"Amour"
"Argo"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Will Win: While Ben Affleck's "snub" might hint at a rare occurrence in which the Academy could go against the proverbial grain in terms of Argo's frontrunner status, momentum and sheer admiration for his film is hard to deny. Heck, if anything, his failure to secure a Best Director nomination seems to have boosted his film's chances more than anything. In a near sweep of a precursor race, Argo's success (and the "Poor Ben" supporters that has extended from Hollywood to my Media Writing professor) has shown that Ben Affleck's fanbase will want to ensure that he and his film don't go unrecognized. Because God knows if there was a film that went more unfairly overlooked this year than Argo, I wouldn't know where to find it....
Should Win: ....unless you mean Amour! This immaculately orchestrated and unflinchingly performed duet of a couple at the end of their life was looking at a fairly rough road in regards to its likelihood of receiving a Best Picture nomination (I myself didn't have the guts to predict it) as more and more contenders broke through the mid-to-late December gate and took up many of it's precursor slots (even Best Actress) and passionate ralliers (we have seen and expect better from Tarantino than Django, no?). So going from expecting Silver Linings Playbook to be your personal favorite of the nominees (I hadn't seen Zero Dark Thirty at the time, just to clarify) to this? Oh my lord, yes! Everything from it's flawless staging, masterful editing, and it's keen, smartly-played performances (all of which I hope to talk about more when I show you guys my own ballot) puts Amour leagues above it's fellow nominees.
Best Director
Michael Haneke for "Amour"
Ang Lee for "Life of Pi"
David O. Russell for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Steven Spielberg for "Lincoln"
Benh Zeitlin for "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Will Win: Without Ben Affleck here we just might have the fourth Best Picture winner in history to not receive a Best Director nomination (so surprising because Ben Affleck can do no wrong). But of course that does nothing to help us decrypt the mystery behind this category. I'm tempted to say that the only certainty to be found here is that the youngest nominee of the bunch Benh Zeitlin probably stands as the least likely of the nominees, but in a year like this even a longshot like him shouldn't be counted out. The fact that he was nominated alone is a cause to suspect he has fans. Yet, even with this race's frontrunner conundrum, there's still a safe haven to be found in the Spielberg-Lee two-horse race theory. Of the two I think I'm going with Ang Lee in a squeaker over Spielberg, because as much as they liked Lincoln I think they'll be more tempted be Lee's technical virtuosity and ability to adapt the "unadaptable."
Should Win: As enamored as I was by Lee's sweeping use of scale and concentrated epicness, and Zeitlin's lyrical, magical and visually singular creation, I must single out Michael Haneke again for crafting such a universal tale of love and death (one that particularly stuck with me after losing my grandmother two months ago). If Haneke's last effort, The White Ribbon, was too clinical of an exploration of his usual ideas for some (myself included, sadly), Amour shows us a deeply personal side of himself in which he executes with uncompromising formal precision.
Best Original Screenplay
"Amour"
"Django Unchained"
"Flight"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Will Win: Like Best Director, this category also suffers from a lack of a frontrunner, but I'm less inclined to believe how up in the air the category is, since I'm pretty sure Amour has plenty of members rallying for it. Though Django and Zero Dark Thirty are a cause for concern, they lack the one factor that Amour has: a Best Director nomination. If you asked me pre-nominations I would totally agree that Mark Boal had the best shot, but despite it's Best Picture nomination, the love for Zero Dark Thirty (and moreso in regards to Django) just isn't there, and if there's one place Amour will win outside of Best Foreign Language Film, it's here. To those who think foreign films have trouble securing a win, may I point you to Talk to Her? Seriously, may I? It's so good.
Should Win: Ah, but of course. The one category in which my vote wouldn't go to Amour, is also the one in which I predicted it to win. Yes, me and my contrarian ways would personally love to see Moonrise Kingdom walk away with an Original Screenplay win (though only by the skin of its teeth). Because Wes Anderson, in all of his dioramic warmth, continues to stretch beyond his stifling limitations (a trend started with the wonderful Fantastic Mr. Fox), allowing for adventure, genuinely felt heartbreak and his unique eye for humor to flow through his characters and affectations.
Best Adapted Screenplay
"Argo"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
Will Win: My instinct is to go with Lincoln for such a beloved and, admittedly, fresh look at the bravest, most eloquent (those monologues!) and most influential American President of all time (even though it didn't fully jive with me, personally it does, in it's best moments, breathe invigorating life into the Historical Drama genre), but I think I'm going to go with Argo on this one, due to it's frontrunner status.
Should Win: Four fine scripts. Not one of them gives me any major problems, while at the same time not really engaging me in any of the other "things" that might be going on in their film (each script leaning heavily on their actors or directors to help me feel as if I was, which works best for Playbook and Pi, respectively). The nominee that doesn't meet that criteria is the blissfuly alive, and constantly blooming with imagination and ideas, Beasts of the Southern Wild. And nothing would make me happier if it did pull off a win. (Which is not as far-fetched as it sounds. Consollation prize?)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain for "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emanuelle Riva for "Amour"
Naomi Watts for "The Impossible"
Quvenzhane Wallis for "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Will/Should Win: *Deep breath* I am sticking with my guns and going with Emanuelle Riva. What, you've never seen an Oscar prognosticator let personal preference sway him or her in their predictions? But really it's not entirely because I'm blinded by enthusiasm that my favorite performance of the year got in (though, it might've helped a little). It's just that her film seems genuinely loved (Trintignant was probably stuck in the dreadful 6th or 7th slot), and I think people will want to see Riva honored after giving a career-best performance in an already stellar filmography.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis for "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman for "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix for "The Master"
Denzel Washington for "Flight"
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. You heard me.
