2014 SAG Predictions: Their Choices and Mine

The Screen Actors Guild will broadcast their annual ceremony in just a few short hours, so naturally my mind is on the acting race, despite last night's big PGA surprise that has miraculously transitioned the wide-open Best Picture field to a two-or-three-film open and shut case. As always, I plan to watch, but not have as much fun as I do with the perpetual intoxication of the Golden Globes. What can I say?

But that doesn't mean I won't take a stab at predictions, especially since tonight could potentially clear up or complicate the acting categories. So:

Female Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Julianne Moore.

But: Wouldn't it be hilarious/brilliant if Jennifer Aniston won?

Male Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction: Michael Keaton.

But: People love Eddie Redmayne in his movie.

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: Patricia Arquette.

But: ....I've got nothing. Who could beat her? Who wouldn't want to see her give another acceptance speech written on and then torn from a spiral notebook, while still vibrating with more class than anyone this season?

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction: J.K. Simmons.

But: Maybe one voting body is finally ready to recognize Ethan Hawke??? (Unlikely, but I can dream!)

Ensemble Cast

Prediction: Birdman.

But: Boyhood still exists.

And as a bonus, I'm kicking off my own superlatives with my picks for Best Ensemble Cast, to continue the theme of acting awards. As you can tell by the image to the left, I included Birdman in my lineup like SAG did, and easily think it's the best of their lineup. My only hope is that they don't make the same embarrassing snafu that the BFCA made when it won for its ensemble category. Especially embarrassing since Andrea Riseborough is one of the film's unsung heroes.

The nominees are... (after the jump)

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Update (1/13/15): All predictions have been posted and finalized, with the exception of the Short Film categories, which I never predict.

Update (1/15/15): Updated with reactions to the actual nominees. I did much better than I expected to, ultimately, but to witness the continuance of the Academy's longstanding tradition of caring solely about white, male artists who make movies about white, male people has been more unfortunate than being wrong about any of my predictions.

Best Picture

Ranking these in order of likelihood, since we don't know how many nominees there will be.

1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

5. Selma
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Gone Girl

8. Foxcatcher

If there are 10:

9. Whiplash

10. American Sniper

Alternates: Interstellar; Into the Woods; Mr. Turner; Nightcrawler; Unbroken; 

-- I don't think Foxcatcher is as dead as some people think. Potential surprise in Director?

Outcome: 6/8. Well, at least I was on to something about Best Director, and the movie not being dead in general. At least Selma was nominated here, but still very disheartening. I'm not surprised by Whiplash getting in over Gone Girl, but am about American Sniper catching on as fast as it did.

Best Director: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Ava DuVernay, Selma; Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman; Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Alternates: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash; Clint Eastwood; American Sniper; David Fincher; Gone Girl; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

-- I haven't seen The Imitation Game yet, but the probable Tyldum nomination even seems unnecessary to me. Glad there's room for Anderson, but hope he isn't kicked out by Chazelle or Eastwood. I'm even more fearful of this happening to DuVernay.

Outcome: 4/5. Sort of cool to see the lone director slot back, but where is DuVernay?! Depressingly typical of voters' boy's club mentality when it comes to this category. What would've been even more depressing is if it were Chazelle or Eastwood to take her place.

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Sniper; Gone Girl; The Imitation Game; The Theory of Everything; Whiplash

Alternates: Inherent Vice; Still Alice; Wild

-- I'm a little more skeptical about Whiplash showing up than most are, and wonder how the last-minute categorization loop will really effect it, but it clearly has fans and enough potential coattail momentum via Simmons that it shouldn't be counted out. American Sniper seems safe here, considering the scarcity of contenders.

Outcome: 4/5. Interesting that between the two non-biographical adaptations of novels which both have potentially risky barriers to overcome in adapting their source material to film, it was P.T.A.'s hazy, hallucinogenic trip that triumphed over Gillian Flynn's tamer, calculating Gone Girl. Perhaps even more interesting is that it took her omission for both screenplay categories to contain all-male nominees. Just something to think about.

Best Original Screenplay: Birdman; Boyhood; The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mr. Turner; Selma

Alternates: Foxcatcher; Ida; A Most Violent Year; Nightcrawler; St. Vincent

-- The folks in the screenwriting branch clearly love Mike Leigh, though he does have a little more competition than usual this year. Selma might have arrived a little too late, but I think it piqued at just the right time for them to fully embrace it. Ida could be this year's A Separation.

