be obvious at this point.

Verdict: Her, which I'm so excited to see and am simply thrilled for Spike Jonze on principle. Such a sweetheart! And I probably won't tire of looking at him this season.

Best Animated Film
The Croods; Despicable Me 2; Frozen

Prediction: Frozen. Because I honestly can't imagine anyone saying: "Yeah, Frozen was pretty cute, but OMG Despicable Me 2!"

My Vote: Frozen. Because it's the only one I've seen, and the only one I will see.

Verdict: Girl, you know it's Frozen.

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color; The Great Beauty; The Hunt; The Past; The Wind Rises

Prediction: Blue is the Warmest Color. Or maybe The Hunt?

My Vote: The Great Beauty. Because even in its clunkiest embellishments I still found the whole to be riskier and more potent than the only other nominee that I have seen (The Past). I must see Blue is the Warmest Color, which played the Belcourt at the worst possible time for me.

Verdict: The Great Beauty, which surprises me honestly, since it's the most challenging of the nominees and doesn't have quite the hooks that The Hunt or Blue is the Warmest Color have. Maybe The Great Beauty has more support than I initially thought?

Best Orginal Score

Prediction: Gravity. Because people don't seem to think it gets in the way of much of Cuaron's technical ambition.

My Vote: 12 Years a Slave. Because I'm not huge on any of the others, and even if it does take a lot of its notes from prior Zimmer scores, it's still incredibly affecting

Verdict: All is Lost, which never really rang quite as prepossessing for me as the technical engineering. It had a few nice touches from what I can remember, though.

Best Original Song

Prediction: Frozen for "Let it Go". But who knows with this category.

My Vote: "Please Mr. Kennedy", if only for Adam Driver's "Outer. Space."

Verdict: On second thought, this category maybe wasn't as up-in-the-air as I initially claimed because of course they would give it to Bono (for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom). Reader, I saw Mandela on Wednesday, and I bolted as the credits were beginning, because it was pretty heinous and nowhere close to making any sort of dramatic connection out of its two and a half hour running time. And along with being a totally limp account of Nelson's ideological significance on an entire culture, it gives the short end of the stick to Winnie as well, skirting all complexities of her political involvement that it brings up in the last act, reducing her arch to vagina-phobic visual motifs. Did we really need that shot of her hopelessly sitting alone in a bed???? Pretty embarrassing. But my main point is: I didn't even listen to the song. Is it better than the film, at least?