Should Win: Really, this is a pretty nifty lineup. Bradley Cooper is the key to Silver Linings Playbook's success in a tonally and tastefully tricky part, Daniel Day-Lewis gives a quietly delicate spin on the 16th U.S. President,while smartly underplaying all of Lincoln's mannerisms and all of Lincoln's "showy" scences with lived-in nuance, Denzel Washington actually manages to feel flexible and intimidatingly carnal in ways that probably don't work as well on paper in Flight (his best in years), and even Hugh Jackman in his tastelessly manipulative film manages to give Les Miserables it's most raw feeling of emotion and grandeur that was promised from it's source material. But for my money, Joaquin Phoenix's unpredictable whirlwind of caged inner-turmoil in The Master would be most deserving in this more than commendable lineup.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for "The Master"
Sally Field for "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway for "Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt for "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Will Win: There's no denying it at this point. Anne Hathaway will be an Oscar-winner by the end of the night. We got that?
Should Win: But, come on guys. Are we all seriously unallowed to, not even dislike, but have a few minor quibbles about her performance. Yes, even in the "I Dreamed a Dream" sequence. For sure, Anne Hathaway is a delightful young actress, who, like Jackman, is strong and smart enough of a thespian to know how to tackle emotionally tricky parts like Fantine. But even an actress as resourceful as Anne can't outrun her director's tasteless portrayal of Fantine's suffering, which she allows herself to perform as a simplified "brave, crossbearing whore" trope. No, for my money I'd go with Helen Hunt (albeit, in a terrific LEAD performance) who bears her body and her soul in much more beautifully layered ways as a sex therapist in an emotionally-dead relationship who begins to fall for her patient (who's sensitive chemistry is so important in portraying it's sex-positive message).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin for "Argo"
Robert De Niro for "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman for "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones for "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz for "Django Unchained"
Will/Should Win: Your guess is as good as mine in terms of the will. I'd be a little more confident in predicting Tommy Lee Jones, if Christoph Waltz didn't decide to become the frontrunner all of a sudden (is it 2009?), but I think I'm going to anyway, mostly in hopes that it sticks. It'd certainly make me happy! Jones provides Lincoln with all of it's outraged passion and complexity, and is one of the many elements that brings a fresh air to the film and to his own, usually monotonous mannerisms (this and Hope Springs makes for such a terrific year).
Best Animated Feature
"Brave"
"Frankenweenie"
"Paranorman"
"The Pirates! Band of Misfits"
"Wreck-It Ralph"
Will/Should Win: Making a bold move here and going with Frankenweenie. While there are sound arguments in regards to Brave and Wreck-it Ralph taking the statue. Brave feels too divisive, while Wreck-it Ralph (which does have supporters aplenty) might not be as appealing to others. It might just be Frankenweenie, Tim Burton's cleverest and most passionate film in years, that has the most favorable odds.
Best Foreign Language Film
"Amour"
"Kon-Tiki"
"No"
"A Royal Affair"
War Witch"
Will/Should Win: Amour. Need I say more? I haven't seen any of the other nominees as of yet, but I can't wait to see No.
Best Documentary
"5 Broken Cameras"
"The Gatekeepers"
"How to Survive a Plague"
"The Invisible War"
"Searching for Sugar Man"
Will Win: As much as I wish it was How to Survive a Plague, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Documentary branch will follow suit eith the precursors and go with Searching for Sugar Man.
Should Win: How to Survive a Plague, for it's rousing, emotionally-stirring arrangement of archival footage to tell an empowering story, while shedding light on the gay community's three-decade struggle with the disease. I have never felt prouder of my community than I have while watching this powerful documentary.
Note: Since I'm releasing these later than I wish, I'll provide my predictions for the tech categories without commentary.
Best Cinematography
"Anna Karenina"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Skyfall
Best Costume Design
"Anna Karenina"
"Mirror Mirror"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
"Snow White & The Huntsman"
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Should Win: Mirror Mirror
Best Film Editing
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Makeup/Hairstyling
"Hitchcock"
"The Hobbit"
"Les Miserables"
Will/Should Win: Les Miserables
Best Original Score
"Anna Karenina"
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Best Original Song
"Chasing Ice" for the song "Before My Time"
"Life of Pi" for the song "Pi's Lullaby"
"Les Miserables" for the song "Suddenly"
"Skyfall" for the song "Skyfall"
"Ted" for the song "Everybody Needs a Best Friend"
Will/Should Win: Skyfall
Best Production Design
"Anna Karenina"
"The Hobbit"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina
Best Sound Editing
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Skyfall"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Sound Mixing
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
"Skyfall"
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Skyfall
Best Visual Effects
"The Avengers"
"The Hobbit"
"Life of Pi"
"Snow White & The Huntsman"
Will/Should Win: Life of Pi
Now to recap:
Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Original Screenplay: Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Actress: Emanuelle Riva
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Makeup: Les Miserables
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Production Design: Life of Pi
Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Best Sound Mixing: Argo
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
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