Outcome: 3/5. Weird assumptions people have been making all morning: 1. The academy is in hate with Gyllenhaal and Nightcrawler, due to their purposeful "snubs"; 2. The quality of both is something that should be inherently recognized and evident to everyone; 3. A lone Screenplay nomination isn't something to be proud of, especially when its a movie that's this vexed and provoking.

Best Actress: Jennifer Aniston, Cake; Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Alternates: Amy Adams, Big Eyes; Emily Blunt, Into the Woods; Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Hilary Swank, The Homesman

-- Weirdly, I find Jones and Witherspoon more vulnerable than Aniston at this point. But: Cotillard never thrives at nomination-time (especially when she's fantastic in two movies); Adams has the opposite problem that Cotillard has, but has hardly been the steamroller that we thought she would be this season; and Blunt will have to rely solely on the coattails of Into the Woods if they happen to go crazy for it, but even so, it isn't the type of performance that screams to be nominated. So, in other words, they're probably safe.

Outcome: 4/5. I love Aniston in general, and am really looking forward to seeing Cake, but today's biggest silver lining has to be Marion Cotillard showing up here. My ideal nomination would've been for The Immigrant, but it's still great to see her nominated for equally outstanding work.

Best Actor: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton, Birdman; David Oyelowo, Selma; Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Alternates: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper; Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler; Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

-- Some might consider it unreasonable of me to predict Carell over Gyllenhaal, but there it is. I'm unreasonable. Hoping Fiennes replaces....Cumberbatch? Not getting my hopes up, though. (Also, no, I'm not even hearing the foolishness of them passing over Oyelowo!)

Outcome: 4/5. And with Cotillard's silver lining comes the most crushing omission of all. I'm certain Cooper and Cumberbatch both do fine jobs (especially Cooper; mostly just trying to be nice about Cumberbatch, since that movie looks so undesirable), but Oyelowo is so special in Selma, and an Oscar nomination would've only advanced his already-impressive career. Meanwhile Cooper would have to settle with his two consecutive Oscar nominations while Cumberbatch deals with the various franchises he's already attached to and the near-rabid fanbase he's had since Sherlock.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game; Rene Russo, Nightcrawler; Emma Stone, Birdman; Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Alternates: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Laura Dern, Wild; Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

-- Replaced Russo with Chastain, but maybe it could be Streep? I'm not even crazy about Swinton in Snowpiercer, but that would be something.

Outcome: 4/5. Ooh Laura Dern's here! Hi, Laura Dern! If there's one Nightcrawler "snub" I feel sad about, it's Russo. But still: good for Dern.

Best Suporting Actor: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood; Edward Norton, Birdman; Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Alternates: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Robert Duvall, The Judge; Chris Pine, Into the Woods; Tom Wilkinson, Selma

-- Dear Academy, 

Please DON'T commit category fraud with Carell. Even if it does mean you that you won't have to vote for Duvall. Just go with Brolin or Wilkinson, we'll be fine. Also: ignore the naysayers who claim that Hawke is just playing himself. This category needs more generous performers like him that actually support their ensemble.

Outcome: 4/5. Well, I guess I have to watch The Judge now. 

Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6; How to Train Your Dragon 2; The LEGO Movie; Song of the Sea; The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Alternates: The Book of Life; The Boxtrolls

-- Weirdly uninvested in this category this year. Can't even muster enthusiasm to watch How to Train Your Dragon 2. Loved the first one, it's been out on DVD for months, but nothing will do. Just vote for Big Hero 6 and I'll be happy.

Outcome: 4/5. Missed my chance to see The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, but it will be on DVD soon, as will The Boxtrolls, which I also didn't see. So weird about The LEGO Movie.

Best Documentary: Citizenfour; Last Days in Vietnam; Life Itself; The Overnighters; Virunga

Alternates: The Case Against 8; Finding Vivian Maier; Keep on Keepin' On; The Kill Team ....and The Salt of the Earth!

-- Wish National Gallery could be here, but not the least bit surprised it didn't make the finalists list.

Outcome: 3/5. Feeling a little sad for Steve James, who seemingly can't catch a break in this category, but I'm glad for Citizenfour, not that there was ever any doubt it would be nominated.

Best Foreign Language Film: Force Majeure (Sweden); Ida (Poland); Leviathan (Russia); The Liberator (Venezuela); Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alternates: Accused (The Netherlands); Corn Island (Georgia); Tangerines (Estonia); Timbuktu (Mauritania)

-- Ida is a clear lock. Force Majeure and Wild Tales shouldn't have trouble. Could easily see Tangerines and Timbuktu replacing Leviathan and The Liberator.

Outcome: 3/5. Only miffed that Force Majeure missed because it was the only one I had seen aside from Ida. So excited about Timbuktu. If anyone gets a chance they should watch Abderrahmane Sissako's last feature, Bamako. Here I'll help.

Best Cinematography: Birdman; The Grand Budapest Hotel; Ida; Interstellar; Mr. Turner

Alternates: The Homesman; A Most Violent Year; Selma; Unbroken

-- Rare of them to "snub" Deakins, but I'm feeling Unbroken only shows up in Sound. If that.

Outcome: 4/5. Hooray for Ida! I haven't seen Unbroken yet, but I definitely don't want them to give Deakins "his due" if that means Birdman loses.

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel; Into the Woods; Maleficent; Mr. Turner; Selma

Alternates: Big Eyes; Exodus: Gods and Kings; The Imitation Game; The Theory of Everything ....and Inherent Vice!

-- Fingers crossed they finally recognize an Anderson film in this category! The rest seem pretty standard for this branch, no?

Outcome: 4/5. I got not one Anderson film, but two! Really didn't see Inherent Vice coming.

Best Film Editing: Boyhood; Gone Girl; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Selma

Alternates: Birdman; Nightcrawler; The Theory of Everything; Whiplash ....and American Sniper

-- I can see voters thinking: "But there were only, like, ten cuts in the whole movie," re: Birdman, so more Budapest love.

Outcome: 3/5. Strange. Fincher's movies usually show up here. Oh well. Do we think Whiplash would've made a top five?

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Foxcatcher; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Theory of Everything

Alternates: The Amazing Spider-Man 2; Guardians of the Galaxy; Maleficent; Noah

-- Terrible at predicting this category. Just terrible.

Outcome: 2/3. Did much better than usual! Surprised they didn't take the Redmayne-transformation hook that the studio was pushing, but I see why they would go for Guardians, instead.

Best Original Score: Gone Girl; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Interstellar; The Theory of Everything

Alternates: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; The Homesman; Unbroken ....and Mr. Turner!

-- Globe nods. Minus Birdman, plus Budapest, I think.

Outcome: 4/5. God, I can't wait to see Mr. Turner. One of my favorite elements of Gone Girl was its score, so it's a shame it wasn't nominated. Thrilled for Budapest and Interstellar!

Best Original Song: Begin Again, "Lost Stars"; Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me, "Not Going to Miss You"; The LEGO Movie, "Everything is Awesome"; Muppets Most Wanted, "Something So Right"; Selma, "Glory"

Alternates: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, "The Last Goodbye"; Muppets Most Wanted, "I'll Get You What You Want"; Noah, "Mercy Is" ....and Beyond the Lights!

-- I'm leaving out "Big Eyes", because that song is poisonous and corrodes everything in its path. Hopefully the Academy doesn't take a note from the HFPA and nominates Begin Again, instead.

Outcome: 4/5. Even without my favorite Muppets Most Wanted song in the lineup, this is still one of the best batches of nominees this category has had in a long time. Love the Beyond the Lights song, and I'm obviously over the moon for "Lost Stars".

Best Production Design: Birdman; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Interstellar; Into the Woods

Alternates: Exodus: Gods and Kings; The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; Maleficent; Mr. Turner; Noah; Snowpiercer

-- They love fantasy-tinged, CGI-enhanced forests in this category, so perhaps I shouldn't underestimate Maleficent. If they actually watched Snowpiercer, then I could totally see it win a nomination. Again, they seem to never go for Anderson in this category, but Budapest is really catching on, it seems.

Outcome: 4/5. Hm. Not much of a surprise for Birdman to miss here, but that would've been pretty neat.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper; Birdman; Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Fury; Transformers: Age of Extinction

Alternates: Godzilla; Gone Girl; Guardians of the Galaxy; Interstellar; Unbroken ....and The Hobbit

-- Hard to gauge how enthusiastic people are over American Sniper right now, but I can see it showing up here, at the very least.

Outcome: 2/5. Wow, they finally ignored a Transformers movie in this category! Almost made it one year without a Hobbit movie!

Best Sound Mixing: Birdman; Fury; The Grand Budapest Hotel; Guardians of the Galaxy; Into the Woods

Alternates: American Sniper; Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Gone Girl; Interstellar; Transformers: Age of Extinction; Unbroken ....and Whiplash

-- Probably going to regret putting Budapest here, but there it is. Great work; plus they also like Best Picture nominees in this category. I could see them doing Imitation Game, though.

Outcome: 2/5. Odd that they didn't go for Fury in either of these categories. I was actually beginning to think it might actually win one of them. I'm sure going with Budapest here will be the biggest laugh I get, give or take predicting Josh Brolin in Sup. Actor, but at least I tried to be unique!

Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Godzilla; Guardians of the Galaxy; Interstellar; Maleficent

Alternates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier; The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies; Night at the Museum: The Secret of the Tomb; Transformers: Age of Extinction; X-Men: Days of Future Past

-- Just realized all of my Alternates have colons in their titles. Perhaps its unwise to go against any of these?

Outcome: 3/5. No Godzilla?!

2014 Globe Winner Predictions

It's been a month since my last post, and they were my prediction for the actual nominees, which I did decently well on. Likely won't have half the luck tonight, but here's what I think will win.

Best Picture: Drama

Prediction: I know some are predicting an upset in which the tides turn for Boyhood's "consensus" frontrunner status, but if that happens anywhere it'll be with PGA or DGA a la The Social Network and The King's Speech.

My Vote: Selma by a mile, though I quite like all of the nominees, barring The Imitation Game, which I haven't seen yet.

Best Picture: Musical or Comedy

Prediction: I could actually see The Grand Budapest Hotel surprising, though I'm gonna go with Birdman just to be on the safe side.

My Vote: Pride, if you can believe it. I just love movies about "London-based activists" who shake things up with all their magical, activist-like qualities and things.

Best Director

Prediction: I think Richard Linklater takes it regardless of potential surprises.

My Vote: Ava DuVernay, but everyone, give or take Fincher, excites me in this category.

Best Actress: Drama

Prediction: I'm guessing this is where Moore officially begins her Crazy Heart-like march to her first Oscar. And if there's anyone out there who deserves it it's her.

My Vote: Still Alice and Cake have only had one-week qualifying runs (a.k.a. the bane of my existence) and still haven't shown their faces to the public. So with that being said, I guess I'm a Reese Witherspoon voter, less for satisfying the larger emotions of the script than for how moving and alert she is to the reticence of Cheryl's internal journey.

Best Actress: Musical or Comedy

Prediction: I think Julianne Moore might just Winslet her way to two Globes in one night. It's not like they'll never have another opportunity to give Emily Blunt her second Globe.

My Vote: I'm dying to see Moore in Maps to the Stars, but since we have to wait a while on that, then I think Blunt would be my choice.

Best Actor: Drama

Prediction: Eddie Redmayne, who also seems like a threat to win the Oscar. Steve Carell or David Oyelowo would be nice surprises

My Vote: Oyelowo in a squeaker over Carell. Carell has more interesting barriers to overcome in evoking character from his director's occasionally overbearing atmosphere and the bizarre eccentricities written into his character, but Oyelowo constructs a whole interior life from MLK's legendary figure, while remaining generous to each peripheral character's stories. Remarkable achievement.

Best Actor: Musical or Comedy

Prediction: Michael Keaton.

My Vote: Keaton, because he's rangy and terrific in a daunting, hubristic, tonally complex part, while showing surprising adeptness working within a colorful ensemble of characters.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Patricia Arquette, because I'm feeling particularly dangerous today.

My Vote: Emma Stone, though I like Arquette very much and thought Meryl Streep had her moments in Into the Woods. Still need to see  The Imitation Game and A Most Violent Year.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: J.K. Simmons, because do I need to even explain at this point?

My Vote: Ethan Hawke, who not only emerges as the best of the four other nominees, but the best thing about Boyhood in general. Where some people see his performance as essentially "playing himself," I see it as a wise, unshowy approach that is key to delving into Mason Sr.'s dubious affability, working off of his own star persona in smarter and more revealing ways than Norton or Simmons do.

Best Screenplay

Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel, which would be its sole win of the night. Seems right.

My Vote: Probably Budapest, but Birdman and Boyhood both impress in this field.

Best Original Score

Prediction: The Theory of Everything, but I could see a Birdman win.

My Vote: Interstellar, but I generally like all of these scores, except for The Imitation Game, which I'm not very familiar with. Birdman's my second choice.

Best Original Song

Prediction: "Glory"

My Vote: Anything but "Big Eyes"!

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: The LEGO Movie

My Vote: I've only seen 40% of the nominees, but I like Big Hero 6 a lot.

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: Ida

My Vote: I've only seen Ida and Force Majeure, and I easily prefer the former to the latter. Excited to see the other nominees, especially Leviathan.